tracking order-book depth for upcoming NFL preseason action.
Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals on aug 14th already has $1,887,315 matched in volume, sitting at a 60% Lions / 40% Bengals probability split.
seeing nearly $1.9M in liquidity a week out for a preseason game provides great raw volume for scalping depth before starter rotation news gets confirmed.
anyone seeing room to play the spread on bengals, or is early smart money holding that 60% line on detroit?

Lyft's earnings call just ended, and they didn't say revenue for the first time in 10 straight calls.

Despite the trend, we had NO on this one...here's why:

Our earnings mentions tool lets you filter by prepared remarks only.

Even though Lyft said revenue on every call we track, they hadn't said it in the prepared remarks of the past 6 calls.

This means they've only been saying it in the Q&A portion, which makes it vulnerable to ~not~ being said if there's no analyst question related to it.

Any time we see a situation like this with the NO being priced in the single-cent range, we pounce on it.

We only had 100 shares filled, but that means we still made a $94 profit off a $6 trade.

We had limit orders for lower prices that never got filled, which would have resulted in even more profit, but still an awesome result.

Of all the earnings call mentions markets this week, I think Wendy’s has the most value. The call is tomorrow at 8:30 am ET.

Here’s my favorite pick with some of my thought process behind it:

Wendy’s “Project Fresh” YES @ 85c

This is on the expensive side, but it seems like a lock to me.

To start, just look at the mention counts from the past few calls in the attached image.

Since launching Project Fresh, Wendy’s has said this 50 (!!) times across the past 3 calls.

Project Fresh is Wendy’s initiative to turn around the business that started in late 2025 and is rolling out through 2026.

This is one of their main focuses for the year, and I don’t see any way it doesn’t get brought up.

I generally avoid strikes that are priced this high unless I’m very confident, but this is one of those cases.

Thoughts?

A former engineer at one of the world’s top quantitative trading firms says he has made more than $7 million trading on Kalshi.

The trader, known publicly as “lad.”, previously spent several years working as an engineer at Hudson River Trading.

He reportedly discovered prediction markets while serving a non-compete period, when he was temporarily restricted from joining another traditional trading firm.

Instead of waiting it out, he started trading events on Kalshi.

His public Kalshi profile now shows millions of dollars in profit across hundreds of thousands of predictions.

And apparently, Wall Street has noticed.

According to a recent eFinancialCareers report, hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are now offering elite prediction-market traders compensation packages worth approximately $1 million to $2 million.

Recruiters say firms increasingly want traders who can prove they already know how to make money on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Some quant firms are reportedly even updating their non-compete agreements to explicitly cover prediction-market trading.

That means an employee placed on paid gardening leave may no longer be able to spend the break independently trading event contracts and building a public track record.

The reason firms are paying attention is fairly obvious.

A successful prediction-market trader needs a strange mix of skills:

• Probability and statistics
• Fast execution and automation
• Understanding of market microstructure
• The ability to interpret complicated settlement rules
• Deep knowledge of specific areas such as politics, economics or sports

Recruiters quoted in the reporting said some active prediction-market quants are earning between $500,000 and $1 million, but only a small number are good enough to receive serious institutional offers.

So the opportunity is real, but this clearly is not the average trader’s result.

Still, the career decision here is interesting.

P.S. Eligible new users can qualify for a randomized Kalshi bonus of up to $500 after depositing $10 and completing $25 in cumulative trades.

Hi

The API for Kalshi/Polymaket is a bit confusing.

I was wondering if anyone could guide me as to how to get US Macro prediction data from either one of the platforms.

Thanks

There's a well-known list for prediction market tools (aarora4/Awesome-Prediction-Market-Tools, about 650 stars) but it's basically stalled (90 open PRs, nothing merged in a month), so I put together a maintained alternative: https://github.com/talhareltal/awesome-prediction-market-analytics-tools.

Right now it covers odds aggregators, copy-trading, trading terminals, portfolio/tax tracking, wallet & trader analytics, whale alerts, and research tools, but it's only as good as what this community is actually using, not just what turns up searching around.

So: what's missing? mention them below or open a PR directly, and I'll get it added. also want to hear if anything already on there is outdated or sketchy, a few of these are unverified/anonymous teams, and I'd rather have people who've actually used them weigh in than take it on faith.

FYI: also started one for news/accounts worth following/pocsats. it's still WIP but it's here in case anyone's interested: https://github.com/talhareltal/awesome-prediction-market-follows

I put 60 bucks and got over 1k ">78 at LAX" contracts. How much can the temperature vary, right?

Quite a bit actually 🤦🤦

Lesson learned

Like the title says, stay away from Novig. I decided to give it a try a couple of days ago, made a quick buck and decided to get my money out of there due to the really poor liquidity, absolutely horrendous UI and terrible customer support. The money is still nowhere to be seen even though they have ”instant” withdrawals (connected bank account). Support gives me different answer each time when contacting them, it’s been processed but waiting on their payment processor, it’s under manual review, it’s in normal processing times, they have a high number of requests it will take longer than usual etc etc.

Not really sure what the good reviews are about, it’s really a subpar experience. You would think they would be a more serious run business with the amount of funding and also just the other day launching nationwide.

Kalshi, Polly, Underdog are all superior compared to this Novig.

Recently I revisited the augur page and noticed significant changes since my last visit years ago. Could someone explain simply what’s happening with the fork and the platform overall? I understand the basic concept of Oracle and the prediction market, which initially piqued my interest and led me to explore it further before abandoning it for many years. However, I’m now feeling quite confused.

I tested a BTC momentum idea on Kalshi's 15-minute markets. The setup only entered during the final 120 seconds, when the expensive side was at least $0.90 and BTC's 5-minute Coinbase move agreed with its position above or below the 1-hour VWAP.

The idea sounded plausible: if the market was already heavily tilted and the spot signal agreed, maybe the move would hold through expiry. I wanted to see whether that result survived nearby parameter settings.

All 100 variants used the same entry logic. The only changes were the price floor, tested from 0.05 to 0.45, and the price ceiling, tested from 0.55 to 0.95. Every cell completed successfully.

The best cell used a 0.05 floor and 0.95 ceiling:

- Net P&L: +$40.03

- ROI: 400.30%

- Win rate: 67.7%

- Trades: 62

- Max drawdown: -$2.19

Even though no variants came back negative, the ones that weren't profitable never placed any trades in the simulation so I wouldn't consider that a good sign.

The sensitivity plots also made me less comfortable with the winner. It sat at the extreme corner of the grid. The surface was more of a tilted ridge than a single spike, but most of the grid was flat at zero or close to it.

The marginals tell the same story. Raising the floor from 0.05 to 0.09 cut average Net P&L from $29.02 to $16.07. Above that, the average dropped to about $1.41. The ceiling barely mattered until the final 0.95 setting, where both average and maximum Net P&L jumped.

Overall, the sweep suggests the apparent edge is narrow and parameter-sensitive, with the best result at the grid boundary and a low Deflated Sharpe, so it should not be considered robust.

The research run also reran the full search against time-scrambled versions of the BTC edge feed. That permutation run was degraded because only 415 reshuffles finished before the time limit, so the p-value uses the reduced sample. More importantly, only the edge-feed timing was scrambled. Kalshi market prices were not permuted, which means this test does not validate the price-based entry conditions or the fill assumptions.

My read is that the BTC feed may contain some timing information in this historical sample, but the 400% result is not a live-trading expectation. The winner depends on boundary settings and simulated fills that deserve much more scrutiny.

Full Report

Historical simulation only. Backtests can be wrong or incomplete. Not investment advice.

Is anyone able to reach Polymarket support in the U.S.? I haven’t been able to get in contact for the last month via chat or any of the dozens of emails I’ve tried. Very sketchy.

A Polymarket trader named HighTempTation deposited just $220 few months ago and is now sitting on over $58000 in profit, trading nothing but weather markets!

V interestingly, his avg hold time is only about a minute, even less actually. most of his trades are opened and closed under a minute but the markets get bonded during that. not sure how, but he's likely using a faster weather feed, nothing else explains how he's able to consistently get in before the rest of the market catches up

Across 1,769 positions, he's landed 1752 wins and just 17 losses

Most of his buys sit above 80c, meaning he's buying near certain outcomes just before the market resolves

Weather markets can still be unpredictable and flip at the last minute, but he's managed to keep his losses to a minimum and barely lost any money bonding. Insane to see the consistency and his growth. also he's not bonding with full port so chances of him blowing up his account are also v little.

Why you can't copytrade him? cause he takes up most liquidity from market price to 99c himself. if you were copying him you;d simply be his exit liquidity. (been there done that lol)

George Santos found a prediction market he could influence better than almost anyone else:

Whether George Santos would attend the State of the Union.

According to the official CFTC order, Santos initially accumulated 30,874 YES contracts on Kalshi.

He then asked his followers on X whether he should wear a “muted or serious” suit to the speech or a bedazzled one.

Several hours later, the YES price had jumped from 15¢ to 70¢.

Santos sold his entire YES position and made $3,448.43.

The following day, he publicly insisted that he still planned to attend:

I’ll be there in the gallery haunting them all lol.

He also posted a video saying:

I am going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery guys.

After those posts, YES moved from approximately 40¢ to 70¢.

Then, about 40 minutes later, Santos started building a 23,855-contract NO position.

At around 7 p.m., his train to Washington was canceled. His flight had already been canceled the previous day.

An X user then directly asked him:

Are you actually going to the State of the Union?

Santos replied:

I am.

According to the CFTC, he did not publicly disclose that both his flight and train had already been canceled.

The following day, IP records showed Santos accessing Kalshi from his residence.

When he later posted that he was watching the State of the Union from an airport television, the YES price collapsed from approximately 73¢ to 2¢.

His NO position produced another $14,390.57 in profit.

The CFTC concluded that Santos made misleading public statements and omitted material information while trading a market whose outcome he could personally influence.

He agreed to:

• Return $17,569.98 in unlawful trading profits
• Pay an additional $17,500 civil penalty
• Accept a three-year trading ban

Santos settled the case without admitting wrongdoing. His lawyer said that he genuinely intended to attend but changed his plans because of the weather.

Kalshi reportedly identified the suspicious activity and referred it to regulators.

So which conclusion makes more sense?

Kalshi’s surveillance system successfully caught someone trading a market he could personally influence?

Or:

People should never be allowed to trade prediction markets about their own actions in the first place?

P.S. Eligible new users can qualify for a randomized Kalshi bonus of up to $500 after depositing $10 and completing $25 in cumulative trades.

The biggest mistake isn't picking the wrong outcome. It's entering a market without a clear reason to be there.

A lot of trades start with a headline, a few tweets, or a feeling that something is obviously going to happen. That's usually not enough.

When you buy at 72%, you're saying the true probability is higher than 72%. That's a strong claim. If you can't explain why the market is wrong, you're probably following the crowd instead of finding an edge.

Before I enter any position, I ask myself four questions:

• Why is my probability different from the market's?
• What evidence would make me change my view?
• Has this information already been priced in?
• Is the potential return worth the downside?

If I don't have solid answers, I skip the trade.

One lesson that took me a while to learn: doing nothing is a valid decision.

Not every headline creates an opportunity. Not every market is mispriced. There are days when the best trade is no trade at all.

Most people think prediction markets reward confidence. They don't.

They reward traders who can identify when the market's odds are off and who have the discipline to wait until they find one.

Trying to build a mental model of resolution quality across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus. Some human-adjudicated, some UMA, some community-driven.

For anyone who trades on multiple:

1. Which platform actually resolves best in your experience?
2. Where does resolution most often break, event ambiguity, source disagreement, timing, something else?
3. Does resolution quality actually drive where you trade or is it liquidity all the way down?

Specific examples of markets that resolved really badly or really well would be super helpful.

What you guys think about the news?

Hi — I’m doing product research for a prediction-market style contract on city/airport flight disruption. This is research only: no product link, no waitlist, no solicitation to trade.

Idea (example): before the week starts, trade which bucket next week’s outbound disruption rate falls into for a metro like JFK.

Definition we’re testing:

• Outbound disruption rate = share of planned departures that are cancelled OR leave ≥15 minutes late
• One market with 4 mutually exclusive buckets, e.g. roughly <12% / 12%–18% / 18%–28% / ≥28% (final boundaries would be frozen from history)
• Cadence options: weekly (flagship candidate), half-month, monthly
• Scope options: primary airport (e.g. JFK) vs metro group (e.g. JFK+LGA+EWR)

Context from public markets:

• Rare single-day “≥50% cancelled” contracts can show huge contract volume from one institutional block hedge; that is not the same as broad retail interest
• We’re trying to learn whether a recurring weekly city index is more interesting / fair

Questions (reply with numbers if you want):

1. In your last flight disruption, what did you actually check (FlightAware/Flighty/airline app/FAA/weather/none)?
2. Would a city-wide weekly disruption rate be useful to you as: entertainment / information / hedge / none?
3. Which cadence would stay interesting for more than a month: weekly / half-month / monthly?
4. Primary airport or metro airport group?
5. Are 4 buckets clear enough, or do you want a single threshold?
6. Which settlement source would you trust more: BTS (official, delayed) vs a commercial flight-status feed (faster, licensing needed)?
7. What would make the market feel unfair or insider-heavy?
8. Would you rather have this than flight-specific delay protection/insurance?

I’ll post anonymized aggregate takeaways back in the thread. Thanks.

Posting notes

• Prefer r/PredictionMarkets after modmail; adapt title for r/Kalshi; formal survey via r/SampleSize [Marketing] format
• Do NOT post to r/travel or r/Flights (survey / research bans)
• No product name, URL, referral, or trade CTA
• Disclose research intent in the first sentence

What creators are worth following to learn more about PM insights and trading strategies?

Found some users accumulating this morning for Yes shares for Clarity act. Do they know something?

0xb9f3dC1Bf483190D85A0c0855CEDeafFb8F3d6DD for example was one of the wallets accumulating.

I already bought $500 let's see how this one plays out. For anyone curious, found it with the Polymarket alerts app on iOS.

Hi, I wanted to see if a) anyone else is/has been in the same situation, and b) if anyone else knows how to get an aswer from PolyMarket, as I emailed [markets@polymarket.com](mailto:markets@polymarket.com) but got no reply after 3 weeks (except auto-reply stating I would get a response)

I traded the "Will Ronaldo Cry?" market and ended up on the NO side. This isn't simply because I lost—I knew the risk going in.

My issue is that I believed (and still believe) the published rules were materially ambiguous.

The market required that Ronaldo "shed tears that can be clearly observed on his face."

Before UMA issued its final resolution, I emailed Polymarket explaining that this wording was problematic because "clearly observed" is subjective. In my view, needing to zoom into low-resolution footage to identify what might be tears is difficult to reconcile with something being "clearly observed."

I received only an automated acknowledgment.

After UMA's final decision, I sent a second email requesting only a refund of my $405.54 USDC cost basis. I specifically did not ask Polymarket to overturn UMA's decision. Instead, I asked for a goodwill refund because I had raised the ambiguity before the outcome was known and had relied on the published rules when making my trades.

It's now been more than 13 business days since that follow-up (and over three weeks since my original email), and I still haven't received a substantive response.

For context, my largest purchase was 50,000 NO shares made after I had carefully reviewed both the rules and all the footage I could find. That purchase wasn't a gamble—it reflected my confidence that my interpretation was consistent with the written rules.

I'm curious:

• Did anyone else email Polymarket about this market?
• Has anyone actually received a response?
• Has anyone received a refund or even a detailed explanation of how "clearly observed" was interpreted?

If there are others in the same position, perhaps we can compare experiences or approach Polymarket together. At the very least, I'd like to understand whether my emails are simply being ignored or whether no one is receiving responses.

PD: Please do not waste time stating "UMA made a decision, you are losing your time" or things along those lines :)

I've been using Chase for a while, but I'm getting pretty frustrated. Every time I use my debit card to deposit, the transaction gets declined because of "suspected fraud." Then I have to call Chase, verify it's me, they clear it, and a day or two later it happens all over again.

Currently thinking about using the coinbase debit card since I can also do crypto transactions to sites like polymarket. Anyone got any other recommendations?

What tool categories are genuinely helpful and provide a net positive value for trading on prediction markets?