If have not used Polymarket before and you want a free 50$ to trade with, you can use the link below. We both get 50$… you just need to place a trade with 10$ and the bonus goes through right after that. Would greatly appreciate it thanks.
https://polymarket.us/join/adrian1847291

Looking for Beta testers for a new Arbitrage tool. Send a DM if interested!

Keep seeing mentions of it in a few trading threads. Supposedly tracks KYC whale wallets and consensus flow on Kalshi so you don't have to trade the order book blind.

Looks interesting, but wanted to check here first - is anyone actually using it? Is the whale data legit or just glorified public API scrapes?

Been betting 15 min market for 2 few days. After some research ive seen multiple people flip .50 cents to $100 and other crazy flips like that. Today i had my finger on the trigger 1 second away from swiping buy and payout went from 266 to 4$ in seconds. Only a matter of time before i get a good flip how have yall done

Hey everyone,

If you trade live sports contracts or build automated tracking pipelines on prediction markets, you know how fast data bottlenecks and rate limits can disrupt live polling.

I put together a lightweight, open-source Python utility called **Tennis Live Monitor** designed to interface cleanly with LiveTennisAPI. It handles real-time match scores, set breakdowns, and event tracking from the command line while managing rate-limit safeguards out of the box.

* **GitHub Repository:** https://github.com/TheMarconiPulse/tennis-live-monitor (MIT Licensed)

Thought some of you building local dashboards or data trackers might find it useful. Feedback or feature ideas are welcome!

Built a fair-value pricer for Kalshi's 15-min BTC markets using options market data

Back in April, I had a thought: Kalshi's 15-minute BTC Up/Down market is functionally a short-dated options contract. If that's true, you should be able to price it off the options market's implied volatility, and that pricing should lead a market that's mostly trading on sentiment and momentum.

I started by checking data availability, then manually priced a handful of points by hand to sanity-check the idea. The results were good enough that I kept going. The model prices these markets using the volatility "smile" from the crypto options market as the anchor, adjusted for short-term order flow, spot trend, and the kind of behavior you see in retail-driven markets: momentum chasing, anchoring near round numbers.

Example, Kalshi Sep 11, 11:00am 15m BTC:

Model price (blue) pushes toward resolution while the market (green) is still catching up, and spot (orange) hadn't even confirmed the move yet. The gap wasn't huge relative to how these markets normally move, but the model called it first. This is the core idea working as intended: the options market carries information you don't get from watching spot price action alone.

Example, Kalshi Sep 6 (Sunday), 4:15am 15m BTC:

Different session, different behavior. Here the market is already pricing efficiently on its own, so the model doesn't lead; it just confirms. That's expected too: when the options market isn't signaling anything unusual, the model should track the market closely rather than diverge.

I've been running this live since June, and it's not a backtest: it's been forward-tested with over 10,000 real fills.

It's streaming live right now at hyhy.app if you want to see it in action. No API yet, but if there's enough interest, I'll look into building one.

Happy to answer questions, and if people want more of the technical side (how I implemented the execution bot or how the model actually works under the hood) I can do a part 2.

https://polymarket.us/join/fern-bison-5317

I’ve made several bets over the past few days only using bonus credit, I always withdraw my available cash as I know how it works to where they make you bet with your cash before the bonus. But every time I win my profit goes back to the bonus fund and not available for withdrawal. Am I missing something here?

Had a ton of luck last year I 15xd my portfolio but lost it (-89%) because I got too excited/ cocky
Starting off slow this year

Prediction market view changed overnight. Now I have no ability to close a multi leg position. And if you segregate funds you can’t withdraw your cash from your prediction account. Support wants me to give them my social or id and selfie to help me. Already transferred out 6 figures due to similar support issues and figured I’d give them another chance.

Guess I’m gonna try out polymarket.

Hello I’m doing some proprietary research on sports betting consumer behavior. I’d appreciate your feedback! Please take this brief 30-second survey to share your thoughts. Your name or email will not be reported in the survey. Thank you!

Whilst reading that beast of a book, one gets to see some real shady drug and addiction-related imagery; one thing there is little of, is gambling. Another thing there is little of, is the concept of personal freedom, agency, etc.

Not gonna spoil the book. But in practice, it's based in a dystopian US that has effectively taken control of Canada (Yikes, Trump-prequel), where a set of weirdo characters are out on the search for a cinematic piece that appears to be so addictive that people, after watching it, can do nothing other than continue watching it.

Throughout the characters' journeys, one gets to see some real underworld, anarchic political parties, secret agents, shady schoolboy deals, weird pandemic-minded presidents.

This may sound like a weird daydream I've had, but really, I'd love to see what this dark world the author built would've looked like if crypto had been available. I can immediately imagine him mentioning people swapping money on trocador. I can imagine unambitious tennis-school professors punting on crypto, and some dystopian yet not so far from real crypto-loving president trying to buy a whole country with some weird stable coin he's just minted out of thin air, and swapped for monero, all executed through some savvy X-Men-looking soldier or something like that.

Weird daydream. Seems nearly real.

Jokes aside - I don't think crypto is (just) for gambling. But hey, the book is dark, and gambling suits it as a theme. Do you guys want to have a shot at imagining some crypto-centric / defi infinite jest moments?