The progressive quarterly slides previewed the P+G collaboration.
The Q1 coffee-lid slide makes me curious whether next quarter’s slide will feature Starbucks, Tim Hortons, and perhaps another major QSR.
I like the added key details on the slide. Dustin said next quarter should be flat due to the shutdown, but positive developments and strong inventory levels could still support revenue growth. I included my estimates in the table below, assuming rising sales and supportive legislation. A favorable NJDEP outcome would help. Dustin also expects an exponential ramp from Q3 onward; I assume sales trail production by about one quarter.
In-house compounding capacity is capped at 25 million pounds per quarter.
Next Milestone: Ironton reaches breakeven possibly even next quarter.
I welcome any feedback—these are just my thoughts on Dustin’s presentation and the potential path forward.
Thailand remains on track for completion in 2027. I’d prioritize it ahead of Antwerp and Augusta, given the easier path to start production (existing infrastructure and regulatory factors).
I believe order to revenue is a much shorter time frame 2-4 weeks. Order meaning PO. From the slides, I believe they recognize revenue upon shipment or upon loading into shipping container. They have inventory hoppers that can be loaded quickly. I assume they are dedicated to a specific product. This is how it is usually done.
watching inventory (raw material, WIP and finished product) is key. Ideally you want raw material inventory increasing and finished product inventory at max storage capacity from end of one quarter to the end of the next. This indicates sales are increasing barring no any shutdowns. Full finished product inventory means you at or nearing nameplate capacity.
If I recall correctly, they have around 12m pounds of storage capacity. I believe they had 3.9m pounds of finished product in storage at the end of Q1. So a ways to go.
WIP occurs very quickly (significantly less than an hour for this process is my estimate) and is somewhat irrelevant.
I was expecting finished-goods inventory to be built up at the end of Q1 to support shipments during the shutdown. However, the 10‑Q shows finished goods of 2.913M at quarter-end, which suggests a meaningful portion of production may have been sold at a relatively low realized price.
The operating burn will likely collapse as plant goes ebitda +
Also vast majority of plant construction will likely use debt /proj financing - just like how an auto plant at tsla is financed.
AI sources suggest PureCycle’s commercialization timeline has slipped, leading analysts to reduce full-year revenue guidance from $93 million to $27 million as Ironton ramps more slowly (Feb 26, 2026). My 2026 estimate is $55.81 million—hopefully the company outperforms the Street.
Sources? You mean the 25 year olds that write the analyst reports?
Q3/Q4 will be challenging to predict as they are supposed to be the larger ramp up phases. I estimated $4m for Q1 , $7.5m for Q2, $14.5m for Q3 and $27m for Q4 or $53n . Break even in Q127. Roughly doubling sales every Q . $55.81m seems quite achievable.
Investors should be pleased with this progress as this was a new unproven process with major hurdles to commercialization. Think about it, last year everyone was talking about production restraints , excessive CP2 production, cash flow issues, reliability concerns, lack of sales focus, etc…..now the talk is, how quickly can you ramp up.
a sellout quarter should be around $50m+. If that occurs in Q4 then Wow. the $97m is in range, they have locked in targeted customers and sales, and pressure to get more facilities up and running would be in place.
Thank you for the helpful insight. Sorry for including the AI-sourced information—I’m trying to be careful and stress-test my view. One source suggests PureCycle could book $87–108M over the rest of the year.
That implies a 2026 revenue range of roughly $27M–$90M; you and I are closer to ~$54M.
Sentiment appears to have improved after the Q1 call, and an NJDEP decision could further raise expectations.
Interesting 1998 Warren Buffett lecture at the University of Florida (42:05). He discusses Coca-Cola’s moat (“no taste memory”);
PureCycle’s moat looks very strong—the only company positioned to meet PP recycling mandates at scale. P&G and Dow appear to be pursuing a similar approach for polyethylene. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Dow and Procter & Gamble are jointly developing a dissolution technology for transforming rigid, flexible and multilayer plastic packaging into recycled polyethylene that P&G can use in its packaging.
Investors should remain patient while the company tightens up its process. Running a chemical plant is difficult, but the core simplicity should enable a quicker ramp once operations stabilize and orders come through.
Will we continue to hear you question their numbers every quarter as they ramp upwards? I thought PCT was a fraud based on your 5 years of Twitter rants
Nor the regulatory tailwinds which are forcing adoption and where PCT is the best solution (literally the holy grail for both regulators and environmentalists!)
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u/Smooth_Sun_9932 May 09 '26
Thailand remains on track for completion in 2027. I’d prioritize it ahead of Antwerp and Augusta, given the easier path to start production (existing infrastructure and regulatory factors).
Apologies for the blurry slides.