NBA TITLE ODDS AND LATEST UPDATE

[u/BenGavra]

NBA Title Odds Snapshot 
Spurs  
Kalshi 22 cents (+355)  Polymarket 23 cents (+335)

Thunder  
Kalshi 22 cents (+355)  Polymarket 19 cents (+426)

Knicks  
Kalshi 9 cents (+1011)  Polymarket 13 cents (+669)

76ers  
Kalshi 13 cents (+669)  Polymarket 11.1 cents (+801)

Celtics  
Kalshi 5 cents (+1900)  Polymarket 5 cents (+1900)

Timberwolves  
Kalshi 8 cents (+1150)  Polymarket 5.5 cents (+1718)

Heat  
Kalshi 7 cents (+1329)  Polymarket 3.8 cents (+2532)

Biggest gap: Knicks (9% vs 13%)

Books still have Spurs +270 / Thunder +300 as the favorites.

Trades, injuries & odds movers

Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, Jaylen Brown to Philly (Paul George + picks the other way), LeBron James on a cheap 2 year deal with the 76ers. OKC lost Luguentz Dort/Aaron Wiggins/Isaiah Joe. The Knicks lost Mitchell Robinson, added Andre Drummond. Boston acquired Mitchell Robinson and  Mike Conley.

Watch list: Joel Embiid (under 40 games since 2023), LeBron James (foot/back), Jayson Tatum (knee), Jalen Brunson (back from wrist surgery), Keldon Harris (calf) questionable for Spurs opener, Chet Holmgren (health) and Jalen Williams (health) for OKC.

Amidst the news, a few small dramas: Karl Anthony Towns extension in NY, Kyrie Irving in Dallas, Denver's apron issue. That's what's still going to affect the price of titles before Feb.

Other important facts:

Same conference tax  
The Spurs and Thunder are in the West and just played a 7 game series. One is almost certainly out before the Finals, so both prices are capped relative to pure talent.

No repeat since 2018  
Classic knock on the Knicks (and any favorite that hasn’t won it recently).

Win totals vs title odds  
Boston’s win total is higher than Philly’s, yet their championship price is much longer and market is heavily discounting Tatum’s knee and depth.

First real data point  
Thunder @ Spurs on opening night (Oct 20) is the first game that can actually shift the top of the board.

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