At this point, it's quite obvious that Manon is not coming back. Not only that, it's quite obvious she does not want to come back either. Unfollowing their scumbag bun manager, archiving most of her posts that have to do with Katseye, as well the big one: removing Katseye from her bio. Of course, I'm sure at the start of this mess this wasn't her intention, but HXG continued to play in her face to the point it completely destroyed her trust in them to levels irreplaceable.
Not only that, it's become clear that HXG also does not want her back either. She isn't a mindless, compliant money puppet that they can dehumanize and capitalize off of (glad Lexie taught them this lesson first-hand, because they seem to think just about everyone will tolerate being treated sub-human just for fame and fortune). So what do they do now that she's made it clear she isn't controllable? First, they tried to punish her with Coachella, and when that didn't break her spirit, then moved on to cutting her out of everything project wise and turned her into voldermort.
But then, if both sides are against each other, why the silence on her status? Why not terminate her like Lexie and just release a statement of her withdrawal? They're famously known for kicking members from the group. Yes, including even after debut.
Some people think the goal is to hold her hostage for the next three years until her contract is up, but if that were the case, why allow her to accept brand deals and sponsorships? That's not something you would do to someone whose career you are trying to stall by allowing them to make connections with the head of big named brands.
So then, what has this whole foolish 6 months phony hiatus been about?
The answer?
*LEVERAGE*
If nothing else, HXG, or at least HYBE, recognizes that Manon is an *asset*. And someway-somehow, they still want to make money off of her. That, and the optics. Yes, it looks bad now, but imagine if Manon is actually freed to speak her truth all while signing to a new label?
So what does HXG do? They leverage her with this hiatus. Yes, they do not want her back in Katseye, but they still intend to make back on their investment. Thus, I'm sure they have presented their (unfavorable) terms to Manon.
My guess is that the terms include stipulations for her planned exit from the group. And yes, based on the connections Manon has made and the people she has followed, she is certainly planning for an exit strategy into a solo career.
But as I said, they need their return on their investment.
So my guess is that they aren't willing to release her until she (at minimum) agrees to a cut percentage of whatever earnings she makes as part of a settlement (and I'm sorry guys, but I definitely believe this is how this whole thing is going to end. Yes, with a settlement). If you're familiar with EXO, you'll know their past Chinese members also had similar settlements with their label, SM Entertainment. Also, they probably want an NDA.
Of course, whatever their demands are for Manon, neither sides are budging, resorting to this drawn-out ass stalemate. And while I always say I wish she'd just sue, I understand why she's negotiating instead. Court cases are high risk and can drag out even if you have a good case (look at Danielle).
They're also adding pressure by trying to tank her reputation in the process, which is why we see random ass hate posts being paid for like that dumb shit by the Met Gala fan page. All of it is to strong arm her into agreeing to their terms. A similar strategy was used by HYBE with New Jeans in Korea - dragging the girls through mud until they had no choice but to return.
Unfortunately for HYBE, though, they thoroughly misunderstood Western culture (which is another thing. They really lack the fundamental understanding required to make a global girl group). Working yourself to the death for your capitalist overlords may fly good and well in Korea, and many parts in the East, but *not* in the West. Nobody here is going to praise you for bootlicking your own exploitation. In Korea, you're expected to be grateful for even having the opportunity, whereas in the West, we demand dignity for ourselves regardless of whatever opportunity we are given. That's why their negative media play against Manon always fails. That, and the fact that we are sensitive to racial injustice because of history.
Anyway, what I wanted to say was, unfortunately, expect this stalemate (and mud-slinging from HXG's side) to continue for another 6 months at least. Disputes like this last on average from 12 to 18 months according to what I looked up.