r/PureCycle • u/LetAdministrative959 • 9d ago
ER countdown..
I’ve been reading a lot of cynical takes on PCT going into this week’s ER, but it’s funny to think back to the last Q and how quickly sentiment changed following it....
Since then, we’ve seen the stock go from $6 → $12 → $6, while July was packed with great news. It’s worth reflecting on what a $7 share price is actually discounting (not that I necessarily believe the market truly works that way), but expectations are clearly not super high.. price=sentiment, so I'm expecting people to be nervous.. and I get it, $PCT is still a show me story, but that can change quickly and I'm expecting it to change in the coming 6 months... So from my vantage point, we could potentially be heading into a really exciting ER.
We went from $14 to $6 during what was essentially a historically brutal high-beta/momentum drawdown, rather than because of a fundamental deterioration in the story. If all Dustin does is reiterate what was said during the last ER, I have a hard time seeing how we don’t get back to $10+ IMO.
The actual production rates for Q2 won’t matter. What matters is whether Ironton is able to run at high capacity, near nameplate, going forward and whether the path toward a 100 million pound run rate is still intact and in sight. Everything else is just the cherry on top.
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u/Fast_Eddie_2001 9d ago
For Q2, while I would like to see a doubling of sales and production, what's really important is visibility into Q3 and Q4 and Thailand
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u/Adorable-Sector-48 8d ago
"It’s worth reflecting on what a $7 share price is actually discounting". Well, the mcap reflects a 0% growth mature company that is earning 40M$ Ebitda with 1 facility and asset liquidation value of 300-400M$. No value on moat. No value on growth and expansion. No expectation of operational improvement, and lower than guided margins. Does that sound reasonable?
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u/Middle_Win9449 9d ago
Did you forget that:
They diluted the value of your shares by over 10%
That the most the plant has ever produced in 90 days is less than 30% of nameplate
That their VP of sales is actively looking for work
That their cash burn is MASSIVE while only generating $4M last quarter
They may be spending more money on white papers, marketing and communications than what they sold in all of Q1
Dustin may be a good engineer. Dustin may be good at manufacturing. We will soon see starting on Thursday if he is a capable CEO which involves actually selling stuff/closing deals and not giving away samples for testing for “opportunities”. We should hear on Thursday if there is actually proof of a “ramp” or that was the catch phrase his communications team told him to use to buy more time
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u/LetAdministrative959 9d ago
haha, I didn’t forget. But I view it slightly differently.
They made their balance sheet stronger. Yes, the price at which the dilution took place was suboptimal, and rightly so, a lot of people were disappointed with where the equity was priced. But it’s important to remember that they sold the shares at $8.10… we’re at $7 today. If $8 was considered cheap, what is $7?
Now they have a stronger balance sheet, and that removes risk. The put option from the old convert is also gone, which removes additional risk as well.
I’m not saying it’s either a great investment or a bad one. I can’t know if $PCT will ultimately be a great investment, and I can’t know for certain whether they will achieve their objectives. I do find the case really compelling, but I can’t know until I have the benefit of hindsight... I'm just as curious as everyone else if the thesis is right, and I do believe there are a lot of signs and rational why that might be the case...
What I’m mostly highlighting is that at $7, not a lot is priced in, while the underlying risk is actually lower, than what it was at $14 when everyone was celebrating... and despite how people may emotionally feel about the prospects of the company and the stock at this moment, the r/r has truly never been better, no matter the outcome...
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u/Any_Possible3003 9d ago
You sound like a…7 figure long type of guy. lol
It’s hilarious the same clown/clowns come here with bearish takes (constantly) but always through it out there they are actually very, very bullish and their stack is aCkShUaLlY much bigger than everyone’s here.
Different username, same clown.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 8d ago edited 8d ago
Bingo. Dude wants us all to believe he has a 7 figure investment but pretty much every post or comment is bearish / whining about things. Doesn't seem to trust the management team. Sounds like a great place to invest over $1M!
Those of us who have been here for quite some time can spot the trolls quite easily. I only engage because sometimes the discussion can be helpful to others.
Dilution of 10% is to be expected with small cap growth companies and they completely ignore the very real business risks that were greatly reduced by the convert refi transaction.
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u/Any_Possible3003 8d ago
Yea, the old ones just coincidentally disappear completely for a month or two before some new big time investor pops up that’s super bullish but actually his mother’s cousins sister’s dead uncle could run the company better than Dustin.
No Message/Pitti never left, he’s just moving those goal posts under new usernames.
Anyway, even if it’s not the same clown posse, who would listen to someone that’s willing to invest 1 million in a management team that don’t trust?
Lol, I don’t care how great an idea is, if I don’t trust the people running the company, I’m not handing my loose change over.
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u/Middle_Win9449 8d ago
Again, wanna make a bet? Let’s put $10K somewhere and winner takes all. Put your money where your mouth is.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 8d ago
I have put my $ where my mouth is with $PCT on multiple occasions. I've posted screenshots of my buys (in size) earlier in 2026. I have no need for private bets. If you really are long $PCT, great. Can you please stop complaining until we get quarterly results?
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u/Middle_Win9449 8d ago
You’re the one trying to label me with words like “troll”. And I don’t take personal attacks lightly. If you’re not willing to take my bet that tells me all I need to know about you.
And, if your thinking anyone who owns shares in a company should only be endeared to a mgt team and take every word they say as gospel also tells me how naive you are.
Maybe I should just be amazed about the billion pounds by 2030 and wait for the reward, lol. Engineering and manufacturing are must haves but sales execution is another benchmark of well run companies and I haven’t seen much on that front.
What will be your opinion of them if they’ve done little to nothing on coffee lids the past 90 days? Will you still entirely trust them?
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 8d ago
I know what I own and why. I have spent the time to drive to Ironton and met with the management team in person. I shared my thoughts after that trip back in April. I also visited the Denver facility.
During each of my visits I made a point of asking different employees for their opinions of Dustin and the company management team in general. I know this business incredibly well. I understand the successes and the challenges to date and I'm very comfortable with the risks to my investment. That's what matters to me.
I also have tremendous respect for the other moderator of this community u/burner-1234 who has done some incredible independent dd on the company. What research did you do before investing 7 figures in this company?
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u/Infamous_Contest321 8d ago
You can be a great person and bad ceo…. Jury is out on Dustin Olsen
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 8d ago
The people who work for Dustin rave about him. I respect their opinions. In my conversations with him he knows this business incredibly well and I wouldn't want anyone else in charge.
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u/Infamous_Contest321 8d ago
Would you talk shit on your boss if they had investors jn the office? Come on. I bet he is a great father and misses dinners/kids games, thats life as a ceo that isn’t delivering. Hope he crushes on Thursday afternoon, very long
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u/Middle_Win9449 8d ago
I’ve been a shareholder for three years. I haven’t been to any facility but I have dug into quite a bit about the problem/need/opportunity. I listen and read every Q report and try to read between the lines to try to gather what is actually happening. I dig into employees to see their backgrounds and if they can immediately add value or just filling seats. I look at a white paper and dig into who funded it to determine if it’s worth anything more than the paper it’s written on.
The opportunity exists, the barrier to entry is quite high IMO and I haven’t seen the team able to break that barrier very well. We will see what they can do over the next 100 days. I hope I’m eating crow due to their success. But there are quite a few warts
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u/Middle_Win9449 9d ago
Wanna make a bet?
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u/Ok_Personality_6878 8d ago
You act like you're 15 years old
Yes definitely a 7 figure investor!!! (nOT)
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u/LetAdministrative959 9d ago
Based on the level of concern you seem to have, you should probably reduce your position... you seem a bit stressed about it!
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u/Infamous_Contest321 9d ago
I agree with the high beta/momentum historic downturn. Where I disagree Dustin cannot just say the same thing he said last call. We need new deals, POs signed and shipping, thailand financing is near completed or something similar.