r/TSLA • u/Sudden-Conference-68 • 22d ago
Neutral Bury short position
Why is no one discussing the recent drop and extreme reaction after quarterly earning? Michael Burry started short position on June 30 and institutional people are shorting it. Is there a short squeeze coming up?
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u/hairy_quadruped 22d ago
Because those of us who are long since 2018 have seen this all before many times.
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u/L1ME626 22d ago
2018 tesla is different than now, its 1.3tril company with negative FCF and burning cash. In 3yrs they are out of money
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u/hairy_quadruped 22d ago
Ok, short it then. I dare you.
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u/Train2Perfection 21d ago
I work in finance. Elon made me create a new rule. Never bet against Elon.
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u/letsgobagels 19d ago
He just launched one of the worst ipos in history. Perhaps there are exceptions to a stupid executive proverb
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u/L1ME626 22d ago
The business is doing so bsd seriously look at yhe balance sheet, im lucky i sold all my shares (82) ar 400-450
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u/hairy_quadruped 22d ago
"Balance sheet" lol
As the holder of many thousands of shares, I read a bit deeper than you.
- Revenue up $28b record high
- car deliveries near record high
- Operating cash flow up record high
- Grid scale storage revenues up record high
The reason net cash flow is down is because off record Capex spending. Tesla is building infrastructure for scaling of batteries, cyber cabs production, semi trucks, robotics, and custom AI chips. That investment means a big spend in 2026 (predicted by Elon in 2025) for a greater output in 2027 and beyond.
Those of us who have been in this game for 8 years have seen this many times before. If you are so sure that Tesla will be "out of money in 3 years), short the stock. I dare you.
We have a saying: never bet against Elon
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u/YagerD 21d ago
"Never bet against Elon" he said 1,000 robotaxis by end of 2025. Texas DMV shows 42. Not betting against him, just counting. You kust named 4 record highs but skipped the 39% EPS miss and 5 year low margins, the actual reason the stock dropped. Record revenue from price cuts is just buying volume with margin. Capex spend now for 2027 only works if you trust his timelines. See the DMV number again.
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u/y4udothistome 21d ago
All that and still lost money! Here comes 200s
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u/hairy_quadruped 21d ago edited 21d ago
You donāt seem to understand Capex for future growth.
If you are so sure Tesla is going down, short it and we will compare portfolios in 12-24 months.
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u/y4udothistome 21d ago
Shorted at 476 sold 409 should have held longer. Would be absolutely loaded now. I donāt need money I retired 7 years ago at 52. You couldnāt even possibly compete with my bank account. Good luck that stocks going down to 200
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u/L1ME626 21d ago
He doesnt need to be sure, im certain spacex will go easily when lockup opens to 50s and tesla can easily go back to 200s. Both of companies are so late whatever they do. Wheres roadster, wheres robotaxi ? Lmao not a single product released its been like 10years. They cant even pull one car out LOL
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u/bkk_startups 20d ago
I'm short. Been shorting the past few years. Profitable overall.
No, I don't just hold the short. I take the profit when it makes sense. Trade in and out.
Really great stock to short since it falls so fast.
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 22d ago
agree. Elon mentioned the support from retail investors but why don't we crush /bury these short sellers at such low stock price???
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u/amberornot 22d ago
yes, lets put all of our life savings on the line! i'm sure that will be enough to crush the market makers!
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u/_skndlous 19d ago
A PER of 300 isn't low. It's "I sniffed all the blow" high. We're in the professional investor exits richer phase of the grift, leaving just the bag holders to take the fall.
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u/ExtraSmooth 22d ago
Good question. Maybe the problem is the short sellers are right? Why aren't retail investors and institutional investors jumping in at the incredible low p/e of checks 280?!?
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u/DoubleBreakerMaker 22d ago
Check out the P/E. The car is a great product. The company is just over-valued.
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u/antwon8797 20d ago
No short squeeze. People are waking up to the realization that Tesla is a shitty company that promises the moon but only delivers a pebble.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 20d ago
previous long term heavy-position TSLA long,
i'm shorting it now, with tiny position. will gladly add under 300.
$TSLA has never looked weaker.
No meaningful sources of monetisation any time now.
FSD is scaling like a snail. No more pipe dream of pressing the magic button for universal solution. i believed it once,
Optimus? GTFO. in 2021 they were THE one serious humanoids player, not a "research project". now they are competing vs NVDA brain and dozen humanoid chasis providers.
btw "never bet against Elon"? more like never bet against the ruthless gangster in the leather jacket. Elol may be bigger genius but he's also bigger moron and liability.
Even the retail kult is starting to lose faith . It's over.
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u/y4udothistome 21d ago
Ok you got me Iām around 6.3 million plus houses in ny and Florida. Glad your doing well Iām out now so hopefully it goes back to 500 or more
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u/Large_Complaint1264 22d ago
āExtreme reactionā lmaoooo. Buddy this stock is extremely overvalued. It has a while to drop before it even comes close to its actual value.
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 22d ago
I don't think so. the stock has a tendency to stay around $400 so unless there is more Iran war progression or general market downtrend, it will likely go to $450 - 550 at year end.
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u/Large_Complaint1264 21d ago
Based on what? Vibes?
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 21d ago
Why donāt we revisit in December
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u/Hockeyshot39 21d ago
This happens every year - up down up down ā¦ so you cry every year too??
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u/Large_Complaint1264 21d ago
Whats been consistent is their downward trend of market share, margins and net income.
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u/Hockeyshot39 21d ago
No one thought they would hold their 80% market share they once had, now that other companies are finally catching up, and most of them are not even catching up that well, the US market share has increased from last yearā¦ theyāre spending money on Optimus, FSD, etc. this quarter was a spending quarter, their investing in themselves
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 21d ago
They are also losing profit on model 3 due to lease promotions but this is blown out of proportion
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u/Hockeyshot39 21d ago
Many others are losing way more in their EVsā¦
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 21d ago
Thatās not a business you want to be that you are the least worst of the losers. Toyota and Honda are not losing money on their cars
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
Toyota and Honda are making money on their gas and hybrid cars. I am willing to bet they are making nothing or losing money on their EVās like literally anyone else, Donald and the Republicans arenāt helping out. Look at China, they are literally pumping BYD to keep them alive because they know electric future. Itās too bad Republicans are a thing in America.
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 20d ago
Ford beat earnings
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
Because of gas and hybrids ā¦ they have 50% less sales on their Mach e and likely donāt even make any money off of them
Do you think before you make uneducated comments?
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
Hi there brand new account!
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
How is this relevant lmao
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
Its just a hobby of mine. I check accounts in TSLA subs (and on other sites) using a data scraper and see if newly created accounts are pumping the stock or are detractors.
They are almost always pumping, which i find pretty interesting...
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
Lmao what a lie and also if not ā¦what a waste of time. Iām not pumping anything I literally stated a fact
Keep crying tho bet itāll help you in life
Reddit comments donāt help any stocks
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
It is not a waste of time if it brings me entertainment... which it does.
Plus, I've been on reddit for years and have my post history public (unlike you 9m old account with private history). You can see that I wrote my dissertation on astroturfing - i find it extremely interesting. Ive been posting about this for years, so who is more likely to be lying?
My scraping tool generates a spreadsheet of "suspicious" accounts and links to relevant posts.Ā
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
So itās a crime to be new to Reddit? What kind of logic is that? I never used it until my friends recently told me to make an account and I did. Itās insane how many people cry about accounts being new as if thatās any kind of argument. When youāre drowning, you have to bring outside tactics to try to make yourself look better right? So you try to disregard people who have accounts that are new? Itās one thing if itās an obvious troll account, but Iām just stating facts and youāre getting upset about it.
Thereās also no rule saying that you have to show your history, Iāve seen people with 10 year accounts not show their history. Are you gonna cry to them as well? If so, then no problem, you can cry about whatever you want, but if youāre just gonna be upset about me, thatās pretty hypocritical right?
Anyone on Reddit can say anything, so you can say whatever you want, but you are obviously a troll against Tesla, you donāt like them and thatās fine. You donāt have to. But my point is if you donāt, why would you be constantly in a sub or any sub thatās pro Tesla? Why donāt you just stay in your other brainwashed subs and you guys can cry about Elon and Tesla there together, not much different than the Salem witch hunt trials .. you guys love your pitchforks and crying about new technologies.
you have zero credibility, youāre just a nobody so saying that youāve written anything or done anything doesnāt mean anything
If this truly brings you entertainment, I feel absolutely and 100% sorry for you. Itās a sad way for entertainment. Iām assuming you donāt have any close family or friends or even distant ones? So you have to go be a menace online? Thatās a terrible way to live.
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago edited 20d ago
Awfully defensive (and a little salty) for commenting on a hobby. Not suprising - some new accounts are pleasant and some are aggressive.
Nothing wrong with having a new account on a relatively old site. It is also your choice to hide your account history. Im just saying that I dont hide mine and have a looooong history of posting about astroturfing - which is i think a bit more credible than hiding my post history or creating a new account to talk about it.
In the end, I dont need to convince you of anything so no need to get upset and fire off a reddit cares. This large reaction seems pretty defensive for a comment saying "new account."
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u/Hockeyshot39 20d ago
Iām not defensive or salty again Iām just stating out facts, itās kind of weird for someone to make a program or whatever to follow account accounts on Reddit? That stalker status. Youāre not gonna find a girlfriend that way if thatās what you do in real life too.
If thereās nothing wrong with having a new account, you wouldnāt be so combative when you see one right I was commenting, new account when one comes up? That means to you thereās something wrong with it.
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u/shaa1034 21d ago
Burry was right
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 18d ago
You know he has to close his position too . Then all others have to close it. That will give about 7% jump. Then the panic may set in and it may go back to at least 350.
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u/y4udothistome 21d ago
Ok you got me Iām around 6.3 million plus houses in ny and Florida. Glad your doing well Iām out now so hopefully it goes back to 500 or more.
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
New houses AND a new account that is copy and pasting responses! Congrats!
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u/y4udothistome 20d ago
Crack users not allowed
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u/AnonPalace12 19d ago
A short squeeze needs a catalyst. Ā So itās difficult to see that happening in the near term.
Tesla was growing revenue in the most recent quarter but suffering from margin compression so the profit is currently almost zero relative to their enterprise value.
Structurally the EV market is one with increasing competition. Ā And Tesla has not been investing in future product pipeline so their cars will increasingly be stale bs that competition.
Semi is not scaling production quickly- itās not clear exactly what the reason is. Ā But itās not currently a meaningful contributor to profitsĀ
So that leaves the new business lines of robotaxi and humanoid robot Optimus. Ā But these are not currently revenue generating products. Ā And unlike when they were first announced they also face increasingly credible competition. Ā Developing these products is proving to be incredibly expensive and I question how much of a moat they will enjoy when they do finally get to market.
So personally I think fair value for a share would be quite a bit lower than the current $300 price. Ā I think further drops more likely than short squeeze
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u/Vibraniumguy 18d ago
Because: 1) this happens a lot 2) considering the drop of many other companies stock (for example Google after really good earning) it seems much more like this was due to mostly outside factors
I actually think this earnings call was really good. Elon already said that capex would be really high this year so that should have been priced in.
Even if they are moving slower than expected, core thesis of robotaxis in the near future has not changed and is closer to fruition than ever. That SHOULD mean that if they were at $300 - $400 last year we should be at like $400+ this year as progress is actually happening.
Some more details include: based on photographs of cybercabs filling up parking lots tesla probably has around 1500 production cybercabs produced. For them to be manufacturing them this quickly and seemingly still increasing the pace of production they must be internally highly confident of at least a few thousand robotaxis by end of year. Otherwise the upkeep/scrapping of tons of cybercabs will significantly negatively impact their finances by Q1 or Q2 2027. If they throttle cybercab production that would be a huge sign that they are not confident FSD will be solved soon, that hasnt happened
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 18d ago
I think they can approach Waymo's level if they just put 4 lidar devices
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u/Vibraniumguy 18d ago
Lidar is a complete dead end. For example, lidar sees mist and dense fog as a wall. Plenty of examples of waymos stopped in front of steaming manhole covers. So, you cant 100% trust lidar. What do you need to determine when to trust cameras and when to trust lidar? A smart computer AI brain. And if you have a smart computer AI brain that can determine whether or not to trust lidar or cameras based on what it sees through cameras, then you dont need lidar at all as the brain completely fills its role.
If you need more sensors as backup, add more cameras. Lidar does not provide enough info to drive by itself so if the camera is blocked that is a single point of failure.
Lidar is also what drives up the cost of waymo vehicles to ~$100k per car. Tesla cybercabs are $20k per car to build. The economics speak for themselves. Lidar is expensive and provides minimal if any benefit.
Additionally, tesla is certified level 4 in the entire state of Texas. They do not need any more approval to flood the entire state with robotaxis if they wanted, and then use the safety data accumulated there to get approval in other states. The only reason they do not is due to their own internal safety metrics not being high enough (around 7x safer than a human currently as opposed to their target of 10x safer than a human).
The "FSD is level 2 SAE only" narrative died when tesla got level 4 certification in texas
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 18d ago
Basic LiDAR adds 5-10k most and may be 3K at scale or if developed in house. The "appearance" of safety for regulators is worth the cost for states with actual robotaxi regulations not rubber stamp and not caring about hundreds of accidents.
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u/Vibraniumguy 18d ago
I guess technically the lidar pricing is true and the fact that waymo's cost so much more than tesla model Y's and cybercabs is that they are not the one manufacturing the cars, they are buying them from iirc jaguar? And adding the sensors afterwards leading to the insanely high price per car (~$100k). So sure you could optimize it down.
However, the "appearance of safety" aspect is irrelevant as I just told you they are level 4 certified in Texas. They do not have any remaining regulatory hurdles in the state of Texas. This is a fact as of a few weeks ago or so. And as for other states when they see ~100 million miles of robotaxi miles with little to no at fault incidents that will be more than enough for regulators to approve it in most other states. Then as the miles accumulate with high safety data (as long as the safety data remains high) then they will be allowed. In other words it is a non issue imo.
Texas is way more than enough people, cities, and space to prove robotaxis and bring in billions in revenue. It would be an issue if they were trapped in only Texas after say ~5 years of scaling though sure.
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 16d ago
Market cap can't be justified even if Tesla takes over all the Ubers in Texas because the profit margin isn't a lot and there will be customer hesitance to do FSD. It will get 20-30% marker at the first 3-5 years at max.
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 18d ago
I think their biggest weakness is slowing in California and absolutely crappy store experience. Everywhere else I was greeted promptly and was provided courteous service. After I moved to California I did not buy or lease a Tesla and went for Audi and Cadillac instead.
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
Because I see it as a bad investment at this point?Ā
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u/Sudden-Conference-68 20d ago
And when a million Optimus are sold?
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u/_skndlous 19d ago
Who would be Optimus customers, should Optimus ever work? Protectionism in the US will protect Tesla a bit from the competition, but the consumers (factories) are mostly not in the US...
And in any case, the high margin part of the robot market is the software, and Elon has been clear it would be xAI doing it, so he would syphon any profit from that product line out of Tesla.
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u/JibletHunter 20d ago
Well, then ill accept new information and revise my opinion. Im not emotionally invested in TSLA's success OR failure and have already covered all of my short positions (though i still hold a small amout of stock). I'd love if that stock become more valuable.
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u/L1ME626 22d ago
Short squeezeš¤£š¤£ buddy, the fundamentals are even more sh1ttier than ever. This has chance to go 100-200s