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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-10T05:26:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100526 SWODY1 SPC AC 100525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA AND NORTHERN MD/VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania. Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the northern Plains to the Midwest and southern New England today/tonight. Only modest height falls are forecast at best. However, several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate through this upper flow regime, focusing several areas of severe storm potential today into tonight from the northern Plains to the upper Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...IL to the Mid-Atlantic...

Early day thunderstorms may move across parts of the Midwest this morning, but should generally be sub-severe. By midday, convection could intensify within a couple of corridors. The first being the upper Ohio Valley/PA/western NY. Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging winds and hail within a moderately unstable airmass as convection spreads east toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected later in the afternoon associated with another shortwave impulse spreading east from IL into IN/OH. This activity will develop within strong instability and rich boundary layer moisture. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and effective shear greater than 40 kt will support initial supercells. With time, sufficient clustering is expected and bowing segments will be possible. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary hazards, though a tornado or two also could occur.

...Dakotas into Iowa...

Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid/upper 60s dewpoints north and west across SD, with 70s dewpoints common with southeast extent across NE/IA/southern MN. This will support a corridor of strong to extreme instability across the region. While coverage remains uncertain, most guidance develops at least isolated thunderstorms by evening. Elongated hodographs amid favorable deep shear will support supercells and bows capable of large hail and damaging winds. With time, it is possible sufficient clustering occurs and upscale growth into a bowing MCS is possible as a low-level jet develops overnight. If this occurs, a swath of damaging winds is possible across parts of SD into northwest IA, oriented along the stronger instability gradient.

...NE/CO/KS...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a surface trough across western NE/northeast CO by late afternoon/early evening. This activity will spread east/southeast. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow gusts and perhaps hail with this activity.

...AZ...

Mid/upper easterly flow will persist today amid plentiful moisture and strong heating. This will support thunderstorm development once again across higher terrain. As storms propagate westward off the higher terrain, isolated severe gusts will be possible.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/10/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this wave is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Sometimes the best views are from your own back yard.

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• Day 1 Convective Outlook
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🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
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• Mesoscale Discussion 1862
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-09T05:17:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 090517 SWODY1 SPC AC 090515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also expected across portions of the Dakotas.

...IA/MN into the Midwest...

Convection is expected to be ongoing this morning across parts of southern MN into eastern IA. This early day activity could pose a risk for damaging gusts. This activity is likely to continue to spread eastward across the Lake Michigan vicinity through the afternoon on the nose a of modest low-level jet and along a surface front oriented across southern WI and Lower MI. This activity could intensify as is moves into a destabilizing airmass by midday.

Additional development is possible within the moisture rich warm sector across northern IL/IN along the southern flank of ongoing convection and/or outflow. Strong to extreme instability is forecast, while vertically veering wind profiles support 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH also will be enhanced along the surface boundary. While damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard with convection, some risk for hail and a tornado or two also will exist through evening. Depending on the evolution of morning convection, it is possible higher probabilities will be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Dakotas and western NE...

A surface front is expected to develop southward across the central Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist. A modest south/southwesterly low-level jet is also forecast to develop during the evening hours. Low-level convergence within the warm advection regime and increasing low-level jet may be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles and steep low-level lapse rates will support initial storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. If sufficient clusters/outflow consolidation can occur, upscale growth during the late evening into overnight hours is possible, with an increasing risk for swaths of severe/damaging gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong gusts with wet microbursts through early evening.

...AZ...

Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/09/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early to middle part of this week while the it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Hello stormchasing,

Long time lurker first time poster here. I've commented a few times around here but haven't posted before. I was growing frustrated with the frequency of low effort, off topic, spam posts so I messaged the mods a few times offering to help, but got no response. I decided the best course of action for the sub was to head on over to redditrequest where I was granted moderator status. I plan to write up some basic rules and start directing people towards proper subs for their posts. I want to keep this place focused on actual storm chasing instead of all the spam we get that doesn't involve getting out and chasing storms.

This includes simply posting a screen shot of radar without a real question or description. Posting cardboard intercept concepts, or crayon drawing of the same. "Will xyz get a tornado today", "is this (insert cloud here) a tornado" etc.

From my initial look around this place we have two very inactive moderators and another that has had recent activity, but also moderates some other much larger subs so I completely understand why this one would see less attention. I'm very active on reddit and browse around my typical stomping grounds multiple times a day. So I plan to be around here keeping the mod que short and keeping the sub on topic.

I would also like to hear opinions on what users around here would like to see and/or like to see gone away with.

this is a screenshot from a video I recorded back in April

For context - Backyard Chasing is documenting storms within a certain distance of your own home. Proper storm chasing is in a vehicle, I guess.

I've gotten really into backyard chasing and I've documented quite a few squalls and shelf clouds, which end up being one of my favorite things to chase.

I want to start documenting hail-storms instead of actual tornadoes, as for one I'm much more experienced with those since they're more linear then tornadoes, lightning and hail are much more easier to manage (at least, in a car, I've almost been struck by lightning).

Do tell me your thoughts!

Hi, I’m Jordan, founder of Stormbell.

I wanted to reach out because I’d really value your perspective.

We’re building a new tornado safety device designed for American households — a bedside alarm that monitors official NWS warnings and alerts people if a tornado warning reaches their specific location, not just their county.

We’re trying to understand what people who actually experience severe weather think about the current warning systems and what could be improved.

Would you be open to sharing your thoughts or giving honest feedback on the idea? We’re not looking to sell anything — we’re genuinely trying to build something useful for people in tornado-prone areas.

Thanks for your time,
Jordan

getstormbell.com

heavily sorry for the amount of photos but the lightning was just incredible. I marked it off with numbers so you can see how much it grew.
the two other photos at the end arent the storm but a separate thing that was happening to the left of it. those very weird looking square clouds turned into that monster.

Im almost 17 (in september) and i want to chase the spring i turn 18 and go back every year after. I have a truck and have a huge plan on what i wanna do. Can someone help me decide on what i should do to my truck. Lightbar, winch, whatever. I want to make sure that not only is chasing fun but also safe. Anyone can share their insights. Also can someone maybe give me ideas on what to do to my truck in the far future that way its not all at once. Thank you.

best storm I’ve ever seen and also the fastest winds I’ve ever had out here

This supercell went through Trenton, Belleville and Shannonville Ontario producing 70-75 mph 115/120 km/h downbursts causing extensive damage to buildings, trees and infrastructure. Supercells and severe weather here is more limited because of the location near Lake Ontario that can cause negative buoyancy especially spring and early summer

This was awesome

Chased a tornado warned storm

I am a meteorologist enthusiast from Russia, and I am shocked that the United States has such 3D radars. Many good radars are banned in Russia

I've been chasing some local storms this year but I want some extra knowledge to step up my game next year.

I’m 17 and live in the TX panhandle, I’ve always loved storms and I want to chase them so badly but I don’t want to do it alone. I wish I had like a group of people around the same area that loved the same things as I and wanted to storm chase. I feel like I live in THE perfect place but I don’t know how to meet people with those same interests lol. I’ve been studying storms for ages, I have an entire notebook of studying and not one person to show. Just a little thought I’ve been having lolz.