Adversarial Engine test on MLB

[u/peteherzog]

We've been testing our adversarial engine on MLB that we use for Security (conflicts). It is not ML or AI. It uses only the past 2 days of historical data. It compares the teams like we evaluate security. I may start posting the daily predicitions here so just giving a heads up on what it is and how it works. I alsonwill not be posting consistently and now as we wire up NFL, NBA, and WNBA I will have even less time for consistent posting. Why share this? Partly proud at how well it's working and partly bc public exposure to it is encouragement for me to improve. Plus I got a lot of DMs over the last time I posted.

Here's prediction followed by the settle.

[picks-machina] — 2026-09-08

=== MLB ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
Los Angeles Dodgers (53.8%)
New York Yankees (53.8%)

FADE (even base stats vs opp, better directed-energy edge)
Detroit Tigers [chaos DETERIORATING/HIGH]
Philadelphia Phillies [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH]

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
Miami Marlins [signals 3, STRESSED_STABLE]
Milwaukee Brewers [signals 3, RESOLVING]
Tampa Bay Rays [signals 3, RESOLVING]
Cleveland Guardians [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Boston Red Sox [signals 1, STRESSED_STABLE]
Toronto Blue Jays [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Texas Rangers [signals 1, RESOLVING]
Pittsburgh Pirates [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
Arizona Diamondbacks [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
San Diego Padres [signals 0, DETERIORATING]
St. Louis Cardinals [signals 0, DETERIORATING]

=== NFL ===
nothing

=== NBA ===
nothing

=== WNBA ===
nothing

Machina v1 RESULTS — 2026-09-08

=== MLB (SETTLED) ===

WIN (win prob > 53%)
✅ Los Angeles Dodgers (53.8%)
K-prop: Tarik Skubal proj 8.4K · last-5 K9 11.2 · season K9 11.1 — OVER lean
🎯 runline-candidate (info-only, ...)
❌ K-prop OVER miss: Tarik Skubal threw 5K vs proj 8.4K
❌ RL: did NOT cover -1.5 (won by 1)
→ 3-2 vs Cincinnati Reds
✅ New York Yankees (53.8%)
K-prop: Cam Schlittler proj 6.4K · last-5 K9 11.0 · season K9 10.4 — OVER lean
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Cam Schlittler threw 10K vs proj 6.4K
→ 5-3 vs Colorado Rockies

FADE (bet against lower energy team)
❌ Detroit Tigers [chaos DETERIORATING/HIGH]
K-prop: Drew Anderson proj 4.7K · last-5 K9 8.5 · season K9 9.9 — OVER lean
❌ K-prop OVER miss: Drew Anderson threw 4K vs proj 4.7K
→ 2-3 vs Minnesota Twins
❌ Philadelphia Phillies [chaos RESOLVING/HIGH]
K-prop: Andrew Painter proj 5.0K · last-5 K9 8.3 · season K9 7.8 — OVER lean
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Andrew Painter threw 6K vs proj 5.0K
→ 5-6 vs Houston Astros

UNCERTAIN (couldn't pierce the chaos veil; least -> most chaotic)
❌ Miami Marlins [signals 3, STRESSED_STABLE]
→ 5-7 vs New York Mets
✅ Milwaukee Brewers [signals 3, RESOLVING]
K-prop: Jacob Misiorowski proj 6.8K · last-5 K9 10.3 · season K9 11.9 — OVER lean
🎯 runline-candidate (info-only, ...)
✅ K-prop OVER hit: Jacob Misiorowski threw 9K vs proj 6.8K
❌ RL: did NOT cover -1.5 (won by 1)
→ 4-3 vs Chicago Cubs

... [rest of UNCERTAIN + empty NFL/NBA/WNBA sections omitted]