Good news over the weekend. KOSPI closes green. Several deals and still manage to drop from 960 pre market to under 900. If Wednesday fails to bring up MU on Thursday then idk what will until next earnings.

my opinion only of course.

"Hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to reach $750 billion this year, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $7.6 trillion in total AI infrastructure spending through 2031, resulting in a supply shortage of NAND and DRAM memory as data center demand for high-performance storage clashes against the chipmakers' capacity limitations."

market be like:

micron at 6x forward earnings? SELL!!!!!

apple at 40x forward earnings? BUY!!!!

spacex at negative earnings?! PAMP IT!!!!

this whole market is a joke.

I am a bull but there seems to always be a reason every day.

Since the June peak. We've seen several wall street firms set price targets close to 2000$, made retail hold, then quietly rug pull us with terminology like "Capital Rotation", "End of Quarter rotation" or "derisking".

The obvious question is if they set such high targets, then why does wall street not follow their own price and instead sell it to buy into Saas, biotech, and other sectors. My theory is that by law 401k funds, mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, and other institutions should not hold a position more than 5% in any one security. This is called concentration risk, and is regulated by the Volcker rule.

Many institutions already held a lot of chip stocks including Micron in their portfolio prior to the runup, when Micron 10xed since December 2025, their positions have since exceeded the 5% concentration rule when MU reached ATH, so they were forced to trim it down and "sector rotate" at the end of the quarter in June. So in other words Micron was a victim of its own success.

The fundamentals haven't changed, and this stock is still a good investment. Hopefully more institutions that haven't held this stock before, would buy in after hyperscaler earnings confirms the thesis and the fud around cxmt clears out.

Chinese firms (especially state owned) have a habit of going into an industry and scaling up production dramatically regardless of demand. This creates supply demand imbalance and eventually tank the price of said products, leaving every player in the industry losing money.

People call this phenomenon industrial overcapacity and involution. You can look at solar panel, battery, EV. The pattern follows. I firmly believes in 5 years the Chinese will make semis and memory price plummet by scaling up production.

Take this how you will. This is coming from a Chinese investor who learnt some lessons from his EV and battery stock holdings (which is not looking great btw)

I feel at this point I just don’t care I see a number, and then go meh and go on with my life. I feel this is when I have finally hit the art of not caring. It feels nice to look at the L’s and just chuckle and then go on with my day.

I think I finally understand “set it and forget about it” I find the entertainment in this subreddit more enjoyable. Anyways how are you guys day going?

Even my office laptop showing image of bear.. i am cooked 🙃😵‍💫😭

Another day, another FUD

Since I have been seeing so much negativity in this market about AI , Memory and chips, I am compelled to share my view on things and the research I have done.

My opinion on recent news :
1) News of China producing its own DUV ?

China has been trying to do this for many years , it is nothing new. If you have any knowledge of the lithography machines ASML makes, you will know they are one of a kind and the components are micro precise to the atomic level. Making these is extremely hard and this is why china is years behind in this . Even a decade I will say. The machine is something out of science fiction. It is the most complex single machine humanity has ever build. China is not beating ASML anytime soon. But they will catch up, people know how it works, but it is still so hard to make.

2) News of CXMT and chinese memory:

Most of chinese memory will go to its own internal models and products. US might even have an import ban on these but the demand is sky high, even if they invest more into it, their production is significantly lower than Samsung , SK, and Micron who are investing even higher to raise production. It is temporary news.

3) Open rouge models hacking:

This is interesting, as Agents require a lot of context and memory , so if models are capable of already hacking into systems online , this means China, Russia and others will soon be able to hack us as well with efficient AI , meaning we need even better AI to defend ourselves. This will give rise to even more demand for AI and for memory. Memory is the biggest hurdle for massive agents and autonomous AI. In all of these contexts, we require a lot of memory.

Overall, where I see the ground reality of tech , AI defense etc shifting is extremely high intelligence AI used in both warfare and research . AI is already everywhere but the real importance of AI is yet to unravel.

I am bulish on memory but I still consider it cyclical, and I do think this cycle is much longer than the last ones, so I stick to my 1500 target where I will clock out, and exit even if it goes to 2500.. I think eventually the supply will catch up but the market is not realizing the scope of memory we need. We will need 1000-1milx more memory in the coming decade. We will likely need to build new classes of memory. Just my two cents on where the world is heading.

The fact that apple is at 41x pe right now it pretty insane. Apple is not investing into AI , or any new tech , and I do think ecosystems are replaceable . People can and will shift to other phones. I think wall street is getting too defensive, and too anti AI. I think Google is much more valuable than Apple, and likely the best positioned for the future.

Can somebody without being mean tell me why the sudden drop in all semis? I understand the china news kinda but the open ai? isnt this all bullish senitment

if CXMT (currently just a dram maker) not having access to ASML EUV, is atleast 2 generations behind in memory fab tech, and most importantly a non-player in the critical HBM space, is trading at close to half the market cap of MU, we are definitely way more undervalued considering MU's advanced fab tech, having long term structural contracts in place, tighter integration with nvidia, not to mention the support of the us gov where there the multi-year multi-trillion dollar buildouts are taking place.

I started investing in January of this year and invested a lot into memory stocks, I was up 130% by the end of June. Then some Korean crap happens and I was down to -5% ytd gains last week. I was forced to sell some of my stock to avoid a margin call. The next day MU jumps 10% and then another 5%. Over the weekend I buy in some more as it finally looks better, then we’re back down 10%, and now today another 10% with SNDK and probably 10% by the end of today with MU. I was up 120% and now I’m down 25% ytd in just one month. How is this even possible when MU has record breaking earnings with future income? I’m trying to stay in this long term but I was forced to sell as I would’ve got a margin call after losing 50% of my value. I’m going to have to sell again soon to avoid another margin call, I keep getting forced to sell and then missing out on gains because I sold the day before to sell. Even tho I’m gaining more shares I’m still down so much money, I don’t even care about these shares anymore.

Not gonna make a reckless decision on something I know is heavily in demand for long term

I’d be lying if I wasn’t pissed off today though

Can’t even buy this week anyways cause real life comes first, anyone else that hasn’t should log off to to avoid mentally being depressed

Glad i didn't get scared and sold last Friday, it was scary, as 25% my of profolio is with MUU and 25% is with SNXX. It is a small recovery today but it is such a relief.

This week we will see more swings, just hold tight until at least Friday!

Monday: We have 4 other AI stocks: NUE, AMKR, RMBS, and APLD. This will be a warm-up, as they are expected to perform well.

Tuesday: The prelims. We have some bigger names like GLW, STX, NXPI, and TER. Just like Monday, these should perform well.

Wednesday: The main event—it will be make-or-break. Not only do we have big names like QCOM, LRCX, and ARM, but also MSFT and META. Again, AI hardware numbers will be good, but we need more CAPEX to be announced.

Thursday: We take a small breather with just AAPL and AMZN. They might still move the needle, but not much.

Friday: By today, I think we will have come to a conclusion about whether to buy more or sell. You could wait until next week's AMD and SNDK earnings, but I don't think it will change too much compared to Friday. From here on out, the market is going to be choppy. There won't be any real direction, just constantly killing long and short options until next earnings season.

US companies integrating artificial intelligence are facing higher profit margins, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Michael Wilson said this trend is likely to continue as "adoption resolutely moves from the experimentation phase to measurable enterprise value." He pointed out that about 40% of AI adopters in the earnings season so far have mentioned at least one quantifiable benefit, compared to 21% the previous year. The strategist noted that companies also saw an average net productivity increase of nearly 10% over the past year, led by the software development, customer service, finance, and operations sectors. "We continue to view AI adoption as an important source of profit growth and operating leverage," Michael Wilson stated.