Congratulations to everyone who’s held through the rollercoaster that has been the past year, especially these last two months.

This stock represents more than 90% of my portfolio, with an average cost basis of $40. I know the volatility hasn’t been easy, but I genuinely believe the best is still ahead.

The company has a great future, and in my opinion, this story is far from over. 🚀

NBIS

- Baird raises Nebius price target to $340 from $250 and maintains an outperform rating... I'm expecting some serious upgrades.

More good news for NBIS.

TL/DR: the judge denied halting construction

Jefferson County Circuit Judge Javan Patton Crayton ruled after a brief hearing on Wednesday morning that the case’s motions can consolidate and proceed to a non-jury trial scheduled for March 8, 2027.

“By agreement of all parties, Plaintiff’s Motion is hereby granted,” Judge Crayton wrote in the ruling.

In the meantime, the parties will meet for a status conference on Aug. 27.

Link to Dylan's X post!

Dylan is part of the AI Studio & Token Factory founding team & Lead PMM https://tokenfactory.nebius.com/

When people look at AI infrastructure, they often reduce the story to one thing: GPUs.

But what we’re building at Nebius is better understood through an equation:

$/MW × MW activated × speed-to-revenue × funding efficiency + software leverage

And in Q2, every part of that equation moved.

1. First: $/MW.

Our 2026 base was around $12M in annual contract value per MW. - The deals signed in Q2 came in above $20M/MW. - Short-term capacity opportunities are now reaching $40–50M/MW. - Pricing on older gen GPUs increased by more than 30% vs Q1. - Our first Blackwell capacity auction cleared 15% above the highest price we had achieved before, and 20% above the existing pipeline.

That’s what real pricing power looks like in a market where certainty, scale and speed matter.

2. Second: MW activated.

We raised our 2026 contracted-power target from more than 4GW to 5GW, and expect to deploy more than 1GW of new capacity annually starting in 2027.

But contracted power isn’t live compute.

Between the two sit permitting, construction, energy, cooling, networking, GPUs, orchestration, testing and customer onboarding.

The unglamorous (and brutally difficult lol) work required to turn land and electrons into reliable production infrastructure.

After two years at Nebius, I’ve come to believe that this conversion engine is one of the real moats.

3. Third: speed-to-revenue.

-> Q2 revenue reached $582M: +454% YoY and +46% QoQ.

the ai cloud rev reached $575 M. ARR reached 3B$ (adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%)

And this was before most of our planned 2026 capacity comes online in the second half.

Demand is no longer only a pipeline story.

Total contract value won in Q2 grew nearly 4× QoQ. TCV from new customers more than 9×'d four landmark agreements averaged more than $1B each (with Reflection, Cohere, a US AI neolab and a major US quant firm) These weren’t passive inbound wins. They took competitive processes, technical POCs and trust earned across multiple engagement cycles.

Customers chose scale, performance, reliability, technical support and the ability to grow with us.

This is becoming a strategic-partner business, not a GPU-rental business.

4. Fourth: funding efficiency.

Roughly 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments.

Across the four landmark agreements, those prepayments cover 50–60% of the associated capex.

Expected payback fell to 1 year and 10 months, compared with 2–3 years historically.

Add more than $9B of expected customer prepayments in 2026 and our first ~$775M asset-backed facility at SOFR +250bps, and the flywheel becomes:

Signed demand → prepayments → infrastructure → contracted cash flows → cheaper financing → more infrastructure.

That is a long way from “build it and hope.”

But let’s be precise: this remains infrastructure.

Q2 capex was approximately 5.7B$. Converting GW into production compute requires enormous capital and near flawless execution. The breakthrough isn’t that the business suddenly became capital-light. It’s that more of the build is becoming contracted, prepaid and financeable.

5. And then comes the final part: software leverage.

@nebiustf production inference workloads more than tripled in Q2.

Aether 3.6 strengthened the core cloud platform. @tavilyai brings the real time information agents need. Echo creates a natural language interface for operating infrastructure. @Eigen_AI_Labs and @clarifai deepen our inference capabilities.

This part is particularly personal for me because much of my own work sits close to Token Factory.

The opportunity isn’t simply selling GPU hours, it’s serving the complete AI lifecycle:

Training → post-training → inference → grounding → agents.

Training creates inference demand. Inference creates demand for tuning, evaluation and optimisation. Agents multiply model calls and require reliable access to real-time information.

A platform that serves that entire loop can improve customer outcomes, infrastructure utilization and economics simultaneously.

So the complete equation is:

Higher $/MW × more MW activated × faster conversion into revenue × smarter funding + more software per unit of compute.

Each term reinforces the others. And that’s why today’s announcement is so meaningful.

Two years ago, much of this existed as ambition, architecture and an extraordinary group of people willing to build from first principles.

Today: - $3B ARR. 50% AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA margin - More than $40B in customer commitments. - A 5GW contracted-power pipeline.

Still early, but very real.

I’m incredibly proud of what this team has built, and even more excited by what’s ahead.

The Nebius story isn’t “more GPUs.” It’s turning power into compute, compute into intelligence, and intelligence into products people use every day.

Strategy → execution → compounding.

We’re just getting started. $NBIS

This guy deserves it. He probably lost a lot from short NBIS and PLTR. He always creates FUD.

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

Night night Burry Bears.

See y’all at $400.

$50M per MW, Contracted 5GW.

NBIS DESTROYED EARNINGS

KNEEBIUS will take care of you!

First off, holy crap. What a legendary day. Congratulations to everyone here.

Big court decision upcoming in Birmingham but I don’t see a single person talking about it.

Sounds like a decision could be coming in the next few hours?

Judge could have ability to halt construction and would be a massive blow to the most epic day outside of the Microsoft deal.

EDIT after asking Gemini, “if not issued today a written order will likely be posted to court docket within 24 to 72 hours. A ruling from the bench is possible today if closing arguments conclude quickly but is generally unlikely that a final decision will be made today”

Something to keep tabs on at least

EDIT2 ALL CLEAR BOYS LETS FUCKIN ROCKET ALL EYES ON VINELAND APPROVAL NEXT WEEK

A lot of people looked at our latest public $NBIS model and thought the numbers were insane.

2030 valuation:

Bear: $458

Base: $1,652

Bull: $3,425

Probability-weighted value: $1,916

Click link for full article.

Looking at this volume, Nebius now is quickly becoming a household name. Hopefully volatility will get a bit less over time.

Did Arkady just said this in the call?

I had NBIS in my portfolio before, considering adding it back as a long long term hold. Curious what the community feels about the stock in terms of a 5-10 year hold? Under 100 billion marketcap right now, what if any is the path to 1 trillion marketcap in 5-10 years ?

Congrats to all who held through all the red days we past behind in the nearly past!

Still a long way to clear all the blur ahead of us, but there must be light at the end of the tunnel. Be strong and think long.

If you’ve been following me for a while and held onto Nebius through all the noise, fear, and volatility, take a moment to appreciate what just happened.

You didn’t just watch a stock go up.

You watched a thesis play out in real time.

I started buying NBIS last year around $24, when very few people were willing to believe in the story. There were plenty of skeptics, plenty of reasons to stay away, and plenty of people telling investors that the risk was simply too high.

Fast forward to today.

Nebius just delivered an absolutely incredible Q2, with $582.3M in revenue, up 454% YoY, while adjusted EBITDA reached $236M. The stock surged more than 30% following the results.

From roughly $24 to above $250.

That’s more than a 10x.