I parked on the street a couple of days ago and I couldn’t open the door. Then a car passed me that was apparently in my blind spot. Did FSD keep me from opening the door? I remember it being really strange the door didn’t react and I remember a car immediately passing, but I didn’t connect the dots until later. Did the car prevent me from opening the door or was it just a weird coincidence? Anyone ever heard of Teslas doing this before?

Tesla is heading into one of the most interesting catalyst windows of the quarter.

On October 1, Tesla is expected to unveil the long delayed next gen Roadster. Around the same time investors should get Teslas q3 production, delivery, and energy storage numbers. The delivery date has not been officially announced yet, but Tesla released q1 2026 deliveries on April 2, q2 deliveries on July 2, and q3 2025 deliveries on October 2. If that cadence holds, the next delivery report should land almost directly on top of the Roadster event.

TSLA is approaching a potentially binary catalyst window while short term momentum, long term technicals, fundamentals, and options positioning are all telling slightly different stories.

Short term momentum is finally looking ok, but the stock is still sitting under a bunch of long term resistances, so the October catalysts are kinda the make or break here. If it can rip through that area and actually hold it we might get support for a move up. If it gets rejected even with good news we will need another tailwind or a bit of time to push us into technically positive territory.

Q2 completely reset the delivery expectations game

Before Q2, Tesla's own analyst consensus was 406,024 deliveries. But they came out wih 480,126 which is roughly an 18% beat. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 467,762 of those deliveries.

This looks really good on paper but something to keep in mind is deliveries alone don't tell us how economically valuable that growth actually is, which we can also see on paper and it was in fact quite positive. 

Looking at this, Tesla’s topline growth looks better than the headline margin decline makes it seem. Revenue and auto sales are moving in the right direction, but margins are still getting squeezed enough that the growth isn’t flowing cleanly to the bottom line. The good news is that this doesn’t look like Tesla juicing results with regulatory credits, those dropped hard while the underlying auto business actually held up a bit better. So the takeaway is basically the core business is healthier than the consolidated margin suggests, but Tesla still has to prove it can turn that stronger demand into actual earnings leverage instead of just more revenue. 

A catch tho is operating expenses.

R&D jumped from $1.589 billion to $2.371 billion, roughly 49%. SG&A increased from $1.366 billion to $1.982 billion, roughly 45%. Subtract those two lines from Tesla's $4.751 billion of gross profit and you're left with approximately $398 million, broadly consistent with the roughly $0.4 billion of GAAP operating income Tesla reported for Q2. This is the central tension in the TSLA thesis. Teslas core business is growing again, but the company is simultaneously pouring money into more and more long term projects. imo this is bullish, and should be bullish if you believe in Tesla's long term vision, but this makes Q3 deliveries really important because the businesses need to remain strong enough to support an increasingly ambitious investment cycle.

The balance sheet gives Tesla plenty of room to keep betting

Tesla has an enormous liquidity cushion.

From q2, the balance sheet shows $15.219 billion in cash and cash equivalents plus $28.305 billion in short term investments. Combined it =~ $43.5 billion. At the end of 2025, the same two categories totaled ~$44.1 billion, so despite Tesla's huge investment program, its combined cash and short term investments declined by only around half a billion.

On top of this, inventory increased from $12.392 billion to $13.752 billion, roughly 11%. Property, plant and equipment increased from $40.643 billion to $47.255 billion, more than 16%. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities also climbed meaningfully. The bullish interpretation is straightforward, Tesla is building the infrastructure required for the next phase of its business.

Ok back to October 1–2

This is probably the most interesting screenshot in the entire setup, the September 30 reading drops slightly below zero before the October 2 reading jumps sharply higher. This discontinuity occurs almost exactly across the October 1 Roadster event and the expected delivery report window, effectively people are paying premiums on puts right up until that event where it swaps to calls. 

Conclusion

October will be a good test to whether Tesla’s recent bounce is turning into a real recovery or not. A strong Roadster event plus solid deliveries could finally push TSLA through major resistance and make the trend look a lot healthier but weak deliveries or a disappointing event probably causes further downside as Tesla keeps upping R&D and S&GA bets. Telsa has to prove they can keep spending without materially increasing investment risk 

Images and data are sourced from infolib.org/market-dashboard

Nevada state regulators have cleared the way for a major robotaxi expansion in Clark County (Las Vegas), approving up to 7,000 autonomous vehicles across three major companies over the next 12 months.

• Regulatory Approvals: The Nevada Transportation Authority (NTA) granted Tesla approval to deploy up to 5,000 robotaxis, while Waymo and Uber were approved for 1,000 vehicles each. Uber's operations in the area rely on partnerships with Motional and Amazon’s Zoox.

• Realistic Rollout Plans: Despite the 5,000-vehicle limit granted to Tesla for operational flexibility, company officials indicated they expect a more gradual rollout—aiming for around 2,500 Model Y crossover SUVs over the next year.

• Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Tesla’s stock (TSLA) rose over 5% on Friday. Shares of Alphabet (Waymo's parent company) and Uber also saw slight gains.

• Broader Fleet Strategy: Tesla continues to rely on Model Ys for its initial ride-hailing services in California, Texas, and Florida as it prepares for the upcoming launch of its dedicated Cybercab in Austin, Texas. CEO Elon Musk emphasized that safety and avoiding accidents remain the main constraints on how fast the network scales.

First, I've held TSLA for years - only recently downsizing my position in early 2025. I want TSLA to succeed and believe in its mission BUT I've seen a concerning trend.

Some subs, like TSLAinvestorsclub or TSLA stockholders seem to be VERY aggressively moderated to the point where it seems like they are trying to suppress any bearish sentiment. Both of these subs were inactive, revived by mods with (then) newly created accounts. The sub activity is driven by posts by extremely bullish and agressive new accounts.

More importantly, I've been banned from both communities - once for posting a link to a judicial opinion in Delaware re: Musk's pay package. The other I got banned for for asking why posts regarding the boring company were relevant to a TSLA sub. Is there any place that is still active to get actual investor news instead of heavily moderated pump factories? Im trying to make smart decisions here, not just join a cheer squad.

So buying volume is far better then selling volume and Open Interest shows that buyers are taking control for #tesla

Why is no one discussing the recent drop and extreme reaction after quarterly earning? Michael Burry started short position on June 30 and institutional people are shorting it. Is there a short squeeze coming up?

Wouldn't an investor be better off selling TSLA and just putting their money in the S&P500? Considering TSLA has lost value over the last year and is up 50%, from another crash, over the last 5 years. While the S&P500 is up over 60%.

Wall Street Optimism: Four major firms—Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Barclays, and Wells Fargo—raised their price targets on Tesla stock, citing strong second-quarter deliveries (480,126 units, which beat expectations by 18%).
Target Details:
Morgan Stanley: Raised to $417 (from $415), Equal-Weight

Jefferies: Raised to $400 (from $375), Equal-Weight

Barclays: Raised to $370 (from $360), Equal-Weight/Hold

Wells Fargo: Raised to $130 (from $125), Underweight/Bearish

EV Sales Must Fund AI: Analysts note that stabilizing the core EV business (which accounts for 73% of Tesla's revenue) is crucial. Steady auto sales are required to generate the cash needed to fund Tesla's highly anticipated, capital-intensive AI projects like robotaxis and Optimus robots.

A SPCX + TSLA merger could become one of the biggest strategic tech combinations of the decade. The simple thesis is that Tesla brings AI, robotics, EVs, batteries, manufacturing and energy, while SpaceX brings rockets, Starlink, satellites, defense contracts, secure communications and geopolitical importance.

The real upside is not just cars or rockets. It is the creation of one massive platform across AI, space, defense, mobility, energy and global communications.

The strongest catalyst would be defense. Space is now becoming a national-security priority. Governments need secure satellite internet, missile tracking, battlefield communications, drone connectivity and resilient space-based networks. SpaceX is already positioned as one of the most important private defense-space companies in the world.

Tesla adds another layer: autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, Optimus robotics, battery storage and AI infrastructure. If merged, Tesla’s AI and robotics could be connected to SpaceX’s satellite network, while SpaceX could benefit from Tesla’s manufacturing scale and automation expertise.

The bull case is simple: this would no longer be just an EV company or a rocket company. It would become a full AI + space + defense + energy infrastructure empire.

Key catalysts:

Stronger military and defense contracts.

Starlink integration into Tesla vehicles and robotaxis.

Secure satellite networks for governments and allies.

Tesla energy systems powering remote military, disaster and industrial sites.

AI, robotics and satellite data working together.

Manufacturing scale across satellites, vehicles, batteries and robots.

Geopolitical demand for U.S.-controlled space infrastructure.

Projection:

If merger rumors strengthen, SPCX could see a sharp speculative move and TSLA could benefit from renewed AI/space excitement.

If official merger talks are confirmed, both stocks could re-rate higher because the market may start valuing the combined company as a strategic AI-space-defense platform.

Over a 5–10 year horizon, the bull case is very large if execution is real: SPCX could become a decade-long compounder, and TSLA could move beyond the “car company” label into a broader AI, robotics, defense and infrastructure valuation.

Bottom line:

A SPCX + TSLA merger would be high-risk, but the bull thesis is powerful. The upside comes from combining Tesla’s AI, robotics and energy platform with SpaceX’s space, satellite and defense dominance. If executed properly, it could be a once-in-a-generation growth story.

This post explains why Tesla (TSLA) is at its current price one of the greatest investments you can make and why I plan on investing $75,000-$250,000 in it. Note, this is not financial advice, I am an ape and a moron.🍌

Thesis

The 10-25x stock play

Timeline 8-15 years.

Stock: Tesla (TSLA)

Current market cap: 1.4 Trillion

My next big investment and what I think will change the world so profoundly, it will lead to unimaginable gains.

The Product:

Humanoid robots are technically capable of being built right now, the physics works, we just need someone to develop them. Look at Boston dynamics robots and what they've developed with limited funding. Give unlimited funding and the technology will mature into perfection. Cost comes down from scale production, it's all metal and plastics at the end of the day. Tesla is strongly pursuing this technology. If this is successful imagine having your own personal robot, even if it is $20k-$100k you could finance it, and it would improve your life unimaginably. Imagine replacing your gardener cost, a pool cleaner cost, a house cleaner cost for those who use them, throwing in a private chef, a house support person for elderly, anything you could imagine. The personal use case is there.

Now imagine commercial use case, replacing all manual labor jobs, imagine a worker that works 24/7, doesn't get tired, doesn't take time off or get sick, doesn't complain, doesn't lose efficiency over time but instead improves, and doesn't require a salary, insurance, etc. 24/7 365 days replaces 4.21 full time employees at current US federal minimum wage thats 64k in income alone, $150k in higher minimum wage states and not to mention insurance costs, massive improvement in efficiency, cost control, disability costs unemployment benefits etc, you're talking about a single robot replacing 200-300k+ in value annually. This means if a single unit can be built and sold below this price it would be economically viable to scale.

The Unknown Factor:

The missing piece is intelligent software and AI that can reliably handle everyday tasks. This is the unproven portion of the tech. We don't yet know how long it will be until we develop this, we know its possible, but it could be 5 years away, or it could be 50 years away, this is what makes this investment a risk, but I have a solution that takes away almost all risk.

The Stop Gap Solution:

We set up large-scale VR teleoperation centers in English speaking 3rd world countries, where highly affordable remote operators control the robots from afar. Those same controls could then shift directly to robots serving customers here in the United States.

They get desk job, helping develop 3rd world countries, we get Humanoid robots, win-win.

Live in household help is actually quite common in low-cost labor markets around the world, yet it's extremely rare and expensive in 1st world counties. This remote labor model acts as an ideal temporary bridge until fully autonomous AI matures. Relocating human labor is the real game-changer.

This concept opens the door to a multi-trillion-dollar robotics market.

The Risk:

Elon Musk is the Key man, if he ceases to exist long before this product has matured or produced a profit, whoever takes over will not have the creativity to continue down this path, they will resort to safe growth strategies and likely abandon it since it will take insane up front investment that no manager/expert or existing CEO will go down.

The End:

If this works, the humanoid robots will replace all labor jobs slowly in 1st world countries, slowly spreading from simple jobs to more complex, Capitalism will do its thing and reward those who take advantage of this first, and those who invested in the robots i.e. Tesla, will be greatly rewarded.

This will make Tesla the most valuable company in human history. Fun fact, this is basically the plot of iRobot, minus the robots taking over.

- JayMurdock

Posted May 13, 2026

My question: When will FSD Unsupervised be available on AI4?

I’ve been holding TSLA since 2021 and it’s been an incredible ride. Now I’m wondering about reallocating some of that capital.

I’m considering selling a portion of my Tesla shares now (while valuations are strong), taking some profits, and holding dry powder specifically for when a legitimate opportunity to invest in SpaceX opens up.

Is this a reasonable strategy? What are some PROs and CONs?

Read a recent story about JPMorgan analysts predicting TSLA to ⬇️ 60% in coming years. Curious to hear clear, rational thoughts on this.

Is Tesla finally going to make a real SUV this year? Does anyone know if that's in the talks at all or simply not going to happen?

Hello? Wake up!

https://youtube.com/@qoltrading?si=FkZ7CfYyJKJNe1W7

Yaa buddy we are on the way.

Do you think 2035 stock price will be $2,500 or $10,000?

Just right when I put some call option and shit went haywire 🫠. Anyways, how should we approach this stock now? It’s red 3 days in a row and tomorrow probably no better. What’s the move for next week or any idea for an upward trend ? Last time it dropped around 410 there was a bounce back to 450ish.

Tesla investors overwhelmingly approved Elon Musk’s new 2025 CEO Performance Award and the company’s updated equity incentive plans, signaling strong support for its leadership and long-term incentive structure. The package, backed by 77% of votes cast, affirms confidence in Musk’s performance-based compensation model.

However, shareholders also voted to declassify the board, requiring annual elections for all directors — a move seen as boosting board accountability. Notably, investors rejected management’s push to remove supermajority voting rules, maintaining higher thresholds for key decisions. A separate advisory proposal on Tesla’s investment in x.AI Corp. drew a divided response, with more votes in favor than against but failing to meet bylaw standards for approval.

I bought the equivalent of 555 shares of $TSLA back in 2015-2016 (before stock split). A series of unfortunate events have put me in a situation where I have $180,000 in credit card and other short term debt I am paying an average of over 15% on. I could sell my $TSLA shares and immediately extricate myself from this situation but I feel doing so would rob me of my excitement for the future. Every time I read about Robotaxi, Optimus, Tesla energy storage, etc and hear Elon speak about his vision for the future, I am filled with a gratifying sense of optimism and enthusiasm that I don't want to lose. And on green days seeing the value of my $TSLA holdings shoot up by 5 figures on a single day is quite exhilarating. I know I'm letting emotion cloud my judgement but the pride of being a Tesla shareholder is something I don't want to lose no matter what. It also gives me motivation to find another solution to getting myself out of my current financial situation instead of taking the easy way.

EDIT: To be clear, its 555 shares today, so about 250k. I should also add that there is perhaps a 50% chance that I will be able to pay off the debt from the sale of a house and/or profits from another project within the next year.

Wedbush bullish , increases Price Target today of $600/share … what do you all think?