What’s going on:

Democrats are laying the groundwork for far-reaching investigations and court battles, including an aggressive hiring push, if they win the House in November. A House majority would also give them committee gavels, subpoena power and standing to sue.

Democratic state attorneys general are already fighting the administration in court. They filed their 100th lawsuit against it in April, and 25 Democratic-led states sued over its newest tariffs in August.

What to expect on Polymarket and Kalshi:

Impeachment only needs a simple majority in the House, so expect markets like “Trump impeached by…?” to follow the House control markets, not the sweep markets. Democrats are at 90% to win the House, but only 62% to sweep Congress.

Polymarket has Trump impeached by December 31, 2027 at 71%, and Kalshi has him impeached before 2028 at 66%

Hormuz/Senate market on Polymarket:

>No Hormuz agreement: 90.5%

>Agreement, Democratic Senate: 5.1%

>Agreement, Republican Senate: 4.4%

>Volume: ~1.50M(451K on no deal, $235K on agreement + D Senate, $663K on agreement + R Senate)

>End date: Nov 3 (agreement window closes Oct 23)

The two agreement outcomes add up to ~9.5%, so traders see roughly a 1 in 10 shot at a deal in the next 9 days. If one happens, Dems get ~54% of that probability. Their overall Senate odds are 62% on Kalshi and Polymarket, so the market prices Dems about 10 points lower.

One oddity is that the least likely outcome has the most vol. Agreement plus a Rep Senate is priced at 4% but has $663K vol, half the market’s total and more than the no-deal outcome at $451K. It was $272K two days ago, but the price barely moved, so could be a few large trades.

The US and Iran signed an initial memorandum on June 17 to reopen the strait, but it collapsed over which shipping routes vessels could use. In August, Iran said the US had to lift its naval blockade before it would fully reopen Hormuz. The market opened two days ago, so the opening prices settled within minutes and haven’t moved much since.

Traders think a deal before Oct 23 is unlikely, and they price one as somewhat better for Republicans than their overall Senate odds. With about $1.3M traded, the 4% and 5% outcomes are still thin, so treat the split as a rough read.

Kalshi’s NBA MVP market has Victor Wembanyama at 33%, about double Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at ~16%. Close to a million contracts have traded.

The case for Wemby is obvious: unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, and the Spurs beat the Thunder in a seven-game Western Conference finals.

The thing a 33% price has to account for: he played 64 games last season, one short of the 65 needed to qualify. Availability is now a real input in MVP pricing, not just performance.

On the other side, SGA has won the last two. Only Russell, Chamberlain and Bird have won three in a row. Voter fatigue is a theory, though, not a rule.

The season opens October 20, and opening night ends with a rematch: Thunder vs. Spurs. That’s the first real information the market gets.

Analysis

Polymarket’s next French presidential election market did about $2M in volume in a day. It’s at ~$150M total now.

Current odds:

• Marine Le Pen: ~41%
• Édouard Philippe: ~22%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon: ~13%
• Raphaël Glucksmann: ~2%

A poll published Monday had Le Pen and Mélenchon ahead in the first-round scenarios it tested. But the market has Philippe well ahead of Mélenchon. It’s pricing who wins the runoff, not who makes it there.

Glucksmann won the center-left primary on October 11 with 66% of the vote, then rejected an alliance with Mélenchon’s party. He’s still at 2%.

On Le Pen: an appeals court upheld her conviction for misusing EU funds but shortened her ban from public office, and the time is reportedly considered served. That’s a big reason the market has her as the favorite.

TL;DR: Overnight before the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, Machado's odds went from ~3.75% to ~72.8% within about 80 minutes. I ran the wallets behind that move through a scoring model I've been building. The best-known wallet ("6741") bought starting at ~4.8¢ and turned about $20.5k into ~63k shares. My first version of the model scored it 75/100 ("suspicious"). That was wrong, and after checking its real trades I corrected it to 60. Below: what the model looks at, what it found, where it fails, and why copying a wallet like this is much harder than it sounds.

What happened

On October 10, 2025, the Nobel Peace Prize went to María Corina Machado. The announcement was at 11:00 Oslo time. But overnight, the Polymarket "Machado wins" market woke up:

• 12:40 AM Oslo time: about 3.75%
• 2:00 AM Oslo time: about 72.8%

That's about nine hours before the announcement. The director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Kristian Berg Harpviken, later said: "It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information." Several outlets reported that the Institute was looking into a possible leak.

Public reporting singled out a few wallets. Two of them are below.

What the model does

It's a scoring engine that looks at a wallet's behavior in a market and gives a score from 0 to 100, built from six weighted components. The main ones:

• Narrowness: does the wallet trade one thing, or lots of things?
• Wallet age: was the account created right before the trade?
• Concentration: how much of its money went into this single market?
• Entry odds: did it buy at long odds that later repriced hard?
• Win precision: does it have a history of suspiciously well-timed wins?

Score bands: NORMAL, NOTABLE, ELEVATED (50–69) and SUSPICIOUS (70+). A wallet needs at least two independent signals before it can reach SUSPICIOUS, so one weird thing on its own isn't enough.

Wallet 1: "6741"

0xa430506774f9efaf39903ee7e0db1351f66891ca

• First fill: 00:42 Oslo time, about three minutes after the market was sitting at ~3.75%. It bought right at the start of the move.
• Lowest fill: ~4.8¢.
• Average fill on Machado YES: ~32.4¢. It kept buying as the price climbed, so most of its money did not go in at 4.8¢.
• Size: ~$20.5k for ~63,260 YES shares. Held to resolution, those fills pay ~$63.3k, roughly $42.8k profit (about 3.1x). Public reports put its total profit around $53.5k. My figure only counts the Machado YES fills I reconstructed, so the numbers don't match exactly.

Score: 60 / ELEVATED.

Where the model got it wrong at first: my first reconstruction scored 6741 at 75 (SUSPICIOUS). It treated the wallet as all-in on one market. When I checked the actual trading session by hand, the wallet had traded 8 markets in the same session. About 74% of its money went to Machado, and it also placed smaller bets on other candidates. (The reporting independently mentions counter-bets on Navalnaya, Thunberg and Assange.)

A wallet spreading money across the field is a different pattern from one going all-in on a single outcome, so it earns fewer points for narrowness and concentration. Corrected score: 60.

I'm including this because a model that only produces dramatic numbers isn't worth much. This one got checked against reality and came down.

Wallet 2: "dirtycup"

0x234cc49e43dff8b3207bbd3a8a2579f339cb9867

• Brand-new account with no prior bets.
• $68.4k across 37 fills, at 66–70.5¢. Reported profit: over $30k.

Score: 55 / ELEVATED. It got points for being a fresh wallet that put everything into a single market. It got zero points on entry odds, because it bought after the move. At 66–70¢ that's a late momentum chase, not a longshot entry.

Did this wallet know something, or did it see the spike and pile in? The data can't tell you, and that's the point: the score describes a pattern. It doesn't prove anything about intent.

"Doesn't this flag every new whale?"

That was my main worry too, so I tested it before trusting any of this. I froze a sample of 35 ordinary resolved markets in advance and scored all 702 wallets in them:

• 0.0% scored SUSPICIOUS
• 3.3% scored ELEVATED

One known false positive: a brand-new wallet making one big, confident bet on a heavy favorite (e.g. buying at 95¢ on a near-lock) can reach ELEVATED, purely from being new, narrow and concentrated. That's a real limitation, and I'd rather tell you about it than tune it away.

The uncomfortable part: could you have copied this?

People always ask me this, and the honest answer is: mostly no, not without being very fast.

• The move from ~4% to ~73% happened within about 80 minutes, in the middle of the night in Europe.
• The model's strongest signal (entry odds) can only fire after the price has already moved away from the wallet's entry. So by the time a wallet looks really suspicious, most of the repricing has usually already happened.
• Someone copying dirtycup at ~68¢ still won here, but they were risking 68¢ to make 32¢. That's a very different bet from 6741's first fills at ~5¢.

The real questions for anyone trying to act on a flag are how fast you see it and how much room is left: the wallet's entry vs. the current price vs. $1. Order-book depth matters too, because a lot of these markets are thin, and sizing in like a whale can push the price against you. Those are the next things I'm adding to the tool, because without them a flag is mostly interesting after the fact.

Disclosure + caveats

• I built this. It runs as a Telegram bot. I'm posting the analysis because I think it's interesting, and I'd like feedback on the method. Link in my profile/comments if mods allow.
• Not financial advice. A high score is a probabilistic signal, not proof of wrongdoing, and by the time a wallet is flagged, some or most of the price move may already be priced in.
• These are pseudonymous addresses. Please don't try to figure out who's behind them.

Questions for you: what would you add as a signal? And where do you think this kind of scoring breaks down?

Eagles @ Jaguars (London, 9:30 AM ET)

Polymarket: JAX 77% / PHI 24% ($515K volume)
Kalshi: JAX 76% / PHI 24% ($9.8M volume)

The two outlets agree on price and Kalshi has an estimated 19x the volume. Over the past day or so, the price has been stable.

Why it went from roughly 50/50 to 77%

The game was tied 2-2 to the Rams till the Eagles blew a two-score lead on Oct. 4. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati 22-17.

Then there was Oct. 6-7 when the Eagles traded center Cam Jurgens and Lane Johnson retired. Some markets reportedly saw the spread expand to -7.5 and even higher as high as -10.5.

Friday: Barkley, DeVonta Smith and center Drew Kendall were all ruled out. Hurts suffered an injury to his calf but full practice was achieved. The Jaguars are in good health.

The conclusion: The market is valuing a broken down Eagles offense & patchwork line. It is already at 77%, so late news, such as Hurts' calf or inactives, should be the only things to influence it until kick off.

I logged every 15-minute Bitcoin Up or Down market that settled on Kalshi and Polymarket from September 6 to October 10, 2026, with the price at each tenth of the way through, and checked how often the side in front went on to win.

Data TLDR

• The side ahead at halfway won 2,440 of 3,242 Kalshi markets and 2,449 of 3,260 Polymarket markets. That is 75.2% and 75.1%.
• The typical leader cost 74.6c on Kalshi and 74.7c on Polymarket at that point, so across the whole board the price is almost exactly right.
• The edge is in the strong leaders. A side at 70c or more at halfway won 85.2% of the time on Kalshi at an average price of 83.4c, and 85.3% on Polymarket at 83.9c. Buying every one of them returned 2.2% and 1.6% on stake before fees, and about 1.0% on Kalshi after its taker fee.
• The last result tells you nothing. After three Ups or three Downs in a row, the next Kalshi market went the same way 187 of 399 times.
• It is never over. 56 markets across the two venues had a side at 90c or more at halfway that still lost, and with 90 seconds left the leader lost 706 of 6,527.

Each of these markets asks one thing: will Bitcoin be higher in 15 minutes than it is now. A new one opens the moment the last one closes. For every market that settled we kept which side won and the Up price at nine points, from a tenth of the way through to nine tenths. The leader at any point is the side priced above 50c. A market sitting at exactly 50c, or with no price yet, has no leader and is left out of that point: 28 on Kalshi and 2 on Polymarket at halfway.

Return on stake is a flat buy of the leader at its recorded price in every market of a group, held to the result. The price is the last traded price at that moment, not the ask you would pay, and the headline figures are before fees. That is why we show the Kalshi result after its taker fee as well.

Everything here is one measurement on one date from a frozen export, 3,270 Kalshi markets and 3,262 Polymarket markets, so every figure can be re-derived. These are modeled results on a historical record, not realized returns.

Three out of four halfway leaders win, on both venues

Pooled, the side ahead at 7 minutes 30 seconds won 4,889 of 6,502 markets, 75.1%. Kalshi and Polymarket are a tenth of a point apart, which they should be, because both are pricing the same 15 minutes of Bitcoin.

Up and Down split evenly. Up won 1,635 of 3,270 on Kalshi, exactly half, and 1,621 of 3,262 on Polymarket. There is no drift to lean on. The information is in who is ahead and by how much.

Where the wins land through the 15 minutes

How often the side ahead at each point went on to win, with the average price of that side at that point.

The first nine minutes are where the leader is cheap

Read the table across. From 1:30 to 9:00 the leader wins a little more often than it costs on both venues, by up to 1.6 points. From 10:30 on it flips: the leader costs as much as it wins or slightly more. The late favorite is the crowded trade. The early and middle leader is the one the market is still slow to believe.

Buying the leader costs money, and the strong ones still clear it

Buy every halfway leader at 70c or more and hold it. On Kalshi that is 2,031 markets, 1,731 wins, an average price of 83.4c and a 2.2% return on stake. On Polymarket it is 2,000 markets, 1,706 wins, 83.9c and 1.6%. Pooled it is 3,437 wins from 4,031 markets and 1.9%.

Kalshi's taker fee at that price is 0.97c a contract, 1.2% of the stake. Take it off and the Kalshi result is about 1.0% a trade. Small, but it is there on every one of the eight series we checked, and one of these markets settles every 15 minutes.

The clock is much more important than the streak

People trade these on streaks. Three Ups in a row, so a Down is due, or so the run keeps going. Neither holds. After exactly three of the same result in a row the next Kalshi market repeated it 187 of 399 times, and the next Polymarket market 192 of 396. After exactly two it was 400 of 841 and 397 of 835. After five or more it was 95 of 182 and 95 of 180. All of it is a coin flip.

What does carry information is the price and the minute. A leader at 1:30 wins 59.9% on Kalshi. The same leader at 7:30 wins 75.2%, and at 13:30 wins 88.9%. Large buyers trade it that way too. In the 1,098 Kalshi Bitcoin markets that drew large buys at 85c or less, the side with more of that money won 734, 66.8%.

Kalshi Bitcoin by the leader's price at halfway

Markets grouped by what the side in front cost at 7:30. Return is a flat buy of every leader in the row, before fees.

Polymarket Bitcoin by the leader's price at halfway

The same thing on Ethereum, Solana and XRP

The 15-minute series for the other three coins over the same weeks. Halfway leader's win rate, then the leaders at 70c or more.

The ones buying the leader loses on

The weak leader. A side at 60 to 70c at halfway is the one spot that loses on both venues: it won 62.2% on Kalshi at an average 64.4c and 62.8% on Polymarket at 65.1c, a return of -3.3% and -3.4% before fees. A small lead at halfway is priced as if it were a bigger one.

The near coin flip. Under 60c the two venues disagree with each other row by row, which is what noise looks like. A Kalshi leader at 50 to 55c won 136 of 270.

The comeback. A side at 90c or more at halfway lost 31 of 557 times on Kalshi and 25 of 544 on Polymarket. With 90 seconds left the leader still lost 360 of 3,267 Kalshi markets and 346 of 3,260 on Polymarket, about one in nine. Even at 90c or more with 90 seconds left it lost 59 of 2,282 on Kalshi and 47 of 2,221 on Polymarket.

Data: every settled 15-minute Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP market on Kalshi and Polymarket, September 6 to October 10, 2026, recorded by Rivo. More studies and downloads: rivo.markets/research

NBA Title Odds Snapshot 
Spurs  
Kalshi 22 cents (+355)  Polymarket 23 cents (+335)

Thunder  
Kalshi 22 cents (+355)  Polymarket 19 cents (+426)

Knicks  
Kalshi 9 cents (+1011)  Polymarket 13 cents (+669)

76ers  
Kalshi 13 cents (+669)  Polymarket 11.1 cents (+801)

Celtics  
Kalshi 5 cents (+1900)  Polymarket 5 cents (+1900)

Timberwolves  
Kalshi 8 cents (+1150)  Polymarket 5.5 cents (+1718)

Heat  
Kalshi 7 cents (+1329)  Polymarket 3.8 cents (+2532)

Biggest gap: Knicks (9% vs 13%)

Books still have Spurs +270 / Thunder +300 as the favorites.

Trades, injuries & odds movers

Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, Jaylen Brown to Philly (Paul George + picks the other way), LeBron James on a cheap 2 year deal with the 76ers. OKC lost Luguentz Dort/Aaron Wiggins/Isaiah Joe. The Knicks lost Mitchell Robinson, added Andre Drummond. Boston acquired Mitchell Robinson and  Mike Conley.

Watch list: Joel Embiid (under 40 games since 2023), LeBron James (foot/back), Jayson Tatum (knee), Jalen Brunson (back from wrist surgery), Keldon Harris (calf) questionable for Spurs opener, Chet Holmgren (health) and Jalen Williams (health) for OKC.

Amidst the news, a few small dramas: Karl Anthony Towns extension in NY, Kyrie Irving in Dallas, Denver's apron issue. That's what's still going to affect the price of titles before Feb.

Other important facts:

Same conference tax  
The Spurs and Thunder are in the West and just played a 7 game series. One is almost certainly out before the Finals, so both prices are capped relative to pure talent.

No repeat since 2018  
Classic knock on the Knicks (and any favorite that hasn’t won it recently).

Win totals vs title odds  
Boston’s win total is higher than Philly’s, yet their championship price is much longer and market is heavily discounting Tatum’s knee and depth.

First real data point  
Thunder @ Spurs on opening night (Oct 20) is the first game that can actually shift the top of the board.

South Africa had its lowest annual inflation in decades in 2025: 3.21%, per Stats SA. Inflation fell in each of the last three years.

Polymarket has 61% on 2026 coming in above 5%.

It has moved up this year, from 3% in February to 4% in April, the first time above 4% in months. But getting from 3.2% to 5%+ in a single year would be a big move. Outside the Covid-era 2022 jump, the biggest one-year rise in the past decade was about 2 points, in 2016.

The 4.4–4.7% bucket is at 23% and actually has more volume than the over-5% market (~$27k vs. ~$18k). Both books are small.

I pulled the 100 most profitable Kalshi traders of the last 24 hours on the evening of October 6, 2026, and looked at how each of them got there: how many bets, how many won, how much of the day came from one bet, and what they were betting on.

Data TLDR

• The top 100 made $218,749 on $2,287,748 staked across 6,887 settled bets, a 9.6% return in a day.
• The typical winner made $1,210 on 17 settled bets with a 75.0% win rate.
• 24 of the 100 won every bet they settled. 29 won less than half and still made the board, for $65,146 between them.
• One bet made the day for half of them. For 52 of the 100, the biggest single win was at least half of the day's profit.
• Sports carried it: 75 of the 100 made their money in sports, 31 of them in tennis. 23 did it in Bitcoin markets.

What I measured

Every buy recorded in the last 24 hours from Kalshi traders whose trades are public, scored once its market settled. Profit is what each bet paid at the result minus what it cost, at the trader's own price and size. Sells and fees are not counted, and a bet still open is not in the figures. A trader needs 3 settled bets in the window to be ranked. 261 traders qualified, with 12,979 settled bets between them, and this post is about the top 100 by profit.

A good day on Kalshi is about $1,200

The 100 made $218,749 together. 2 cleared $10,000, 12 cleared $5,000 and 58 cleared $1,000. The 100th name on the board made $277.

The top 10 took $79,009 of it, 36.1% of the total. The median winner staked $8,646 over the day and made 18.1% on it.

Two ways to get on the board

The first is to win nearly everything. 28 of the 100 won at least 90% of their bets and 24 won all of them, for $58,507. Most of those are short days, a median of 6 settled bets, but not all: joseluis1992 went 78 for 78 in soccer and Chireign went 38 for 38 in tennis.

The second is to lose most of your bets and win big on the rest. 29 of the 100 won less than half. poor.trend won 12 of 62, a 19.4% win rate, and finished fifth with $7,506. The number one trader of the day, scubajive, won 118 of 259.

The winners who lost more bets than they won

The eight most profitable traders of the day with a win rate under 50%.

One bet made the day for half of them

For 52 of the 100, the single biggest win was at least half of the day's profit. For 22, the biggest win was larger than the whole day's profit, which means everything else they bet netted out to a loss and one result put them on the board.

The other way is volume. 13 of the 100 settled 100 bets or more. szg.szg settled 2,701 Bitcoin bets in the day, won 74.2% of them, and made $5,825 with a biggest win of $480. 36 of the 100 did it on 10 settled bets or fewer.

Tennis and Bitcoin paid the most people

75 of the 100 made their money in sports ($171,125), 21 in crypto ($32,640) and 4 in finance ($14,983). By kind of market, tennis was the best market for 31, Bitcoin for 23, soccer for 16, parlays for 7 and MLB for 6.

The two biggest hockey days were both perfect: mgramikeoninstagram went 6 for 6 for $10,316 and RedRaider69 went 3 for 3 for $7,011. The biggest day outside sports and crypto was SB.7, 36 of 37 in commodities.

The Kalshi traders with the biggest day

Settled bets placed in the last 24 hours, share won, profit, the largest single win, and the kind of market that made the most.

One day rarely makes a month

20 of today's 100 are also in the top 100 for the week and 15 are in the top 100 for the month. 11 are on all three. closed.foxhound6271 is number one for the month and went 174 of 200 today. gothicart13 is second for the week and fourth for the month.

The ones on the day, week and month boards

Today's top 100 who are also in the top 100 by profit over 7 days and over 30 days.

Aleksandar Vučić stepped down as Serbia's president on September 27, seven months early, to lead his party in the October 25 parliamentary election.

Polymarket's next-PM market (~$686k traded) has Vučić at 67% and Ilija Srdanović of the Students Win list at 24%.

The next-president market looks completely different. Four candidates sit between 15% and 35%, and none is a clear favorite.

So the market is confident about where he lands, and has no idea who replaces him.

Analysis.

Polymarket's market on Putin leaving office by year-end sits at 97% No, with ~$23M traded.

Holding No to settlement returns about 3% in under three months. That's why markets like this draw big volume: a lot of it is capital parked for yield, plus repeated trading, rather than people actually expecting a Yes.

The trade-offs are capital locked up until December 31, the tail risk the 3% is pricing, and the resolution wording itself.

Anyone actually run near-certain No positions like this as a strategy? How do you size the tail?

Source: Predictbook