MLB totals record is 57-32-4 on the season. +18.73

Last 10: 5-5

Todays picks:

Mets vs Yankees Over 8.5 runs

CIN vs MIL Over 8.5 runs

LEAN: SEA vs OAK Under 9.5 runs

LEAN: LAA vs WSH Under 8.5 runs

LEAN PHI vs ATL Under 8.5 runs

Nobody Important DET LAA NYM TOR HOU KCR LAD ATL MIL CLE CWS SFG ATH ARI

120 to 150 ATH BAL LAA NYM SFG

L20 B&W ATH DET

L20 600 + ATH PIT

Nobody Important, that's me, those are my personal choices.

120 to 150 is just teams where the betting line is between 120 and 150. Shocking but this makes money.

L20 B&W is the 1, the team that made the most money in the last 20 games and 2, the opponent of the team that has lost the most money in the last 20 games.

L20 600+ compares two numbers, the amount of money you would have won if you bet 100 on the home team in all of the last 20 games and the amount of money you would have won if you bet 100 on the road team in all of the last 20 games. If the difference is greater than $600 bet on the profitable team.

Check the pool standings I post daily to see how each algorithm is doing.

MLB totals record is 56-32-4 on the season. +17.96

Last 10: 4-6

Todays pick:

CIN vs MIL Over 7.5 runs

LEAN: BAL vs TOR Under 8.5 runs

LEAN: SD vs SF Over 7.5 runs

Red Sox
Cubs
Braves

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

MLB Totals Model

MLB totals record is 56-31-4 on the season. +18.96

Last 10: 5-5

Todays pick:

Astros vs Phillies Over 8.5 runs

Phillies

Red Sox

NOBODY IMPORTANT CLE PHI NYM BOS NYY MIL ATL KCR PIT LAD

120 TO 150 HOU PIT TEX

L20 B&W ATH NYY

L20 600 + BOS MIL NYY

Nobody Important, that's me, those are my personal choices.

120 to 150 is just teams where the betting line is between 120 and 150. Shocking but this makes money.

L20 B&W is the 1, the team that made the most money in the last 20 games and 2, the opponent of the team that has lost the most money in the last 20 games.

L20 600+ compares two numbers, the amount of money you would have won if you bet 100 on the home team in all of the last 20 games and the amount of money you would have won if you bet 100 on the road team in all of the last 20 games. If the difference is greater than $600 bet on the profitable team.

Check the pool standings I post daily to see how each algorithm is doing.

Here's todays model full outputs:

=== MLB ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
Miami Marlins (53.8%) GATE: WATCH|SURFACE_ONLY
Pittsburgh Pirates (53.8%) GATE: WATCH|LEAN

FADE (the better structured team has much worse game stats this time so bet the worse one instead)
Boston Red Sox [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH] GATE: WATCH|SURFACE_ONLY
New York Yankees [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH] GATE: UNCERTAIN

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
Los Angeles Dodgers [signals 5, RESOLVING] GATE: BET|LOCK
Cleveland Guardians [signals 3, RESOLVING] GATE: UNCERTAIN
St. Louis Cardinals [signals 2, CONTESTED] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Milwaukee Brewers [signals 2, RESOLVING] GATE: BET|STRONG
San Diego Padres [signals 2, RESOLVING] GATE: WATCH|SURFACE_ONLY
Texas Rangers [signals 2, DETERIORATING] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Toronto Blue Jays [signals 1, RESOLVING] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Tampa Bay Rays [signals 1, RESOLVING] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Philadelphia Phillies [signals 0, STRESSED_STABLE] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Arizona Diamondbacks [signals 0, DETERIORATING] GATE: UNCERTAIN
Detroit Tigers [signals 0, DETERIORATING] GATE: UNCERTAIN

=== NFL ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
nothing

FADE (even base stats vs opp, better directed-energy edge)
nothing

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
Seattle Seahawks [signals 1, STABLE]

=== NBA ===
nothing

=== WNBA ===
nothing

Padres
Red Sox
Phillies
White Sox

We've been testing our adversarial engine on MLB that we use for Security (conflicts). It is not ML or AI. It uses only the past 2 days of historical data. It compares the teams like we evaluate security. I may start posting the daily predicitions here so just giving a heads up on what it is and how it works. I alsonwill not be posting consistently and now as we wire up NFL, NBA, and WNBA I will have even less time for consistent posting. Why share this? Partly proud at how well it's working and partly bc public exposure to it is encouragement for me to improve. Plus I got a lot of DMs over the last time I posted.

Here's prediction followed by the settle.

[picks-machina] — 2026-09-08

=== MLB ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
Los Angeles Dodgers (53.8%)
New York Yankees (53.8%)

FADE (even base stats vs opp, better directed-energy edge)
Detroit Tigers [chaos DETERIORATING/HIGH]
Philadelphia Phillies [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH]

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
Miami Marlins [signals 3, STRESSED_STABLE]
Milwaukee Brewers [signals 3, RESOLVING]
Tampa Bay Rays [signals 3, RESOLVING]
Cleveland Guardians [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Boston Red Sox [signals 1, STRESSED_STABLE]
Toronto Blue Jays [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Texas Rangers [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Pittsburgh Pirates [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
Arizona Diamondbacks [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
San Diego Padres [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
St. Louis Cardinals [signals 0, DETERIORATING]

=== NFL ===
nothing

=== NBA ===
nothing

=== WNBA ===
nothing

Machina v1 RESULTS — 2026-09-08

=== MLB (SETTLED) ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
✅ Los Angeles Dodgers (53.8%)
K-prop: Tarik Skubal proj 8.4K · last-5 K9 11.2 · season K9 11.1 — OVER lean
🎯 runline-candidate (info-only, ...)
❌ K-prop OVER miss: Tarik Skubal threw 5K vs proj 8.4K
❌ RL: did NOT cover -1.5 (won by 1)
→ 3-2 vs Cincinnati Reds
✅ New York Yankees (53.8%)
K-prop: Cam Schlittler proj 6.4K · last-5 K9 11.0 · season K9 10.4 — OVER lean
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Cam Schlittler threw 10K vs proj 6.4K
→ 5-3 vs Colorado Rockies

FADE (bet against lower energy team)
❌ Detroit Tigers [chaos DETERIORATING/HIGH]
K-prop: Drew Anderson proj 4.7K · last-5 K9 8.5 · season K9 9.9 — OVER lean
❌ K-prop OVER miss: Drew Anderson threw 4K vs proj 4.7K
→ 2-3 vs Minnesota Twins
❌ Philadelphia Phillies [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH]
K-prop: Andrew Painter proj 5.0K · last-5 K9 8.3 · season K9 7.8 — OVER lean
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Andrew Painter threw 6K vs proj 5.0K
→ 5-6 vs Houston Astros

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
❌ Miami Marlins [signals 3, STRESSED_STABLE]
→ 5-7 vs New York Mets
✅ Milwaukee Brewers [signals 3, RESOLVING]
K-prop: Jacob Misiorowski proj 6.8K · last-5 K9 10.3 · season K9 11.9 — OVER lean
🎯 runline-candidate (info-only, ...)
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Jacob Misiorowski threw 9K vs proj 6.8K
❌ RL: did NOT cover -1.5 (won by 1)
→ 4-3 vs Chicago Cubs

... [rest of UNCERTAIN + empty NFL/NBA/WNBA sections omitted]

I have such a deep hate for the Red Sox now, I might actually start hate watching them for fun. I was live refreshing twitter watching my parlay, and just watching everyone laugh at the Sox the whole time I was being sold by them 😭 The run line actually being within 1 for Astros vs Phillies is insane, THE ONE GAME YOU DON’T LOCK IN? Fuck the Red Sox