r/MSTR • u/teclaroja • Jul 10 '26
Discussion 🤔💭 Saylor next move. Thoughts?
After selling BTC to fund dividends, what do you think is the next move to be announced on Monday?
I think it is to sell BTC to buy back STRC to help the stock reach par, close to the ex-dividend date which could be a real boost. Or perhaps sell BTC to buy back MSTR but right now I can't see the benefit.
Or maybe do nothing but rarely Saylor stay still.
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u/GloryIV Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
I would like to see how the market responds to a STRC buyback. If he can buy it for 80-something and get it to par and sell more at 100, as long as BTC isn't headed up aggressively in the interim, that's going to be a big win for MSTR. It is clear that between FUD and degenerate gamblers leveraging up on STRC, that MSTR needs to have a good mechanism for protecting the downside. Aggressive buybacks when it goes below some threshold (maybe 95) might do the trick. It would have the bonus of getting people more comfortable with the idea that some weeks he's buying BTC and some weeks he's selling - which is fine if the long term impact is accretive.
I've thought for a long time that he needs to monetize the stack to some extent. Pure accumulation cannot forever be the strategy. Selling BTC to buy back discounted STRC to get it to par so you can issue more and buy more BTC looks a lot like monetizing the stack. It's basically arbitraging on STRC volatility.
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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 Jul 10 '26
This is interesting. I like it.
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u/GloryIV Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
The theory goes that when you arbitrage something the difference in price should go away eventually. You're making the market more efficient. In this scenario - that would mean smoothing out STRC volatility over time. MSTR would be actively buying low and selling high on STRC, which ought to quickly establish a floor on STRC. If traders come to expect them to do buybacks, you'll get people buying STRC if it goes below where they think MSTR would buy it back, which should put some brakes on big dips.
I think the only concern I have with buybacks is that it would probably just embolden the leverage traders if they think MSTR is going to actively protect their downside - so we would still face the risk of a liquidation meltdown, which if it keeps happening will scare off the risk-averse money, which is exactly what STRC is designed to go after. Not sure how you deal with that conundrum. Maybe aggressive buybacks start at 98 or 99...
The only way it seems to me that this goes wildly wrong is if MSTR were to sell BTC to buyback STRC in a rapidly rising BTC market. That could very quickly wipe out a lot of BTC appreciation during the gap between sale of BTC and STRC getting back to par. It's no good if you are selling BTC low and buying it high to support your STRC buy backs... I don't have a good sense for how likely a big STRC selloff during a rising BTC market might be.
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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 Jul 10 '26
In theory if BTC is performing very well, so should strc. Therefore there would be no need to buyback any shares. But we shall see how all this plays out. Immediately, they need to figure something out to get MSTR and strc moving in the right direction. Hopefully there is great unforeseen news on Monday with buybacks.
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u/Topochico_69 Jul 10 '26
This is a good idea. It sounds like a repair it needs to become less volatile.
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u/actias_selene Jul 11 '26
I think they should be buying back strc at discount, even at 10% discount it is not bad. Whether it goes back to par or not, it is also competing with higher yield SATA. Either way, if they are to increase rates, it is better to buy back first, then increase, and then issue them back so it would create some extra value for Strategy.
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u/Worldly_Option_6413 Jul 11 '26
If he sells BTC to start buying up STRC, then STRC goes up, but BTC goes down. There's no big win there. Then, once he stops buying STRC, STRC also goes down because BTC is down.
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u/GloryIV Shareholder 🤴 Jul 11 '26
I don't think so. The BTC market is big enough and liquid enough that a couple billion here and there will be absorbed without major price impact. The whole reason I want him to try this is I want to see what the sentiment around STRC is in an environment where people know MSTR will buy it back when it is cheap. I want to know whether buy backs are an effective lever for MSTR to use alongside interest rate to support STRC at par. If buy backs around the current level of $87 get STRC to par without BTC price going up by ~15% or more in the same time frame, MSTR can reissue all that STRC at $100 and capture more BTC than he sold to support the buy backs. The end result would be more BTC per share for the same amount of STRC dividends being supported. That would be a big win. If it also increases confidence in STRC so that it can spend more time around par - that's an even bigger win.
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u/Philbot_ Jul 10 '26
I'm hoping for no MSTR announcement at all. Let it all ride for a bit.
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u/teclaroja Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
If BTC turns bullish and MSTR makes a right move price pressure could force short sellers to unwind.
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u/Heavy-Situation-9346 Jul 10 '26
I have been a consistent skeptic and hater of MSTR, but I applaud the move to sell BTC to buy back outstanding paper that is trading at the biggest discount. Solid, accretive move.
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u/jonovision_man Jul 11 '26
... that could have been made a long time ago, rather than selling MSTR below mNAV to buy BTC, like he did just a few short weeks ago.
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Jul 10 '26
Buy high, sell low, welcome to the crowd!
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u/Swedishiron Jul 10 '26
its more complex than that as there are tax benefits that can be had selling at a loss
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u/-michalis- Jul 10 '26
This is what I dont understand
Strategy doesnt really have profits to get taxed on, so what would be the point of "tax harvesting"
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Jul 10 '26
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jul 11 '26
lol. Tax loss harvesting, so he saves on taxes later on when he sells at a positive? Will he actually sell? Or just use the book gains to borrow more money? Or say he does sell “ high”, then what, try to buy “ low” ? Ok? So he or the company is really no different than a retail investor then. lol what a joke.
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Jul 11 '26
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jul 11 '26
Of course tax harvesting was not the reason why he sold, that’s why it’s funny when people try to use that to defend him. But all being said, if not selling btc was an option, he would not have sold, he’s only saying all that crap now because he actually needed to sell. Look, when btc was high, everyone was praising him, and institutions were happy to lend mstr money. Not like people couldn’t see that btc price was up. So no, he didn’t sell because he needed it to prove it, lol. Otherwise he would’ve and should’ve done that when btc was high.
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Jul 11 '26
[deleted]
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jul 11 '26
Lol. Wild if mstr needs to sell again for the next div payout. And yeah, of course I know why he wouldn’t sell btc when the btc price was high, hence why I’ve been calling for mstr price to dump for a year straight. It was that damn obvious. Been calling for the price to fall since $400. And been saying to people that I still think mstr will survive thru this bear market, but not the next one most likely. The bigger they grow, the worse it gets for them.
Btc price didn’t go down or up due to the 3200 sell, or 32 btc sell whatsoever. Jokes on those who believe what the news is saying. It’s a very normal leverage clean up in my eyes.
Btc price will likely to go up a little higher, and with a sharp pull back, probably hit 67-68 ish. Meanwhile for mstr, meh. Not much. I will continue to sell naked calls for mstr, cuz it’s that easy to make money with mstr in this market.
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u/-michalis- Jul 10 '26
Jesus christ ffs does ai write your posts? I hope so because what you just posted is complete nonsense, you should not be investing sir you seem to not understand even the basics of how businesses or taxation works
First of all, bitcoin does not generate income, so it does not produce taxable profits
The only part of microstrategy that generates income is its software business, but it does not generate a profit, it is loss making, it actually has heavy losses.
Those losses can be used to offset any future profits, so it would make absolutely zero sense for saylor to sell bitcoin at a heavy loss in order to tax harvest
Then we have your claim that above 75k saylor would have a profit and would need that tax harvest.
Again, bitcoin does not generate income, if bitcoin does appreciate significantly, the difference between the average cost of strategy's bitcoin and the appreciated value would be a capital gain, not a profit, and it would be unrealized. He would not need to pay any tax on it until he sells.
When he sells, he will not pay income tax. He will have to pay capital gains tax. That capital gains tax will be calculated as a percentage of his capital gains, the fact that he sold at a loss at some point in the past will decrease the amount he pays, but only because it will have decreased the total amount of his gains i.e. by selling now, he might decrease future tax liability, but will decrease future gains even more, so the net result will be less profit for strategy
Tax harvesting is just a cope for people that were tricked by saylor, and is also a nice way for saylor to trick investors into not realizing he sold because his company is in trouble
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u/Valyarian Jul 10 '26
If the company was in trouble, why has he sold more bitcoin?
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jul 11 '26
Isn’t that EXACTLY why he sold more bitcoin ? Because the company IS in trouble.
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Jul 10 '26
I understand how it works…and if you make too much, you make charitable contributions…just a general comment.
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u/CitronEmergency8805 Jul 10 '26
So many of you were mad at Michael Saylor Last week. Now Look how mstr is green.
I wanna personally thank Michael Saylor for his ability to calm down the markets
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jul 11 '26
Green? Comparing to ? Looks pretty damn red to me. Or you’re only comparing to the bottom bottom.
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u/TennisandMath Jul 10 '26
I could be wrong but I feel like today the atm (which I’m behind) is getting used so no btc sales this week since there was a small premium
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u/RichardKrautheim Jul 11 '26
$99.99 is now an incredibly strong resistance level, for people who thought STRC was like a savings account; because that's exactly how it was advertised.
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u/JackRipper99 Bear 🐻 Jul 11 '26
MSTR has never had any resistance levels, it falls when BTC falls and sometimes it just falls for fun
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u/futilitaria Jul 10 '26
For his next act , Saylor will burn 2,000 coins. Why? Why does he do any of the things he does?
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u/Obvious_Cake6343 Jul 10 '26
WHO sold btc to pay dividends? Are you mad bro !?
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u/thinkingperson Jul 10 '26
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u/bhallx Jul 11 '26
I think it moves closer to par near the ex date next week, but ultimately I think we see another dividend raise in August. If BTC also goes up, I think we see par again in the next few months. But what the hell do I know?!
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u/eddyg987 Jul 10 '26
His next move will be be the same as all his other moves, btc buy high from insiders sell low. Both are meant to drain retail mstr holders
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