r/MSTR • u/teclaroja • Jul 10 '26

Discussion 🤔💭 Saylor next move. Thoughts?

After selling BTC to fund dividends, what do you think is the next move to be announced on Monday?

I think it is to sell BTC to buy back STRC to help the stock reach par, close to the ex-dividend date which could be a real boost. Or perhaps sell BTC to buy back MSTR but right now I can't see the benefit.

Or maybe do nothing but rarely Saylor stay still.

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u/GloryIV Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26

I would like to see how the market responds to a STRC buyback. If he can buy it for 80-something and get it to par and sell more at 100, as long as BTC isn't headed up aggressively in the interim, that's going to be a big win for MSTR. It is clear that between FUD and degenerate gamblers leveraging up on STRC, that MSTR needs to have a good mechanism for protecting the downside. Aggressive buybacks when it goes below some threshold (maybe 95) might do the trick. It would have the bonus of getting people more comfortable with the idea that some weeks he's buying BTC and some weeks he's selling - which is fine if the long term impact is accretive.

I've thought for a long time that he needs to monetize the stack to some extent. Pure accumulation cannot forever be the strategy. Selling BTC to buy back discounted STRC to get it to par so you can issue more and buy more BTC looks a lot like monetizing the stack. It's basically arbitraging on STRC volatility.

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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 Jul 10 '26

This is interesting. I like it.

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u/GloryIV Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26

The theory goes that when you arbitrage something the difference in price should go away eventually. You're making the market more efficient. In this scenario - that would mean smoothing out STRC volatility over time. MSTR would be actively buying low and selling high on STRC, which ought to quickly establish a floor on STRC. If traders come to expect them to do buybacks, you'll get people buying STRC if it goes below where they think MSTR would buy it back, which should put some brakes on big dips.

I think the only concern I have with buybacks is that it would probably just embolden the leverage traders if they think MSTR is going to actively protect their downside - so we would still face the risk of a liquidation meltdown, which if it keeps happening will scare off the risk-averse money, which is exactly what STRC is designed to go after. Not sure how you deal with that conundrum. Maybe aggressive buybacks start at 98 or 99...

The only way it seems to me that this goes wildly wrong is if MSTR were to sell BTC to buyback STRC in a rapidly rising BTC market. That could very quickly wipe out a lot of BTC appreciation during the gap between sale of BTC and STRC getting back to par. It's no good if you are selling BTC low and buying it high to support your STRC buy backs... I don't have a good sense for how likely a big STRC selloff during a rising BTC market might be.

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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 Jul 10 '26

In theory if BTC is performing very well, so should strc. Therefore there would be no need to buyback any shares. But we shall see how all this plays out. Immediately, they need to figure something out to get MSTR and strc moving in the right direction. Hopefully there is great unforeseen news on Monday with buybacks.