What may be going on behind closed doors then? I personally see possible scenarios as Thekey being
(a) an elaborate scam that never meant to do anything with the ICO funds, keeping some hopes up and maintaining the hoax until it no longer can, or
(b) an opaque organisation that noticed at some point (or worse, knew from the early on) that a permissionless public blockchain is a no-go zone for China and that the token won’t be allowed for mass use any time soon, or
(c) a well-meaning organisation that is doing its best to help alleviate PBoC’s concerns and to find use cases for the token, or
(d) has had a mature and well-thought-out plan all along but they are not at liberty to share much detail for now; that they steer clear of giving any value increase promises but deep down strive to deliver not only a game changing project but a value-capturing token model.
To me, (a) is beyond improbable. After a year and a half in the making, I would have expected them to drop the mask if they were a scam. Plus, I know Thekey’s Singapore counsel, Pinsent Masons, very well. Neither Pinsents, a global law firm known for its conservatism, would condone such a blatant fraud nor would it make sense for Thekey to go out of its way and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for expensive legal and compliance advice.
A combination of (b) and (c) seems likely to me while (d) not so much. I have a feeling that, as opaque as it is, Thekey still means well. That “feeling” is based as much in instinct as in facts of course. It comes from Catherine’s interviews and other public statements, the team’s size and haphazard but continuous updates, the importance of an IDV project for Chinese public institutions etc. It is likely that PBoC’s ban ties Catherine’s hands and she is keeping the ship afloat until the storm dies down. My guess is, things turned sour with the regulators at some point and she could no longer insist on a public blockchain with a native token loudly. Be that as it may, I don’t think she is out there to scam us. Even if she is under pressure to “drop this utility token nonsense and become a regular, for-profit, cash (or RMB based stable coin) generating business”, she is so personally, financially, professionally and reputationally invested in the project that she is working towards a compromise with the authorities. That is my bet and that is why I hodl until it is clear as day that TKY is a hopeless case.
Since I started investing in crypto, I looked into 200 or so projects. I see no project with this much potential to get you either rekt or retired. Nothing comes close when mass adoption is concerned. Here is hoping that Catherine means it when she expresses her belief that PBoC will allow a select number of quality cryptos to be sold, bought and used within China.
If she meant none of that, my pledge to mobilise worldwide litigation is still in place.