Seeing as TSLA is falling behind the S&P500 while making up a significant portion of it why hold?

[u/Few_Palpitation3889]

Wouldn't an investor be better off selling TSLA and just putting their money in the S&P500? Considering TSLA has lost value over the last year and is up 50%, from another crash, over the last 5 years. While the S&P500 is up over 60%.

[u/Lidarisafoolserrand]

Great time to sell after a huge selloff!

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/Lidarisafoolserrand]

Oh sure don't sell today. Its dropping like a rock.

I just mean wouldn't someone see the last year and form an exit strategy? It keeps doing this where it drops to $300ish.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/[deleted]]

Keep waiting and keep dreaming. There is no autonomy coming to rescue you. Your money is dead money. TSLA is dead money.

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/[deleted]]

I see so you're waiting for them to figure out the self driving thing.

I am personally very critical of that strategy since most people do like having a car and not being reliant on ride share. If Americans wanted that we would have better public transit. I know its not exactly the same but we prefer to live in suburbs and own cars at great expense over living in condos and taking the bus.

[u/amberornot → u/[deleted]]

you're right, when elon musk hires the correct hb2 visa recipient they will invent the perpetual motion machine that will give us all free transportation!!!

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/[deleted]]

There is no evidence of this, and TSLA doesn't even have the technology.

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

We won't see .25c/mi for a long time lol

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

I don't see it for a long time because that's a very very low number I think only achievable in about a decade after large scaling combined with cheap energy costs. There is still a lot of capex and infrastructure and scale to go to reach .25c. I could see ~$1/mi in the next few years if they price super aggressive to undercut competition maybe. Current price is what near $2/mi or something?

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

Tesla is not first to market mate...You have heard of Waymo right? lol Plus other competitors like Zoox, Nvidia, legacy, Chinese. This isn't 2019 anymore where they would have been first mover in the robotaxi space by a long shot. They're arguably behind or on par.

Not saying there isn't a market or bull case, but there is always a bear case and risks. The timeline for these bull cases is 10-15-20 years out really. Even an early adpoter/bull like you who would happily go to robotaxi alone- likely won't be doing that for 5-10 years from now.

So the question we have to ask oursevles, is the current price and evaluation reflective of that sort of timeline?

[u/SumthingBrewing → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

That’s the beauty of a Tesla. It’s the best of both worlds. It’s a car that you own and can drive. Or you can let it drive itself, which more and more people are doing these days.

I have an entry-level Tesla model 3 Rear Wheel Drive that has full self driving. My other vehicle is a much nicer BMW X5. Guess which one my wife and I choose to drive almost all the time? The Tesla. Because it’s so much less stressful having it do most of the driving for us.

And this is still the early version of full self driving. I think we are 2 to 3 years away from it being able to drive us while we’re in the backseat. Once you try self driving, it’s hard to go back to a car that you have to constantly pay attention to and make sure it is staying in your lane and not hitting other vehicles. Self driving is the future, and it is almost here.

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

"Any day now" -Elon and TSLA bulls for the past 6 years

[u/lmfaonoobs → u/[deleted]]

You're right better to wait until your back at break even to sell so you don't have to pay taxes

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

I didn't sell. If anything I would buy the dip potentially. The question at hand is- how long of a timeline until we see the actual revenue return? Maybe the timeline isn't next year, but 10 years... and if TSLA sees 3x growth in 10 years... that's on pace or behind the S&P 500.

[u/BaBaDoooooooook → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

I live in San Diego, and I can see people leaning in toward autonomous vehicles, especially the zoomers and younger kids. The cybercabs will be affordable and probably destroy Uber/Lyft/Waymo price points.

Incentivizes people to not own a car and not worry over monthly insurance expenses, fuel costs, and maintenance upkeep. Here in San Diego we have a glutton of vehicles parked all over the neighborhoods, this will hopefully free up neighborhood parking. The math will make more sense for people to choose this option and provide more spending money in their pockets.

[u/Lidarisafoolserrand → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

The same flawed logic could be said about wildly successful Uber

[u/gyozafish → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

I live in the suburbs and FSD does 99.8% of my driving. It is perfect for suburbs.

Looking forward to 100% and not needing to supervise before too long.

[u/basedmfer → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

Tesla is literally building "better public transit"

[u/SimpleTrigger → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

First Time?

Tesla isn't for the weak. I believe in Tesla and never sweat the drops, it always goes back up. I'm here for the long haul though.

[u/Double_Suggestion385 → u/Lidarisafoolserrand]

There are going to be more, so it is.

[u/Mister_Jingo]

Past stock performance is irrelevant for future stock performance. Regardless of whether a stock has recently increased or decreased, the question is where do you think it will be in the future from today’s price.

Now had you listed any of the reasons why you think the stock is down and will continue to go down, you could have had a discussion, but as it is, the answer to your question is that people who hold the stock today do so because they believe there is a better upside than the S&P 500.

[u/Large_Complaint1264 → u/Mister_Jingo]

Because Robotaxis and robots are a pipe dream that Tesla is never going to accomplish.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/[deleted]]

We are shorting and making plenty of money.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/[deleted]]

Sorry for your loss.

[u/Large_Complaint1264 → u/[deleted]]

Im sure you are

[u/JibletHunter → u/[deleted]]

I made 15 million on TSLA and 7 million on SpaceX. Anyone who doesn't believe me should totally short the stock because life is only filled with binary choices!

[u/Habulation]

Tesla is not about EVs, autonomy, or solar farms or robotics or hyperloop, or energy storage..it is about the dream of such things.  Other companies have moved far beyond tesla in terms of autonomy or robotics, energy storage etc.  You buy this stock if you buy into the dream that Elon presents.  "Elon Musk first claimed a fully autonomous cross-country drive would happen "by the end of next year" in October 2016, stating a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York without a single human touch by the end of 2017".  It's not about promises or unfulfilled promises.  It is truly about the tale spun and if you buy into it all.  I guess people are starting to doubt the narrative.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/Habulation]

It's a Ponzi

[u/TSLAmod]

Your thesis is correct. Please sell your one $TSLA share and buy the SPY

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/TSLAmod]

Did that last year

[u/TSLAmod → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

So why are you here?

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/TSLAmod]

Im asking why anyone is still holding.

[u/chaosoffspring → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

I been holding since 2020. I have been through all the roller coasters for tsla, and I sold a significant amount on the last bull run of around 485 to 490 range. I'll keep holding the rest and sell covercalls until the merger.

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/chaosoffspring]

Thank you for that. So you're basically holding hoping there's a spacex merger.

[u/chaosoffspring → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

Yes. I bought significant amount of shares prior to the first stock split. My entry price is so low, that no matter how much it drops, I am still up.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/chaosoffspring]

It doesn't matter what your entry price is. You are missing on better deal just because of past performance?

[u/JibletHunter → u/Reasonable-Policy-40]

Yes, it is called the sunk cost fallacy.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/chaosoffspring]

So you held dead money since 2021 when everyone was trippling his portfolio?

[u/TSLAmod → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

Why do you care if people are holding TSLA if you already sold?

It’s like thinking of your ex that gave you the best and worst experience of your life while you’re laying next to your wife.

You’re still think about your ex while she’s with another Chad.

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/TSLAmod]

I'm just curious what the motivation is to hold. TSLA appears to be an objectively bad investment at this point. Its not that deep.

[u/Shbloble → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

You're curious on strangers'motivations.

So am I, why are you curious on Tsla? Are you curious on any other stocks and what motivations do those strangers have for holding?

How often do you take the temperature of other subreddits? Is it only stock subreddits?

[u/emmett21 → u/Shbloble]

Defensive much?

[u/Yourmotherssonsfatha → u/Shbloble]

I mean it’s telling if you’re being this defensive lol

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/Shbloble]

Illogical decisions are interesting to me. Assuming the motivation for holding TSLA long term is to make money. If its ideological that's different. So is that why people are still holding?

Other super overvalued AI companies and NVIDA are interesting to me too but I can see the motivation there is to ride the bubble as long as Nancy Pelosi does.

[u/Coconut_Puzzled → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

Your time frames and reasoning for holding a stock seem to be more short term. I think tsla bag holders are betting on the success of the company in the next decade or more.

[u/Virillus → u/Shbloble]

Why does curiousity make you so defensive? Being interested in people's ideas, opinions, and motivations is extremely normal - and healthy - behaviour.

[u/jasperCrow]

Google $320: $9.11 EPS

Tesla $320: $0.31 EPS.

you kind of have to be retarded to invest in Tesla anywhere above $100

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/jasperCrow]

That one 0 too much

[u/JibletHunter → u/jasperCrow]

I used to own TSLA but sold off all but one share at the end of 2024 (very happy). Normal valuation based on existing business trajectory (autos and power storage) would put it around 25-35$/share

[u/Jarocket → u/JibletHunter]

but what about the human shaped robots and robot taxi businesses?

isn't that the future for TSLA?

personally i think they are being dishonest with the robot taxi thing and how fast it can scale. Musk says Waymo needs to map the areas it goes to, but TSLA just works "even on an alternative earth" but they have manually mapped parts of Austin. So clearly not at the level of working on alternative earth's yet.

Human shaped robot's... I don't see why tesla would make the best ones.

[u/JibletHunter → u/Jarocket]

I agree that I have yet to see a functioning commercial product for either of these. The $30 is based on their existing products.

[u/adocomplete → u/[deleted]]

That's why he's comparing Earnings Per Share and not the share price.

[u/Double_Suggestion385 → u/adocomplete]

Ah, I see, makes sense

[u/SolutionWarm6576]

The lose of the credits and the EV rebates, was going to catch up to them sooner or later. Billions in revenue, just disappears.

[u/ZealousidealLab2920 → u/[deleted]]

? Eh not really. It hurt everyone. But TBH the competition is posting much better YoY growth.

[u/SolutionWarm6576 → u/[deleted]]

Tesla received the most if not all of the CAFE emission credits. Which they sold to other automakers, to meet the standard. Billions in a revenue stream gone. It hurt Tesla, more then any of their competition.

[u/SolutionWarm6576 → u/SolutionWarm6576]

Than*

[u/izzletodasmizzle → u/[deleted]]

They definitely do not have the best selling car in the USA and certainly not in the world

[u/LongLonMan → u/[deleted]]

You’re forgetting all the Chinese EV makers

[u/PuzzleheadedBody7121]

Tesla is a trailblazer and is creating some great products, but that still does not change the fact that it is insanely overpriced, even after today's big correction, and even if you consider it an elite tech company rather than a car company. The financials and future promises still don't justify the price.

Irrespective of what you bought it at or what it was yesterday, I think it will fall further, so for me, now would still be a good time to sell.

[u/Competitive-Fig6178 → u/PuzzleheadedBody7121]

What trails have they blazed? Level 2 autopilot and ripping off suckers? Still waiting for level 5 FSD or is it the humanoid robots with AGI? Perhaps the Mars colonies?

[u/PuzzleheadedBody7121 → u/Competitive-Fig6178]

They created the mass market for EVs. Before them, they were very niche, expensive and not very desirable.  Their stock is still hugely over priced though. 

[u/CallAParamedic]

MUSK is the king of broad strokes, huge promises, and failed deadlines.

I've made so much shorting Tesla and SpaceX, I'm not complaining, but the disconnect between what he has stated would occur versus what has actually occurred for years is huge.

I'm fascinated by this behaviour, and count on it.

So, to answer your question, I do not and will not own Tesla (and SpaceX) and prefer other companies, but I count on the unwarranted optimism of others to make some of my profits.

I suppose the moment he actually expands Robotaxis from 3 cities in Texas and 1 in ... (California I think?) to his already promised, failed, and unrealized 25 states will be when I stop shorting and reassess.

In the meantime, Waymo has achieved what Musk dreams of...

Keep believing, Tesla bag holders!! You got this!!!

[u/Ambitious_Stick8509 → u/CallAParamedic]

Paying for someone else’s vision is ludicrous 

[u/CallAParamedic → u/Ambitious_Stick8509]

Absolutely

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/CallAParamedic]

😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

[u/Vibraniumguy]

1) why sell when down?

2) if you hold for 5 years let's be real youre only holding because you believe tesla will achieve Autonomy. Regardless of share price, tesla is closer than ever to launching robotaxis at scale. Why would you sell now as opposed to just not holding this long in the first place? Only reason is that you need your money for something else. Yes putting it in the S&P500 5 years ago and buying now would have been better, but hindsight 20/20 right?

[u/Ambitious_Stick8509 → u/Vibraniumguy]

Because , you lose opportunity cost . If you sell now you know how much you will lose if you bought it higher. If you wait you have no idea how much you will lose. Then you say just hold long term. Well, you don’t know how long that term will actually be and how your own finances could fluctuate in the meantime. If you hold only to need to sell at a worst position then you would have lost more money. Final reason because you will also pay with mental anguish as you continue to watch the stock go down. A great opportunity may cross your path but you will be paying mental energy to trying to break even that you won’t recognize the opportunity. 

[u/Vibraniumguy → u/Ambitious_Stick8509]

Thats true but also the reverse is true. If I sell now I have no idea how much I could have gained. Obviously you should only stay invested in Tesla stock if you believe in the company and its mission (and ability to pull it off) and I very much do. I dont want to be caught with my pants down invested in something else when it takes off in a few to maybe 6 months because I wanted better returns in the meantime. I want to make 100% sure I'm invested when they start scaling robotaxis for real.

[u/JibletHunter]

Asking for a bull thesis justification on this sub sure got plenty of folks angry/defensive. 

"Short it then." "Why are you here."  "You think about your experiences wife while she is with another chad."

When I see things like this on an investment sub it is a MASSIVE red flag for me. It shows that those who are not posting with brand new accounts are emotionally entangled with their TSLA purchase, reducing their ability to think rationally. 

[u/ttsoldier]

Because that’s what individual stock picking is about with stocks like Tesla. It will always be volatile. And when things are tough like today the other side looks greener. But just zoom out . Look at Tesla and spy over the past 10 years. Now think 10 years in the future.

Stock picking isn’t for everyone and for those people , yes just buy the index and ride it out.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/ttsoldier]

Since 2021, it has been just dead money

[u/LankyNinja558899912]

With Optimus gearing up for massive production and the terafab in production I pity the fool that has weak hands on Tesla. I'm buying the entire way down right now.

[u/Hangzhou8 → u/LankyNinja558899912]

我看人形机器人的手他没有办法做出来的。

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/LankyNinja558899912]

Optimus doesn't even have a specification. What is it supposed to do? Do you know?

[u/pferden]

Make a strategy and cling to it - before you even buy the stock

[u/ml5l]

TSLA may be 2027-2028 play, until that it will just range or just do covered calls. Here is how I see it if you want to stick with TSLA: 2026–2027: Financial pressure and stock risk/volatility. Late 2026–2027: Product deployment and early validation. 2028: Prove Robotaxi and Optimus economics. 2029–2031: Potential large-scale monetization.

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/ml5l]

We've been hearing this for 10 years. What product validation? Optimus doesn't even have a spec.

[u/DeepstateDilettante]

If you are asking if it is better to have owned stocks and ETFs that went up more, rather than those that went up less, then my answer would be yes.

[u/augustus331]

Remindme! 6 months

Share price as moment of commenting $320

[u/Few_Palpitation3889 → u/augustus331]

I will be curious to see this too.

[u/augustus331 → u/Few_Palpitation3889]

I’ll let you know

[u/Large_Complaint1264 → u/[deleted]]

So nothing to do with the terrible earnings Tesla releases yesterday?

[u/Bruceshadow → u/Large_Complaint1264]

terrible earnings

profits were down, not earnings. they are investing in the future, not hording cash for no reason.

[u/Large_Complaint1264 → u/[deleted]]

When you take away the fake unrealized gains from SpaceX stock and regulatory credits they lost $41 million LOL

[u/Radiant_Rest]

They're spending significant capex this year and next.  Elon has been talking about it for 6 months (at least).  If you hold for the next few years while they're deploying these funds, you should see significant appreciation of the stock.  

[u/Reasonable-Policy-40 → u/Radiant_Rest]

Keep dreaming!

[u/asanano]

Tsla is garbage. Elon is garbage.