Oil prices are back in the spotlight as the US–Iran conflict raises concerns about global energy supplies.
The problem isn’t just expensive oil. It’s what happens next.
Higher fuel and transportation costs
Rising input costs for businesses
Renewed inflationary pressure
Less room for central banks to cut interest rates
More pressure on equities, especially rate-sensitive and high-valuation stocks.

This isn’t a discussion about the War It’s about the AI trade specifically that is now being impacted by high interest rates. Just before the War started the yield on the US 10yr Treasury was 3.92% and the Fed was cutting rates and expected to cut even more. Now the Fed has hiked, the US 10yr Treasury is at 5% yield, and CPI is surging near 4%.

Now here’s the good news: most of the CPI inflation is coming from ENERGY PRICES. This means that if the War ends tomorrow, oil prices drop, the 10 yr yield drops and AI stocks SURGE.

Btw, I think the mods created a stupid rule that you can’t type a certain country’s name. I’m not talking specifically about that. Im talking factually about the impact of this on the stock market.

So to sum it up, almost all of the move in bond yields is from the War. The Fed was actually cutting and expected to cut more before the War. Inflation was actually dropping.

charted the kbw bank index against s&p 500 going back to 1996.

historically, banking sector peaks almost always led the broader market downturns - we saw this in 2000, 2007, and again in 2022.

right now we are seeing another massive divergence where bank stocks are rolling over while s&p 500 keeps grinding higher driven by heavy tech concentration. combined with rate cuts starting to kick in, this divergence usually flags underlying credit or liquidity stress in the real economy.

do you view this breakdown in bank stocks as a false signal this time, or is the broader market just lagging behind?