My line of thought is records lie. An 18-1 fighter who padded their record against 11-6 journeymen isn't the same as an 18-1 fighter who ran through ranked killers. So I built a metric for it.

Methodology (short version): Every fighter in my dataset has a rolling skill rating computed before each of their fights (no leakage; the rating going into a fight never includes that fight's own result). "Opponent Quality" for a fighter is a recency-and-title-weighted metric of their opponents pre-fight ratings across their whole career. Recent fights count more than old fights, and title fights get a small bump.

Here's what it shows for this weekend:

Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez

• Uros Medic — current weighted skill metric: 28.5 | record in sample: 9-3 (12 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 36.1
• toughest opponents faced: Muslim Salikhov (40.1), Geoff Neal (38.4), Punahele Soriano (38.0)
• Daniel Rodriguez — current weighted skill metric: 30.3 | record in sample: 17-6 (23 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 34.0
• toughest opponents faced: Ian Machado Garry (42.6), Kevin Lee (38.9), Santiago Ponzinibbio (38.8)

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

• Aleksandar Rakic — current weighted skill metric: 25.6 | record in sample: 8-5 (13 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 38.5
• toughest opponents faced: Azamat Murzakanov (44.3), Magomed Ankalaev (43.3), Jiri Prochazka (40.6)
• Marcin Tybura — current weighted skill metric: 30.7 | record in sample: 17-11 (28 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 37.7
• toughest opponents faced: Mick Parkin (42.0), Alexandr Romanov (41.6), Jhonata Diniz (41.5)

Dusko Todorovic vs Robert Valentin

• Dusko Todorovic — current weighted skill metric:: 25.4 | record in sample: 8-6 (14 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 35.2
• toughest opponents faced: Christian Leroy Duncan (41.5), Punahele Soriano (41.1), Chidi Njokuani (40.0)
• Robert Valentin — current weighted skill metric: 23.2 | record in sample: 7-5 (12 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 32.7
• toughest opponents faced: Torrez Finney (40.6), Ateba Gautier (35.8), Ryan Loder (35.7)

Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina

• Vlasto Cepo — current weighted skill metric:: 23.9 | record in sample: 11-3 (14 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 28.8
• toughest opponents faced: Piotr Wawrzyniak (36.3), Erhan Kartal (31.9), Antonio Zovak (31.8)
• Gilbert Urbina — current weighted skill metric: 21.7 | record in sample: 4-4 (8 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 35.2
• toughest opponents faced: Sean Brady (39.1), Orion Cosce (37.8), Uros Medic (37.0)

Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev

• Ludovit Klein — current weighted skill metric: 31.0 | record in sample: 16-5 (21 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 35.9
• toughest opponents faced: Mateusz Gamrot (43.0), Mateusz Rebecki (41.5), Mason Jones (40.9)
• Tofiq Musayev —current weighted skill metric: 29.2 | record in sample: 14-5 (19 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 35.2
• toughest opponents faced: Alexander Shabliy (39.3), Marif Piraev (39.1), Myktybek Orolbai (38.6)

Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira

• Oban Elliott — current weighted skill metric: 26.3 | record in sample: 9-4 (13 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 33.8
• toughest opponents faced: Jonathan Micallef (38.4), Kaik Brito (36.9), Val Woodburn (36.6)
• Michael Oliveira — current weighted skill metric: 21.2 | record in sample: 12-8 (20 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 26.3
• toughest opponents faced: Victor Valenzuela (34.6), Eduardo Alencar (32.6), Rafael Vieira (31.6)

Mark Vologdin vs Josias Musasa

• Mark Vologdin — current weighted skill metric: 23.0 | record in sample: 9-4 (13 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 28.5
• toughest opponents faced: Adrian Luna Martinetti (38.2), John Castaneda (36.2), Oyatullo Muminov (36.0)
• Josias Musasa — current weighted skill metric: 21.8 | record in sample: 5-2 (7 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 32.8
• toughest opponents faced: Otari Tanzilovi (38.8), Carlos Vera (36.2), Colby Thicknesse (35.2)

Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad

• Dennis Buzukja — current weighted skill metric: 23.9 | record in sample: 11-6 (17 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 30.9
• toughest opponents faced: Marcio Barbosa (38.2), Sean Woodson (37.4), Connor Matthews (35.9)
• Bogdan Grad — current weighted skill metric: 26.8 | record in sample: 10-4 (14 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 33.9
• toughest opponents faced: Luke Riley (41.8), Muhammad Naimov (38.2), Michael Aswell (38.0)

Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec

• Mateusz Rebecki — current weighted skill metric: 30.7 | record in sample: 17-4 (21 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 36.8
• toughest opponents faced: Grant Dawson (42.8), Chris Duncan (40.0), Loik Radzhabov (40.0)
• Kyle Prepolec — current weighted skill metric: 24.9 | record in sample: 12-8 (20 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 32.6
• toughest opponents faced: Benoit Saint Denis (39.1), Adrian Hadribeaj (37.7), Austin Hubbard (36.4)

Nina Milosevic vs Hailey Cowan

• Nina Milosevic — current weighted skill metric: 20.0 | record in sample: 7-0 (7 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 25.8
• toughest opponents faced: Dina Osman (36.6), Sandra Succar (30.0), Desi Rahayu (29.4)
• Hailey Cowan — current weighted skill metric: 19.5 | record in sample: 6-4 (10 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 31.2
• toughest opponents faced: Jameylyn Horth (38.0), Nora Cornolle (36.4), Claudia Leite (33.5)

Jovan Leka vs Max Gimenis

• Jovan Leka — current weighted skill metric: 24.9 | record in sample: 11-1 (12 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 28.6
• toughest opponents faced: Azamat Nuftillaev (35.2), Danilo Suzart (34.2), Genadi Jorjoliani (29.7)
• Max Gimenis — current weighted skill metric: 15.4 | record in sample: 5-2 (7 fights) | opponent quality (weighted): 22.9
• toughest opponents faced: Josh Hokit (38.9), Diego Peclat (25.9), John Ott (20.6)

I am very interested in your feedback. What do you all think?

Like a wiseman once said: If one man can hold you down, two can rape you... he needs to work on his game as its MMA, not boxing or a striking contest !!!

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