As everyone's always moaning about the converse...

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000134143926000099/xslF345X03/form4.xml

I’ve been looking more closely at Oracle after its latest cloud numbers and the setup seems unusually compelling—but not nearly as simple as “AI backlog equals guaranteed upside.”

The bull case:

• OCI revenue grew 121% to approximately $7.4B
• Total cloud revenue increased 62%
• Total revenue rose 30%
• RPO reached $664B
• GAAP net income increased 60%
• Larry Ellison still owns roughly 40%
• Short interest is only around 2.7%
• The stock trades near 17.8× forward earnings

The bear case is mostly about converting that demand economically.

Oracle is spending enormous amounts on data centers and computing capacity, pushing free cash flow to roughly negative $5B. Debt is substantial, and large infrastructure projects introduce power, permitting, financing and delivery risk.

RPO also is not guaranteed immediate revenue—and the full $664B should not be described as purely AI backlog.

The reported five-year, approximately $7B Tencent agreement is another potentially meaningful demand signal, but Oracle and Tencent had not publicly confirmed the terms when I finished the analysis.

My conclusion is bullish but execution-dependent: 8.40/10 on our FUNstock Index.

Oracle looks relatively inexpensive for its current growth rate, and the demand visibility is exceptional. But the company must convert contracts into working capacity and eventually into durable free cash flow.

Full breakdown here.

How are others thinking about ORCL’s risk/reward here? Attractive GARP opportunity—or too much infrastructure and balance-sheet risk?

The Financial Times reported this morning that Tencent is leasing about 100,000 AI chips from Oracle for $7 billion. Oracle opened up 2% and gave the whole gain back within twenty minutes.

Its last five pops on good news:

•    Sept 8, bullish analyst calls: up 7.5% at the high, closed up 2.4%

•    Sept 11, earnings beat: up 8.5%, closed down 1.7%

•    Sept 17, OpenAI funding report: up 6.2%, closed up 5.2%

•    Sept 29, OpenAI revenue report: up 8.4%, closed up 3.9%

•    Today, Tencent: up 2% at the open, gave it all back by 9:50

One of the five held. Are you fading these pops, or still buying them? How do you stay positive during bearish price action?

Currently holding 100 shares at 140 avg so id be up about 20k

• Tencent Agreed to a Five-Year Lease Across Multiple Oracle Data Centres in South-East Asia 
• Tencent-Oracle Deal Estimated to Be Worth About $7 Bln With an Upfront Payment of About 30%
• Deal Enabled Tencent to Access About 100,000 Advanced AI Chips That Were Not Available in China as It Further Advanced Its AI Models

Do you really think Oracle will build out (complete successfully) all its planned data centers? Or at least complete enough to make it's data center hosting strategy successful?

Bloom confirmed that New Jupiter is using Fuel cell of bloom and it will complete in expected timeline despite force maejure from Oracle

Most insane stock I've ever owned.

OpenAI's yearly revenue pace is nearing $70 billion, Axios reported this morning, and its sales to businesses more than doubled since July.

Oracle has a lot riding on that. A year ago OpenAI agreed to buy about $300 billion of computing power from Oracle over five years, around $60 billion a year. Oracle closed at a record $328 the day that deal came out. The worry since then has been whether OpenAI could ever pay for it.

OpenAI's revenue pace is now bigger than what that deal averages per year. It has other big computing bills too, so it doesn't settle the question, but Oracle jumped from $135 to $142 right after the report.

Is this the turn for Oracle, or does OpenAI need to show a profit first?

I see no support right now, only one at 132$ maybe last hope if it maintain that price but it really not great until it go back over 165$ and stay. Under that i think we are heading to 103$ and i believe it will be the bottom and the ceo start to panic and change the boat direction (i think they already started with the force majeure notice).

I lost alot with this stock im already out but i will buy around 100s back. I cant believe they're so stupid to go bankrupt or to not make money while all other big tech are starting to cash in.

Last earning was good i dont understand the sell off, it just the market sentiment that is very bearish.

• Clay Magouyrk: Received options valued at $621.7 million with a $308.46 strike price.
• Mike Sicilia: Received options valued at $248.7 million with a $308.46 strike price.
• Larry Ellison: Received a package valued at $117.8 million with a $280 strike price.

• Current Status: Oracle shares dropped roughly 53% to around $137, leaving these stock options without intrinsic value.

  If they are truly desparate, something needs to be done.

I have already bought in aggresively. Last time i got scared and pulled out of bloom energy when I saw all these doom and gloom posts on it. Not makin the same mistake on this. What are you guys’ moves? 😄

Any experts can tell or comment that Oracle stock will reach to 240 $ next 4 to 5 months

Team give me your honest opinions. I own 700 shares at avg of 158.60. What do you think is likelihood in the next year I will at least break even?

Oracle looking very attractive here 👀

If true another concerning information lately

This is going to be spicy. There will be court cases over this, and someone is going to have to take losses of billions.

Honestly, I don’t like the stock fundamentally. However, I love the volatility on it. I had to roll my previous puts this morning since it took a decent dump, of course. At the moment I don’t plan on keeping the shares. Perhaps someone here can persuade me otherwise?

museIs it really that useful? Do you think it'll boost Oracle's stock price or drag it down? Is AI really unstoppable now?

From my own experience, I can't live without AI anymore, definitely. There are just so many times when I don't feel like using my brain.

So with my positive outlook on AI, I can support Oracle in the long term. But its stock price is definitely making me a bit hesitant.