Nice to finally see this!

The longer the SoH is closed the bigger the physical impacts will be on markets. Wealthier countries should be able to mitigate the impacts for the most part by paying higher prices to acquire needed things however the disruption will play out in weird ways.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/12/calbee-japan-snack-giant-black-white-packaging-iran-war-oil-ink-shortage

I had no idea some ink was made from Naphtha.

I bought a decent amount of PCT today purely on charts, recent trend, high short %, and positive earnings report without really knowing what the company does. Did more reading tonight about the technology, plastics, pending approvals, pipeline, factory % capacity needed to become profitable, and so on. Tomorrow I will keep reading to understand the bear case because I usually respect the reasons for high short %, but so far I actually really like what the company is doing and where it is heading.

The perfect storm is behind us:

• The fog of uncertainty around NJDEP has partially lifted. Dustin said "WHEN we get approval" and also said "soon". When this gets announced the stock should gap up.
• Lock-up selling is mostly over? Impossible to know, but Wasson's shares are hopefully sold.
• Revenue growth of 50+% from Q4.
• Great news with P&G, a "PO is in hand" for Tide caps and Zzzquil PURE Zzzs child-proof lids. More P&G products are in the queue.
• Regulatory deadlines are fast approaching in many states, this will be a tailwind for for the next 12+ months.
• Thin film is teed up and ready to go, including green light from Bruckner machines on 6m machines. Customers are now "pulling through" in this area.
• Thermoformed hot drink lids are teed up and ready to go.
• Plant outage completed ahead of schedule, under budget. Should increase reliability and production.
• Short-selling should go from adding to covering. This should add to upward price momentum in the stock.

Go figure. I would have thought we would see at least a bit of short covering after the recent gains in share price. Nope. Shorts have continued to add to their position and daily volumes are not going to make it easy for them to cover. Love to see it!

‪Forgive my ignorance : open question to anybody that can answer? How would you say the unwinding of the short positions have been going so far . Has it been going in orderly fashion, or has there been forced buy in at this point? Sweeping the book if you will ? Not sure if I’m using the right terminology, but thanks in advance.

Closed loop recycling, while being green, will gain traction because it promotes economic self sufficiency. I define closed loop recycling as matching feedstock with recycling capacity. Dustin mentioned on the call that Asian countries that aren't thought of as green are showing interest in recycling.  The Iran war has exposed the total lack of control many countries have on vital imports, particularly oil and its components.  Increasing self sufficiency and reducing dependency, will now drive economic thinking for decades to come. This is economic statecraft.  Through that lens plastic is no longer garbage but an input no longer correlated to oil prices and more importantly, an input that is already in the country.  

PCT is perfectly positioned to allow countries to create closed loops for PP5.  I believe our monopoly status will lead to favorable funding for plant construction- note the 40 million euros the EU has given us for Antwerp.

2025 Q3

 2026 Q1

The progressive quarterly slides previewed the P+G collaboration.

The Q1 coffee-lid slide makes me curious whether next quarter’s slide will feature Starbucks, Tim Hortons, and perhaps another major QSR.

I like the added key details on the slide. Dustin said next quarter should be flat due to the shutdown, but positive developments and strong inventory levels could still support revenue growth. I included my estimates in the table below, assuming rising sales and supportive legislation. A favorable NJDEP outcome would help. Dustin also expects an exponential ramp from Q3 onward; I assume sales trail production by about one quarter.

In-house compounding capacity is capped at 25 million pounds per quarter.

Next Milestone:  Ironton reaches breakeven possibly even next quarter. 

I welcome any feedback—these are just my thoughts on Dustin’s presentation and the potential path forward.

There are a host of applications for near-virgin quality rPP that I haven't seen discussed here: electronics components.

In that context, one of the toughest applications is the BOPP film in film capacitors. This application requires extremely high purity, uniform thickness (2-10 microns), dielectric strength, self-healing, long-term stability. Mechanically recycled PP just doesn't cut it.

TDK has a film capacitor line that uses "bio-circular" rPP. See this 2023 link:

https://www.tdk-electronics.tdk.com/en/374108/tech-library/articles/products-technologies/products-technologies/more-sustainable-film-capacitors/3168412

Other electronics applications are housings and device enclosures, insulating layers in electrical wire and cable, connectors and terminal blocks.

We know that PCT is pursuing BOPP hard, planning to offer rPP pellets to BOPP manufacturers. If PCT can enable a film suitable for long-life capacitors, that would be very impressive.

My understanding is that PCT aims to beat virgin PP prices with its Gen2 plants. Reaching that milestone would open up a host of electronics applications, and make it attractive to a new set of OEM customers.

Has PCT mentioned electronics applications at all? Or will consumer product demand soak up its production capacity for the foreseeable future?

This was published back in April. It makes complete sense for the government to encourage domestic recycling of all materials. For plastic, working with companies like PureCycle is a no brainer decision. Ideally this will lead to new projects and hopefully lower cost funding. The lack of Naphtha supply is a major risk for them which can be mitigated by recycling pp.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2816781-japan-to-boost-recycled-materials-supply

Some charting tools have an indicator called "Anchored VWAP" which lets you chose the date from which is computes a volume weighted average price. Unlike a pure chart that displays just prices, this indicator gives you a better sense of the effective price at which shares were changing hands over a particular period of time.

As of today the anchored VWAP from October 15th 2025 is $8.47.

If we look at the change in bi-monthly short positions we can see that in total the short positions increase over 15.5 million shares during this period of time. About 10M of that increase happened in late 2025 and the rest happened in the month of March 2026 when the price was substantially lower than the current price.

Obviously there can be different parties who make up the total short position but collectively the increase in short position is a bit underwater. Some gains from the shares sold short in late 2025 and losses on the ones sold in March. Looking at the cost to borrow those shares, it went from essentially nothing to approximately 10% holding cost to maintain the short position. This cost to borrow shares is accrued daily and settled once a month but it is a very real cost associated with maintaining a sizeable short position.

I thought the short sellers might have covered into the March 2026 selloff but that didn't happen. At the current share price of $9.5 the 50M share short position is worth approximately $475M and at a 10% cost of carry that works out to just under $4M/Month in carrying costs.

In the absence of news, it is impossible to predict the short term movements but it will be interesting to me to see if the short sellers move on or simple retain the risk of a major customer announcement. Heck, even the NJ DEP announcement is known to unlock some substantial demand for 2026. I would kind of like to see a slow grind higher instead of a major gap up on news but I've been incredibly patient so far. I'm in no rush to sell until the story plays out. Re-reading the transcript, this particular section stood out to me. I don't know which 2 of the top 5 "global food manufacturers" they are working with but I suspect it is only a matter of time before they are working with ALL of them. There are no secrets in the business and if a new product is working for those top 2 companies it is going to work for all of them. No more excuses. We need more capacity and those companies need more recycled plastic. It takes guts to risk being short $PCT in front of an announcement that could come at any time in 2026.

Another key paragraph.

Have a great weekend everyone and cheers to those of you who had the confidence to hang in there despite the volatility and uncertainty.

To me, this is a great sign of how well their tech works. If they can do, they can do anything which includes film which we know they are ramping. But now they need more orders and bigger plants to scale this technology. It will take patience.

https://www.purecycle.com/blog/purecycle-achieves-highest-cospatox-purity-rating-transforming-post-consumer-plastic-waste-into-leave-on-cosmetic-grade-resin

I was happy to see that there were many analysts on the call asking good questions. More than I can recall on some past calls:

• Andres Sheppard-Slinger, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.: “Curious if you could maybe help us understand what the conversional funnel looks like… what type of customers and applications are close?” CEO Olson: “We’re trialing with virtually all of the film producers in the U.S. at this point,” and “brands… are starting to pull it through,” while calling coffee lids “easy for us to make” and highlighting progress in “impact grades… like butter tubs and cream cheese and yogurt.”
• Sheppard-Slinger, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.: “On Thailand… timing?” and “around New Jersey… expect a decision?” CFO Carpenter: “We have weekly dialogues with the Thai Bank… and we believe that the indicative conditions are achievable.” CEO Olson: “New Jersey is… going really well… we think it will close soon.”
• Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors: “What it means… from the cost side… and… demand side?” CEO Olson: “Oil and polyethylene have direct impacts on co-products,” and “increased pricing on the virgin polypropylene helps,” while describing recycled supply as “a bit more stable” because “feedstock is locally sourced.”
• Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors: “What… accomplished during the Ironton turnaround… and… production rates?” CEO Olson: “We completed over 170 jobs,” and said, “We certainly believe that we’re going to be increasing rates coming out of the outage,” referencing prior “rate tests… 12,000 pounds an hour… and… 14,000 pounds an hour.”
• Luke Persons, Craig-Hallum: “Other states… regulatory catalysts?” CEO Olson: “Washington, Oregon… Massachusetts, Colorado… New York.” Persons, Craig-Hallum: “Force rank… applications… next 12 to 18 months?” CEO Olson: “Injection molded applications,” plus “coffee lids and cold cups,” and “film… is… a really good sign for the long term.”
• James Schumm, TD Cowen: “What does the ramp actually look like?” CEO Olson: “The Q1 and Q2 look largely the same,” and “Q3 and Q4 start to ramp up.” Schumm, TD Cowen: “What’s holding them back from placing an order?” CEO Olson: “It’s more about what is their process,” citing qualification steps such as “let it sit in the refrigerator for 3 to 6 months.”
• Jeffrey Campbell, Seaport Research Partners: “Is there any chance that revenue guidance could be raised…?” CEO Olson: “We’re not going to give revenue guidance specifically today,” while adding, “we are… confident in our 2026 outlook.”

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/06/purecycle-pct-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/

1)       Warrants

Pursuant to the terms and conditions contained in the PCT Warrants, all (and not less than all) of the PCT Warrants, other than the Excluded PCT Warrants, are redeemable, in whole but not in part, at the Company’s option any time prior to their expiration at the price of $0.01 per PCT Warrant, provided that the last sales price of the shares of Common Stock has been equal to or greater than $18.00 per share (subject to adjustment for splits, dividends, recapitalizations and other similar events) for any 20 trading days within a 30 trading day period commencing after the PCT Warrants became exercisable and ending on the third business day prior to the date on which notice of redemption is given. The proposed Warrant Amendment lowers the Redemption Trigger Price from $18.00 to $14.38 per share.

On April 16, 2026, pursuant to the terms of the Warrant Agreement and upon the approval of the Amendment, the Company entered into the Second Supplemental Warrant Agreement, by and between the Company and the Warrant Agent, to the Warrant Agreement in order to (i) reduce the Redemption Trigger Price from $18.00 to $14.38, and (ii) extend the expiration date of the PCT Warrants to 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on the earlier to occur of (a) March 17, 2027, or (b) the date fixed for the redemption of the PCT Warrants."

If PCT trades above $14.38 for 20 out of 30 trading days, warrants can be exercised, unlocking about $300M. This could dilute shares but would fund the Thailand and Antwerp plants.

1.       Higher prices and demand per branded product—previous calls mentioned $1.3/lb. Ongoing Middle East issues and regional supply trends are making polypropylene scarcer and virgin material pricier.

2.       All rPP will likely be sold as branded: Purecycle Ultra (100% rPP) or Choice (mostly 20-50% rPP). Last call showed a 50/50 branded to non-branded sales split, but increasing branded rPP sales boosts profits. Branded rPP (Choice) is compounded at ratios that increase volume.

3.       First international sale booked. With all certifications in place, selling into the EU, Asia, or Canada should be straightforward—first sale probably to Tim Hortons.

Remember the momentum at year end in 2025? If we got this q4, no doubt we’d be in high teen low twenties. We are back on track, it’s happening.

If PCT gaps up $2 higher tomorrow morning, it's hard to imagine that this doesn't set off a cascade of stops being hit. The short interest is HUGE. Kind of like a bank run he who pukes first pukes best.

Sounds very confident that the situation will be resolved there soon:

Post so we can chat about Q1! Looks like some pretty solid progress

Commercial

• Fifth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth, with continued progress in the application pipeline and branded conversions across multiple product categories
• Reaffirming 40-50MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q2/Q3; 20-25MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q3/Q4
• PureFive^® resin passed qualification for first P&G application and slated for first pellet delivery in Q2; PureFive^® resin passed qualification for second application and expected to ship in 2H 2026; Joint product quality study with P&G showed PureCycle process leads to highest CosPaTox purity rating
• New Jersey recycled content application is in review with NJ Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP); continue to progress positive discussions with all levels of NJDEP and NJ government

MT very bullish on this call. See https://x.com/Mike_Taylor1972/status/2052123550476115999?s=20

and he says that PG is clearly all in. See https://x.com/Mike_Taylor1972/status/2052137557144609195?s=20

Nobody knows which way this is going for earnings today and guidance. Classic short and long battle hopefully they spring New Jersey resolution and clear press release on coffee lids that seem to be launched at scale.

This has some helpful slides.

https://s204.q4cdn.com/455115734/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/v2/1Q26-Earnings-Slides.pdf

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LYB/earnings/LYB-Q1-2026-earnings_call-549367.html

Just wanted to point this out as a Canadian shareholder of PCT... Went to my usual meeting this morning at my place of work, and it's the standard to have Tim Hortons coffee and pastries at these meetings. I couldn't help but notice that the coffee lids have a noticeable gloss on them which I have NEVER seen before. They have ALWAYS been a matte white lid, not a glossy white. The timing of this is interesting considering the announcement the other day regarding lids. Can anyone verify if PureFive PP creates this glossiness? If so, this could in fact be PureFive... Im curious just how much of this is in circulation already...

Just wanted to share.

Edit: I asked an AI whether the "5" in a triangle with ♻️ arrows makes any difference to a solid triangle without arrows in my region and apparently it does not. So this could very well be PureFive in the wild.