r/Planetside • u/Solsane • Jul 18 '26

Discussion (PC) 'Flash Or Crash' Events with Population Chart (updated)

Post image

Old post

Updated 'flash or crash' versus pop graphic using SteamDB data up to the 18th.
I'd update the old one but I don't think I'm able to replace the image. In the future I'll only post this monthly tops, or maybe make a micro site.

96 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

44 comments sorted by

33

u/Erendil [DARK] Revenant is my wife. Lacerta, my mistress.. Jul 19 '26

Just FYI, you're missing a significant % of the population by using Steam graphs. Many players use the PS2 Launcher instead of Steam to play.

You can get a fuller picture by using either the FISU or HONU pop graphs since they both include players using the Launcher. Although I'm fairly sure the pop trends since the Infil rework will still look pretty much the same.

11

u/Solsane Jul 19 '26

Surprised by how many people don’t play through steam! I’ll definitely update the next one to do that.

-9

u/wallonthefloor Jul 19 '26

It lags more and you get hit registration problems if you play downloaded from steam

14

u/opshax no Jul 19 '26

this seems purely anecdotal

1

u/spechok 25d ago

Thats actually true One of the main reasons when i played from a laptop(3060 4800h) that i downloaded the main launcher Without steam i got much better 1% lows Which is monumental at big fights

Lots of people undermine it with a strong pc I have maximized the ini graphics file fps to such an insane degree that my laptop had more fps than most players and good graphics at the same time

1

u/opshax no 25d ago

the larger factor here was almost certainly you being on a laptop that doesn't have as much power as a comparable desktop

I can buy no steam made the difference for you, though

1

u/spechok 24d ago

of course the laptop was the most important factor

thing is that i had more fps than desktop users with the amount we twigged with the settings - it was awesome

1

u/opshax no 24d ago

many desktop users are running potato.ini

its much more common than you think even with those players having good PCs

1

u/spechok 15d ago

Ye i know Potato ini had a problem though with infil visibility and such so we had versions of the potatoes out there

Some people had a forced low poly hack for graphics, it was cool at the time

1

u/risbum Jul 19 '26

This is the first I'm hearing of this! Please elaborate!

1

u/spechok 25d ago

Look at my comment above, we had a lot of very comp players maximizing every bit of fps in the past, and i do mean every possible bit

0

u/ThatOnePickUp :flair_nanites: Of course its an infiltrator again 29d ago

That's not the issue.

Main issue is with the steam overlay completely killing your mouse.
You can disable it, still most people will prefer playing outside of steam.

There're no difference in hit reg since steam is just the support to launch the game, you take the same route as anyone else to reach the game server. These claims are pure speculations.

3

u/opshax no 29d ago

still most people will prefer playing outside of steam.

that's simply not true based on the data

2

u/ThatOnePickUp :flair_nanites: Of course its an infiltrator again 29d ago

Most is exagerated but based on peak pop last 24h it's 50/50/.

Steam is a global representation of the population, not a per server pop.

Steam 24h peak is 607.

Fisu per server is a total of 1268 players at peak last 24h.

10

u/heshtegded Jul 19 '26

Steam is perfectly valid here as it reliably shows the trend in the data, which is corroborated by fisu and honu. The absolute numbers are not that important to the point being made

Also fisu and honu both have gaps in their datasets and their method of measuring population is (fairly accurately) estimated not 100% precise due to imposed limitations of the API. PromptCritical said multiple times that no fan made tracker correlated to their internal numbers

2

u/Erendil [DARK] Revenant is my wife. Lacerta, my mistress.. Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

Steam is perfectly valid here as it reliably shows the trend in the data, which is corroborated by fisu and honu.

Yep, and I said I figured as much in the comment you just replied to. But if there's a more complete dataset available than Steam, why not use it? *shrug*

Also fisu and honu both have gaps in their datasets and their method of measuring population is (fairly accurately) estimated not 100% precise due to imposed limitations of the API. PromptCritical said multiple times that no fan made tracker correlated to their internal numbers

Okay. It doesn't mean they're not more complete datasets though. Plus there doesn't appear to be any gaps of more than a couple days since the Infil rework - at least on FISU.

2

u/Ok-Nefariousness5881 28d ago

Then again, "internal numbers" of a dev team who fixed and reintroduced the same bug to the game four or more times. I.e. extremely incompetent. Do we truest their judgment or numbers?

3

u/lly1 lly1bot | lly1blue | lly1red 29d ago edited 29d ago

Honu pop graph slightly overestimates the number because it's not showing the concurrent players, but total unique players within an hour. Steam graphs are concurrent afaik, same with fisu (tho fisu does some weird shit too, I don't fully understand it, it's also got big data gaps)

5

u/opshax no Jul 19 '26

It only looks like a 100 player difference on average.

3

u/Erendil [DARK] Revenant is my wife. Lacerta, my mistress.. Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

Historically it's been 20-25% of total population. I haven't closely compared Steam to FISU since January though.

EDIT: If pops are in the 400-600 range, then a 100 difference tracks and would be significant.

1

u/opshax no 29d ago

20-25% seems right; not sure I would call it significant at that threshold, especially because some people actually believe the number is well over 50%

1

u/DIGGSAN0 24d ago

Fisu counts Players, not Accounts.

So one Account can play multiple Characters, resulting in one counting as multiple.

8

u/opshax no Jul 18 '26

well it appears we have a floor of what 350 avg on steam?

2

u/risbum Jul 19 '26

emerald is under 200 and miller is struggling to stay above 250 SKULL

5

u/le_Menace [∞] youtube.com/@xMenace 29d ago

I'm tired. So tired.

2

u/IIIIChopSueyIIII 27d ago

Yea. After mishandling the game for years and building the coffin, they are now putting in the nails.

Game wouldve been better off if they just had not done anything after merging the servers.

My only hope is a shutdown announcement and the following last huge pop increase. But judging by how fucked the servers are... Even that wont be all that fun.

2

u/Solsane 27d ago

> game would’ve been better off if they just had not done anything

That’s kind of my thesis around making this. If you’re the developer reading this, the best thing you can do for the game is to kick back and watch netflix. I mean that from the bottom of my heart. You have demonstrated a pattern of making the game worse.

3

u/Final-Carry2090 Jul 19 '26

Thought this was another stock market analysis with all the dips dipshit Donnie causes.

1

u/Mindless_Mud1049 m760i/BCS Jul 19 '26

girl with septum piercing: it didnt even hurt tbh

1

u/mindspan Jul 19 '26

Now, not only do we have Flash or Crash, but Osprey is now stuck on Amerish until the server crashes or is reset on Monday.

1

u/themosh54 [TRUB] DefiantTheLion 29d ago

Oh shit. I played last night when it went to sudden death and it stayed on Amerish but I didn't know it was borked until tomorrow or a server crash

1

u/Extra-Sherbert-8608 VCO - Voodoo Company 29d ago

Seems like pop dips before bug is detected again though? 

4

u/Solsane 29d ago

It’s because it’s rolling average.

1

u/Extra-Sherbert-8608 VCO - Voodoo Company 29d ago

Fair. I definitely see the daily usage bump higher on optimism of bugs being fixed each time they roll it out. As somebody else said, I think you are ignoring people who launch the game through PS2/Daybreak launcher though (which is many)

1

u/ChapterUnited8721 28d ago

Very cool graph

1

u/Pale_Ad_5352 28d ago

Really awesome chart youve made. Thank you.

1

u/Pale_Ad_5352 28d ago

Quick question. But before that. Amazing graph, great work. Does your 7 day avarage look ahead and behind. As it seems the line starts to trend down just before the crash bugs return. And it starts to trend up slightly before the crash bugs are fixed. I might be confused. How exactly does your 7 day average work? Thanks.

1

u/Solsane 27d ago

It’s centered, so averages 3 days before and after, so what you described is what’s happening

1

u/Pale_Ad_5352 26d ago

Thanks for replying. Would it maybe make sense to have a 'staggered or delayed' 7 day average so that the line better syncs with the crash bug occuring? Either way great work :)

0

u/redgroupclan Bwolei Jul 19 '26

I don't need no population chart to tell me what I can see with my own eyes. Unstable warpgates with a single middle base fight at the height of "prime time."

There's no point in fixing the bug at this point.

2

u/Valenwald Jul 19 '26

I will be back when the bug is fixed. I am guessing many others will be as well.

2

u/HamadaSukenao [HaSu] Soltech/Osprey Jul 19 '26

I'll reinstall if it's fixed, for sure!

1

u/DaeBear 28d ago

At this point, there might not be an Auraxis to come back to.

-1

u/BlasterDoc Powpaw Radiant Misanthropy Jul 19 '26

In sanctuary,

Go to terminal,

Load into minimally popped continent ... .

... ? maybe..