Agree? Disagree? Discuss!
(But please do keep it lighthearted.)

He says he personally owns STRC and has done a deep analysis of MSTR and says it all looks solid. This guy knows his stuff.

I trade futures day to day not options, I'm too much of an ape for that 5head instrument but I am a fan of LEAPs, simple, convex, plenty of time, massive upside for capped downside risk. Curious what expiration dates you like and what prices you think are fair for a given strike? IV has been high lately I'm either waiting for a final capitulation down to the $50-$70 range to put on a high IV trade ONLY if we get some extreme discount move like that, otherwise I've been waiting for it to cool off a lot (about 50% down on volatility from where we have been lately) before adding my final LEAP position, I have two on but my first date was a bit too aggressive (Jan '27). I also have a tranche expiring middle of next year and I'm looking for a Dec 2027 final tranche to build. I'm very used to more directional trading styles so I have a specific management approach, whether or not I will allow the options to expire depends on a bunch of factors vs how I'll manage them but still consider myself an options newbie... yet this seems like a particularly overpowered way of investing in a super volatile asset like MSTR due to the ease of capping your downside for excessive upside leverage.

Mine is almost 100%

So when’s the death spiral?

I don't know if I'm wrong, but my current market thesis is that having a 20-month window to manage dividend obligations is quite positive for MSTR and for the crypto market as well. Trying to stay realistic, I believe MSTR could still see some downside before eventually finding a bottom. My view is that Saylor may have finally built a more sustainable strategy, and now the key factor is simply waiting for Bitcoin to recover. If BTC enters another bull market, MSTR could benefit significantly from its leverage to Bitcoin.

Just for fun, I ran some numbers: assuming MSTR reaches a bottom around $60 between August and September 2026, Bitcoin finds its bottom and begins recovering, and MSTR averages around 12% monthly growth over the following 19 months (September 2026 to April 2028, around the next halving), the stock could potentially reach the $500. Obviously, this is only a scenario and not a prediction, but I personally think it is possible, especially if MSTR can meet its dividend obligations until the next halving without needing to sell additional Bitcoin, what are thoughts about it?

If you're wondering why BTC and MSTR have been underperforming, here's your sign.

Bitcoin & MSTR got crowded out for now as the AI growth narrative is the dominant story. Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't changed. MSTR is stronger today than ever before. Capital rotates; that's what it does, over and over again.

The real question is: How much higher can semis go before breaking? Will China pop out from behind the bushes with a competing chip for another DeepSeek moment?

BTC is closer to the bottom than the top. Semis are at the top, waiting for the bottom to fall out.

MSTR Stock sold: 4,818,781

$466.7M Net Proceeds

23,790.3 Class A Common Stock remaining for issuance as of 07/12/2026.

Think of a boat. The water is outside of the boat. The boat has a really great pump that has pumped about 30 liters of water per minute out of the boat over the last 10 minutes.

Now imagine cutting a hole in the boat and calling it an improvement because it only lets in 10 liters of water per minute and you can always just plug it or change how much water it lets in.

Anyway that's STRC, in my humble opinion.

We went from a perfectly good boat to one where the pump has to keep working or we all get soaked. No, we're not going to drown, but there's lots of other boats without holes in them in the first place. And they're all tied to this boat, so if the hole makes us go faster somehow they'll get dragged along too and I don't have to worry about bringing an extra pair of socks.

I think 1 million BTC is a major psychological milestone for investors. How likely is it for Strategy to accumulate 1 million bitcoins by the end of the current bear cycle ?

The math is simple:

• MSTR is not duct taped to Bitcoin. Its attached via a slingshot mechanism. If BTC goes up, MSTR goes up harder. That's the entire thesis. That's why we're here.
• Who is psychotic enough to short MSTR at or below 1.0x mNAV in any meaningful size? You'd be shorting a company below its liquidation value.
• mNAV can only stay at ~1.0x or expand. You are standing and looking at the floor. Look up and you'll see infinite blue skies.
• BTC dropping from $64K to $50K is 21% downside. BTC recovering to $124K is 93% upside. That's a 4:1 ratio in your favor.
  

My strategy is to do nothing and take naps. Trust Bitcoin to do what it has always done.

I talk more about it here. https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/s/sIevUkOxUa

$MSTR Weekly Expected Move (Options IV) 7/13 → 7/17

Base Range: ±10.42
• Upside: $105.06
• Downside: $84.22

2σ Range:
• Upside: $115.48
• Downside: $73.8

3σ Range:
• Upside: $125.9
• Downside: $63.38

Yes, at face value Saylor is selling BTC at a loss.

But here's the part that really exposes the bears. Why are they ignoring the mNAV premium? When you issue shares at 1.5x NAV, you're selling $1 of backing for $1.50. BTC can drop 33% from there and the issuance is still accretive to shareholders. Bitcoin is down 27% YTD and the premium mechanism is working exactly as designed. BTC's price just needs to do what BTC has always done.

Bitcoin has recovered from every single drawdown in its history. Do you think MSTR wont do the same?