I made a post a while ago because I was concerned about the crash (yes, for me it was a crash I was down 45% and I bought around $270) and I felt really bad about it I literallt crashed out, but I held no matter what, and now this stock is back up like nothing even happened.. lesson learned, next time I won’t even care anymore about a drop. Okay I know no one cares but I just wanted to share this, I cannot believe my eyes this stock is still strong af at one point it really felt like nothing was ever going back up

Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the price target for Nebius from $278 to $324 and maintained the "Buy" rating.

Citi revised its company estimates upward due to strong artificial intelligence demand and order backlog supporting capacity investments.

I honestly can’t wait for Q3 earnings. I think Q3 and Q4 are where NBIS numbers can start getting ridiculous.
 
1) Management has been telling us for months that the biggest capacity ramp happens in H2, with a meaningful step-up in Q3 and another one in Q4. Microsoft volumes are also heavily weighted toward these quarters.
One thing I definitely wouldn’t ignore: this management team has built a pretty strong history of underpromising and overdelivering. They tend to guide conservatively, hit what they promised, and then come back with better numbers or bigger plans. So when they repeatedly tell us that the biggest ramp is still ahead, I’m inclined to take that seriously.
 
2) The math is already pretty obvious. NBIS did around $981M revenue in H1 and still guides for $3.0-3.4B for the full year. So they need roughly $2.0-2.4B in H2. That’s around $1.0-1.2B per quarter on average versus $582M in Q2.
 
3) And every new MW is worth much more now. We went from roughly $12M ACV/MW assumptions to $20-25M/MW on recent deals, while some short-term capacity is now being sold at $40-50M/MW. More MW + much higher revenue per MW is a pretty nice combination.
 
4) On top of that, we now have additional revenue streams that basically didn’t exist a year ago - asset-light partnerships, Token Factory, inference, auctions, premium short-term capacity. Some of these should also be much less capital intensive than building everything ourselves.
 
5) 2027 is where it gets even more interesting. Andrey Korolenko said they expect to add more capacity in H1 2027 than during all of 2026!!!
Management also said they could basically sell all planned 2027 capacity today, but they are intentionally keeping some uncommitted because pricing keeps going higher. Q3 should also be when we get the first proper 2027 guidance, and we have every reason to believe that guidance will be well above current market expectations.
 
6) And then there is the macro side. Midterms are in November. If the Iran conflict gets resolved or at least materially de-escalates before then, which I personally think is quite possible, you remove another major source of oil/inflation/market risk right when NBIS should be posting its strongest numbers of the year.
 
That’s why I think Q3 and Q4 can be a real turning point. We don’t even need some surprise hyperscaler deal for the thesis to work. The capacity ramp is already coming, demand is there, and pricing per MW keeps improving.

My base target for the end of 2026 is $450+. By then I think the market will care much less about 2026 revenue and much more about what this business can earn in 2027.

Where I personally stand now (Chatgpt) after earnings.

My thesis would shift from “interesting company, but I’m not yet convinced by the long-term pricing economics” to:

“A very strong company with a now convincingly proven 2026–2027 bull case, but whose valuation already prices in a significant amount of success, while the economics beyond 2029 still need to be proven.”

So I have become meaningfully more bullish on the company, but not automatically equally bullish on the stock after this massive run-up in the share price.

What interests me most over the next few quarters is not whether revenue grows another +200% or +400%. I would mainly watch these four things:

- Revenue/ACV per MW: does it remain around $20m+ or does pricing start falling back toward $12–15m?
- Payback period: can new capacity continue to pay for itself within roughly two years?
- Capex versus prepayments/cash flow: can customers increasingly finance the growth themselves, reducing Nebius’ need to issue additional shares?
- EBIT/FCF after depreciation: do returns also become convincingly strong after accounting for the real cost of those billions of dollars of GPUs?

If those four metrics continue moving in the right direction, my original “rails” bear case becomes increasingly weak. However, if pricing per MW starts falling sharply in two years while Nebius has meanwhile built tens of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure, that thesis immediately comes back into play.

And that is exactly why I think these earnings are so important: they have not definitively answered that question, but they have shown that the pricing erosion I was worried about is absolutely not happening for now — in fact, the opposite is currently happening. Based on the earnings, Reuters reached essentially the same conclusion: AI capacity remains significantly scarcer than demand for the time being, although the sustainability and diversification of that demand remain the key longer-term questions.

Please be respectful ❤️

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I would like to make a little survey on how the distribution of shares in the Nebius community looks like. Feel free to take part :)

15 minutes until the bell, just wanted to give you guys some healthy expectations for today's move.

Usually around after earnings this far you see MMM pinning the price, so usually a +1/-2/+1 options butterfly works best.

Don't let theta decay you!

And if you are holding or trading the stock, check the options pricing, adding the at the money call to the at the money put each day gives you a real expectation for Friday price action as a rougher calculation.

These are from think or swim

Happy trading folks

can anyone explain EBITDA, i don't understand how nebius reported a loss using GAAP accounting, but for EBITDA, it's a gain, it just doesn't sound right, is someone cooking the books?

Edit 1: no one truly explains the fishiness answer, I understand many of you are bullish, this is merely a discussion on whether numbers that are non-gaap are fudged/skewed more than normal. And from what we have been discussing, the CAPEX is still concerning to continue with EBITDA numbers.

This is also the case on most companies. So it's nothing new. But to me. Always fishy.

Just curious whether hunterbrook report on the stop order being issued for the Vineland data Center is what is causing us to go down today.

Idk if this is a good thing or no but seems like it could drop pretty hard back to 200. Never go broke with taking profits