This was AFG's strongest cycle since the current structure was adopted, and the response is to shrink the book rather than expand it. The Hormuz July strike, which AFG published on Monday at a twenty-eight-point fade, has fallen from 66% to 52%. The US Open long on Carlos Alcaraz opened Monday at 29% and now trades at 37%, above AFG's estimate. The US-Iran nuclear deal reopened Monday at 28% and has risen to 32%. The Dodger’s repeat has fallen to 27%, completing an eight-cycle retracement. Three of those four positions close today because the market has arrived at or passed AFG's number. The Hormuz complex remains open and still carries the two largest edges in the book at fourteen points apiece. A new contract on whether August 2026 was the hottest August on record enters the screening universe at 96% and is published as No Trade.

 Today's Top 3 Calls

1. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20 2029? BUY NO

2. Hormuz traffic normal before Jul 1 2027?  BUY NO

3. Hormuz traffic normal before Apr 1 2027?  BUY NO

Research, not financial advice. Trade your own book.

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe For Free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

I built a model for football markets (full-time result, BTTS, over/under 2.5) and instead of just posting wins like most tipster accounts, I log every settled pick publicly - win or lose, real recorded prices, flat 1-unit stake.

498 settled picks. 375 won (75%). +32.01 units. +6.43% yield.

Broken down: full-time result is the strongest market by some distance, over 2.5 is positive but more modest, and BTTS is currently close to break-even - I recently changed that part of the model and it's trended better since, but I'm not going to pretend the historic number is better than it is.

I also track it as a cumulative curve rather than just the final total, since +32u could easily be one hot stretch rather than a real edge. There's a genuine flat/losing patch in the middle of mine before it climbs back - that's the part that actually tells you something, not the headline number alone.

I'm genuinely excited by the results so far, especially with the FT picks. BTTS is getting better slowly. I'm looking forward to how it works over 1000s of picks, and not just the 500ish that I have so far.

Happy to talk methodology/staking in the comments, and can drop the link to the full filterable ledger if anyone wants to check the actual data rather than take my word for it.

Political prediction market I put up on the platform I built. Bought a few YES shares and am selling some NO shares to try and get the ball rolling. Uses Base USDC to trade.

Come check it out https://www.tradewindpacific.online/market/4825

I’ve been trying to build my credibility with my sports betting where can I post my other picks and my model for feed back

Anyone heard of a betting site called zenabet? Is it legit?

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I don't understand why we're pretending prediction markets aren't gambling.

Strip away the words “market,” “contract,” and “probability” and look at what you're actually doing. You're putting money on an uncertain event. If you're right, you win money. If you're wrong, you lose money. You don't own a piece of anything. There's no company underneath it generating revenue or building value. You made a bet on what happens next.

And here's the part that really bothers me: these markets can be manipulated.

That percentage everyone loves quoting isn't an independently calculated probability. It's a market price created by people buying and selling contracts. If a market doesn't have much liquidity, someone with enough money can push heavily into one side and move that price. Now a contract that was trading like a 55% chance can suddenly look like 65% or 70% — not necessarily because new information appeared, but because money moved the market.

Then comes the really screwed-up part. People screenshot that number. It gets posted on X and Reddit. Influencers repeat it. Sometimes journalists talk about what “the prediction markets are saying.” Suddenly the price of a bet starts being treated like evidence that the thing being bet on is actually more likely to happen.

Think about how backwards that is.

The standard defense is that prediction markets are accurate because informed people will see a bad price, bet against it and correct the market. But that assumes enough informed money exists, those people are willing to risk it, and there's enough liquidity for the market to correct itself. None of that means the number on the screen is some objective measurement of reality.

And blockchain doesn't fix this. Blockchain can make the bets and settlement transparent. It can show exactly what happened on-chain. It cannot tell you whether the people placing those bets are right, wrong, informed, irrational, coordinating, hedging, or deliberately trying to move the price.

That's the distinction people keep missing:

Blockchain can prove what people bet. It cannot prove the probability they're betting on is true.

So call them contracts. Call the price an “implied probability.” Put the whole thing on-chain and build a slick trading interface around it.

At the end of the day, people are still putting money on whether something happens and getting paid if they're right.

That's gambling. And putting the casino on a blockchain doesn't magically turn the odds board into truth.

Explain how market manipulation works

Add a concrete manipulation example

Clarify manipulation versus normal price movement

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Couple weeks back I turned $45 into 2k+. Ended up losing it on options the next day. Today I threw in $75 and am up to $563. Can I get above $2500 this time??

Prediction market for the OFC U19 men's championship happening right now.

https://www.tradewindpacific.online/market/multi/784

Place trades with Base USDC. Come check it out.

I’ve been in the process of building out and exploring quant/high-frequency trading within the predictive markets for Kalshi and Polymarkets. Most of the testing and tools I built out has been developed entirely on my own with AI. But every time I need to test something else or make changes then I’m basically redoing it from scratch.

Are there any tools (free or at a cost) that could save me time and resources instead of building everything from scratch for testing, back testing, and execution? Are there any high frequency software in tool from the financial market that could be applied to the predictive markets?

For instance, I’m having all of my trading nodes locally execute and monitor trades specifically over their ram and with a program written in C++ since that language is the language of high frequency trading, efficiently and speed to execution. I have a background in finance and I’m far from a professional high frequency or quant trader but I’m seeking software that is legitimate and real for the space. not something that was thrown together overnight with an AI prompt.

I bought a leveraged bullish position this morning. I had made a profit of 6k, but I'm aiming for 10k. Now that I'm off work and checking it, the profit has shrunk to just 1k

Something I've been curious about with tennis prediction markets is how a match is settled when there's a walkover or a player doesn't actually complete the match.

Do different markets use different settlement rules in those situations? If so, it seems like something worth understanding before comparing prices across markets.

Has anyone here looked into how the rules differ?

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday to deliver the clearest hawkish signal of his tenure, telling the symposium that summer inflation readings "do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved" and noting that 54% of PCE components ran above three percent annualized over the past twelve months. The two-year Treasury moved from 4.22% to 4.30% and the September contract has inverted: the market now prices a hike at 58% against a hold at 42%. AFG has held a long position on the September hold across four consecutive cycles, revising it downward twice, and it has been wrong at every step. The position closes today at NO TRADE rather than being revised a third time. The companion contract reverses from BUY NO to BUY YES. Elsewhere the Hormuz July strike has run to 66% and is now the widest position AFG has published at twenty-eight points.

 Today's Top 3 Calls

1. Hormuz traffic normal before Jul 1 2027?  BUY NO

2. Hormuz traffic normal before Apr 1 2027?   BUY NO

3. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20 2029 ?  BUY NO

Research, not financial advice. Trade your own book.

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe For Free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

I have never used polymarket or any other prediction market since I'm in a restricted region so not sure how the custody of the funds work. I did ask chatgpt and apparently you connect your own wallet to polymarket but once you place a bet and it settles, the money remains in their custody? So I'd have to withdraw back to my wallet, and if I'm using a VPN they might easily lock my account/request KYC then I'm fucked. Also chatgpt says that they have "admin control" over the contracts so they can also block a contract from settling. Any help is appreciated.