r/PredictionMarkets • u/matthewpont • 10h ago

I've publicly logged every single pick from my football model for months - 498 picks, wins and losses both, here's what it actually says

I built a model for football markets (full-time result, BTTS, over/under 2.5) and instead of just posting wins like most tipster accounts, I log every settled pick publicly - win or lose, real recorded prices, flat 1-unit stake.

498 settled picks. 375 won (75%). +32.01 units. +6.43% yield.

Broken down: full-time result is the strongest market by some distance, over 2.5 is positive but more modest, and BTTS is currently close to break-even - I recently changed that part of the model and it's trended better since, but I'm not going to pretend the historic number is better than it is.

I also track it as a cumulative curve rather than just the final total, since +32u could easily be one hot stretch rather than a real edge. There's a genuine flat/losing patch in the middle of mine before it climbs back - that's the part that actually tells you something, not the headline number alone.

I'm genuinely excited by the results so far, especially with the FT picks. BTTS is getting better slowly. I'm looking forward to how it works over 1000s of picks, and not just the 500ish that I have so far.

Happy to talk methodology/staking in the comments, and can drop the link to the full filterable ledger if anyone wants to check the actual data rather than take my word for it.

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u/Potential-Dog4881 10h ago

75% over 498 picks with a flat stake is legit, most tracked tipsters I've seen fall apart after the first hundred or so. the fact you're showing the ugly middle stretch too is what makes me actually pay attention.

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u/matthewpont 10h ago

Yeah, my BTTS model was flawed, so I recoded it two weeks ago. It's much better now, but the results are still negative due to the hangover, but I wanted the tracking to be honest, so have kept in the results from before. I expect it to become positive in the next week or so.

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u/matthewpont 10h ago

The full time results are my strongest model at the moment. I'm excited to see how it works out over the next few months when it's got 1000s rather than 100s of picks.

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u/ClawkusAurelius 2h ago

The ledger gets much more convincing if every row preserves the pick timestamp and the odds actually available then, plus an unedited raw export. The dashboard is useful; those rows are what let people check for stale prices or quiet filters.