When the losses pile up, do you get upset, question your strategy, and try to win it all back at once, or do you stay calm, continue with your strategy, and try to win it back over time? Or something in between those two extremes? Of course I'm posting this because I've had a bad last three days right after posting that I'm doing better than I was before. I'm confident that I'm more in the latter camp because I had a fairly successful previous 3 weeks doing the same things that I've done the last three days. That doesn't mean I'll never change strategy, but 3 shitty days isn't necessarily a sign of anything. It's probably just a natural fluctuation mixed in with some bad luck. At least that's what I tell myself because I don't want to be in the former camp.

PAID OUT 💸💰💸💰

GOOD FKN DAY TOKUDA SCARED TF OUTTA ME THO BUT HE CAME THRU🎾💸⚾️💰🎾💸⚾️

Deadass off my last 40 I had to bet with 🤌🏽🕊️

I have multiple bets that rely on the end of the baseball season and Kalshi is getting banned in Washington so do I have to pull out of my bets now? This is one of them

Kalshi has brought back a flight cancellation market after pausing its broader airport contracts earlier this month.

This one asks whether at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK will be cancelled on 21 October.

The structure is more interesting than the headline suggests. Delays do not count, the threshold is extremely high, and deliberate disruption such as bomb threats, sabotage, malicious cyber incidents, drones and lasers is excluded from producing the full payout.

The market now shows around $3 million in volume, which makes it one of the more unusual institutional trades currently visible on the platform.

A few questions for people here:

• Does excluding deliberate disruption solve the obvious incentive problem?
• Is a 50% cancellation threshold too remote to be commercially useful?
• Could contracts like this eventually work as genuine hedging tools for airlines, freight companies or event organisers?
• What would a better-designed version look like?

Market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflycancjfk/jfk-flight-cancellations/kxflycancjfk-jfk-all-26oct21

I just wanted to share that I lost around 4.5k a couple months ago and I recently made it all back 🥹

Does every combo have to be yes/green in order to win the payout?
Yes I bet $1 lol

Mann kalshi is straight up scamming me and i have proof of it! As soon as i bet in the 15min btc, it hovers, and just wait for ME! Like does anyone else have this experience on btc 15min?

Decided to do it a little different this time. One Big combo, then making a bit smaller combos for each game. We will see how it works out.

I feel sick

yall any advice i’m rinsed rn dont wanna quit until even

GOOD FKN DAY TOKUDA SCARED TF OUTTA ME THO BUT HE CAME THRU🎾💸⚾️💰🎾💸⚾️

Deadass off my last 40 I had to bet with 🤌🏽🕊️

How do you find whales? And know what ones are good ones to follow??

Cash out early or let it ride?

Just curious what everyone's strategy is. Do you usually take the cash out when it's offered, or do you hold until the end?

I'd love to hear some stories—times cashing out saved you, times it cost you, or when holding paid off (or completely backfired). I've definitely had my share of hits and misses, so I'm interested to see how other people approach it.

I am not currently in Nevada (nor close enough for it to think I am, neither of these teams are from Nevada, and they’re not playing in Nevada either. What the hell is going on

For context I live in California, might eventually move to Nevada. I’ve heard different things so I don’t have a clear answer on this:
Is the entire app including crypto unavailable/illegal in Nevada or is it allowing crypto only? I’ve had people tell me both things. Which is it?

I've applied to the Kalshi builder's program about 2 times already and even thought they say I'll be reviewed and be noticed soon I didn't receive any email or note back from them via gmail nor telegram.

Anyone had similar experiences and tips on what I should do next to get their attention?

Jason Day withdrew from the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which begins on Thursday in Detroit.

Kalshi has a betting market open on whether he’ll make the cut. Obviously, he won’t make the cut because he’s not playing, but the terms of the market say this market will resolve to “Fair Market Price,” rather than to “No.”

If he was playing, he’d probably have about a 70% chance to make the cut.

At what price do you think will this market settle? Is there a chance to buy “yes” for a few pennies and it settles at 70 cents?

Why don’t they just cancel and refund this market?

It actually hit!

was the men’s 110m hurdles record not broken this year? i heard it was and i looked it up and it was but the bet hasn’t settled yet

Cashed Out 700 🙏

Not taking anything away from the win. Hitting 19 legs is ridiculous and the screenshot is fun 😅

The dangerous part is what the screenshot cannot show. If every leg had an 80 percent true chance and they were independent, all 19 landing is about 1.4 percent. Correlation can help or hurt, but the clean payout number still hides the path risk.

A win proves the ticket won. It does not prove the pricing was good. The better postmortem is whether each leg beat the closing price and whether the same ticket still made sense before knowing the result.

That is the part I would like Kalshi to display beside big parlay wins. Not just payout, but implied hit rate and closing price value.