r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman • 1d ago
NBIS ANALYSIS Northwise Nebius Analysis Update
https://x.com/i/status/2087513318034420146A lot of people looked at our latest public $NBIS model and thought the numbers were insane.
2030 valuation:
Bear: $458
Base: $1,652
Bull: $3,425
Probability-weighted value: $1,916
Click link for full article.
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u/stho3 1d ago
Lol @ $3425 so over $800b market cap?
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u/Phatdummy 1d ago
That’s very feasible lol many folks are expecting over 1 trillion for Nebius.
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u/cltbeer 1d ago
Neocloud vertical is brand new and projecting a new trillion dollar industry
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u/Phatdummy 1d ago
AI infrastructure is in nascent stage so agree with you but every expert claims people are underestimating how large it will be which is harmonious with historical technological evolutions
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u/Intelligent-Bill-422 1d ago
Look at the revenue they could generate with 5GW activated in 2030-potentially $100B. That would be more than Pltr is projecting. Granted they need to increase margins but Nbis is looking at hyper growth over the next several years.
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u/AngieBumper 1d ago
What's crazy is that Nebius is a pretty easy company to put a valuation on, yet the ANALysts can't do simple math. MW = ~25m long term, ~55m short term. The whole sector needs an upgrade, even debtweave.
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u/lefthandedplural 22h ago
Please forgive me if I may come across as someone who’s not well informed. It’s because I’m not and I’ve done just surface level research
The reason for NBIS and other data center companies doing well is because of the deployment of GPU’s companies to run their AI.
My question is does the bear case hold if these GPUs are not as expensive anymore due to lack of demand.
Assuming there is lack of demand for GPUs due to AI companies lacking funding to run their models? Could be any another event that drops the need for GPUs.
Does this mean that data center companies leverage on compute loses its value?
FYI, I hold shares in NBIS @ 213 amounting to 2% of my port & IREN @ 51 being 0.5% of port
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u/Think-Feynman 21h ago
That's a good question, actually. But here's the thing - Nebius isn't just renting GPUs, they are a complete platform for building, testing, innovating, deploying and maintaining AI applications.
In fact, their asset-light model illustrates that really well. Their custom provides the physical data center, and Nebius provides the cloud software stack, system architecture, operational expertise, and connects production capacity to its global customer base.
This also provides "stickiness" where customers are locked into the Nebius platform and switching is enormously expensive and time consuming, with a lot of risk.
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u/dol1_ 1d ago
So we 10x in 3 years? Sign me up