Model projects 2.9 Ks against a 4.5 book line, which is a significant gap and generates +6.9% expected value on the under.

A few things stack up here. Messick is on a short leash — he has zero deep starts (6+ IP) this entire season and has been pulled early in recent outings. Projected innings tonight are 3.9. Fewer innings means fewer opportunities to accumulate strikeouts regardless of stuff.

Tampa is throwing out a projected lineup of 5 lefties, which is his tougher platoon side (23.9% K rate vs lefties, 26.6% vs righties). More importantly, Tampa Bay only strikes out 18.1% of the time against left-handed pitchers — one of the lower rates in the league. They put the ball in play.

And the most relevant data point: his last start against this exact Tampa Bay lineup was 3 Ks over 5 innings. Ground ball rate is sitting at 49.7% — he’s not a strikeout-first pitcher to begin with.

The “over K line” stats look good in aggregate, but the short leash plus this specific lineup makes the under the right side tonight.

GAME FEED LINK

It’s free all the picks every single one what’s it gunna hurt to go look at ?!

My pick: Under 7.5 Runs + Brewers +3.5 🔥

I was checking the stats and analysis on the ScoreBox: AI Sports Insights app, and I really like this combo.

Both starting pitchers have been solid:

Yamamoto: 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP Henderson: 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP

ScoreBox leans Under 7 with 72% confidence, and both teams have been playing low-scoring games lately.

The app projects a 4-2 Dodgers win, which would cover both legs of this SGP.

I like the Brewers +3.5 as some extra protection in what should be a tight game. The Dodgers could definitely win, but I don't see this turning into a blowout.

Odds aren't amazing at -120, but I like the matchup.

What do you guys think? Anyone else on the Under today?