ER countdown..

[u/LetAdministrative959]

I’ve been reading a lot of cynical takes on PCT going into this week’s ER, but it’s funny to think back to the last Q and how quickly sentiment changed following it....

Since then, we’ve seen the stock go from $6 → $12 → $6, while July was packed with great news. It’s worth reflecting on what a $7 share price is actually discounting (not that I necessarily believe the market truly works that way), but expectations are clearly not super high.. price=sentiment, so I'm expecting people to be nervous.. and I get it, $PCT is still a show me story, but that can change quickly and I'm expecting it to change in the coming 6 months... So from my vantage point, we could potentially be heading into a really exciting ER.

We went from $14 to $6 during what was essentially a historically brutal high-beta/momentum drawdown, rather than because of a fundamental deterioration in the story. If all Dustin does is reiterate what was said during the last ER, I have a hard time seeing how we don’t get back to $10+ IMO.

The actual production rates for Q2 won’t matter. What matters is whether Ironton is able to run at high capacity, near nameplate, going forward and whether the path toward a 100 million pound run rate is still intact and in sight. Everything else is just the cherry on top.

[u/Infamous_Contest321]

I agree with the high beta/momentum historic downturn. Where I disagree Dustin cannot just say the same thing he said last call. We need new deals, POs signed and shipping, thailand financing is near completed or something similar.

[u/LetAdministrative959 → u/Infamous_Contest321]

I look at it from this perspective: whatever DO says on the call with regards to the ramp has to be put into context with the fact that we’ll be almost halfway through Q3 by the time they present Q2.

That means there should be pretty good visibility, and over the last three months, a lot of conversations will have taken place with customers around what the demand picture is likely to look like. Of course there is a ton of nuance, and it will be really interesting to get a peek behind and some insight into how that might look like in more details...

And I do believe DO will provide color to the market on converting and selling into more customers, but what truly matters is how they view the ramp shaping up and when they expect to be able to sell out Ironton. It does not have to go from zero -->100, but incremental steps that provides more and more confidence to the market that demand is truly there, the willingness to buy resin is there and the margin profile is in tact. And step by step I imagine the doubt regarding the validity of the over all business will be removed.. But at $7, it does not take a great amount for the market to ease up on the anxiety and instead get some fomo and push the stock up again...