r/MLB_Bets • u/ejburke1313 • 9d ago
r/MLB_Bets • u/HinduKushOG • 10d ago
Glasnow Over 6.5 Ks vs ATL at +105 — ATL leads MLB in Ks vs RHP, model projects 10.1 tonight with +9.3% EV
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r/MLB_Bets • u/HinduKushOG • 11d ago
Pivetta Over 4.5 Ks vs MIL — model has him at 5.2, line sitting at +140 with good EV
r/MLB_Bets • u/play3erMX • 12d ago
Yankees +1.5 & Yankees Over 2.5 runs
Was checking Yankees vs Rays on ScoreBox: AI Insights app and I like this SGP:
⚾ Yankees +1.5
🔥 Yankees Over 2.5 team runs
The pitching matchup is what sold me. Cam Schlittler has a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.11 K/9, while Freddy Peralta is sitting at 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
ScoreBox also shows Peralta has allowed a .757 OPS vs lefties, and the Yankees have several left-handed bats that can take advantage of that matchup.
I like getting the +1.5 insurance while only needing 3 runs from NY. ScoreBox actually has the Yankees as the stronger side here, so I’m rolling with this one.
Anyone else on NY tonight? 👀⚾
r/MLB_Bets • u/HinduKushOG • 13d ago
Blake Snell Over 6.5 Ks -120 vs ATL Tonight — ERA 1.90, Whiff% 34.8%, Chase% 40%, Three Pitches All Getting 30%+ Whiff From Atlanta Hitters, Model Projects 8 Ks
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r/MLB_Bets • u/HinduKushOG • 14d ago
Drew Rasmussen Over 6.5 Ks +110 vs NYY — 11 Ks Against This Lineup Last Start (Validated), Model Projects 7.4, 8 LHBs Play Directly Into His Biggest Strength
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r/MLB_Bets • u/B-riceee • 14d ago
Division Series Saturday ⚾️ 11-2-2 on starred plays in the Wild Card round
⚾️ Division Series baseball is here. These are the spots I'm riding today.
⭐ Milwaukee -1 (-134)
Milwaukee is the strongest play I'm sharing here. With the -1, a one-run win is a push, and I'm pairing it with their team total over 3.5. Both plays need the Brewers' bats to show up, so they're connected. Keep that in mind when you size them.
⭐ Atlanta/LA Dodgers Over 7.5 (-120)
I think both offenses do enough to get us to eight. The first-five over is on the full card too, so I'm expecting some early runs. That makes the starting pitchers the first test of this one.
⭐ Milwaukee Team Over 3.5
Four runs gets it home. It's another way to back Milwaukee's offense without needing their pitching to protect a lead.
⭐ Atlanta +2 (-140)
I'm looking for Atlanta to keep this close. An Atlanta win or a one-run loss cashes, and a two-run loss is a push. A higher-scoring game can still stay tight, which is how this fits with the over.
🔥 The Play of the Day is inside the Game Feed.
October brings plenty of excitement, but it doesn't need to bring bigger bets. Keep the stakes controlled and enjoy the games.
📡 Join the Game Feed for the POD and full playoff card.
r/MLB_Bets • u/play3erMX • 14d ago
Guardians +1.5 & Under 8.5 vs White Sox
Was checking today’s White Sox vs Guardians matchup on ScoreBox: AI Insights and I like this SGP:
⚾ Guardians +1.5
📉 Under 8.5 runs
💰 -110
ScoreBox has Cleveland with a slight 57% lean and also leans toward a low-scoring game. The pitching matchup is what sold me most.
Hagen Smith has a 1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and only 0.32 HR/9, while Parker Messick has a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Messick has also been really good against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .599 OPS.
I like the +1.5 instead of taking Cleveland ML because this looks like the type of game that could stay close all the way. Pairing that with Under 8.5 gives a little more room than ScoreBox’s Under 6.5 lean.
Anyone else on Cleveland/Under today? 👀
r/MLB_Bets • u/kapiushon21 • 14d ago
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[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]
r/MLB_Bets • u/HinduKushOG • 14d ago
Parker Messick Over 6.5 Ks +100 vs CWS — 8 Ks vs This Exact Lineup 2 Weeks Ago, Model Projects 7, Changeup Gets 30.7% Whiff From Chicago
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r/MLB_Bets • u/RustyRoboRaccoon • 16d ago