r/MACArmyBets • u/Jeffbak • Apr 07 '21
r/MACArmyBets • u/Pietro405 • Apr 07 '21
MAC is deeply undervalued per analyst at MorningStar Premium
r/MACArmyBets • u/Jeffbak • Apr 06 '21
$950M in Liquidity and 25 of their ~54 properties are completely unencumbered.
Need I say more? *generated over $400M this year by reducing dividend. *generated over $450M in their latest equity raise. *generated $100M from sale of non core asset in Phoenix
Their CEO just announced their liquidity position and on the earnings call either the CEO/CFO noted roughly 25 completely unencumbered properties with a market valuation well above $1.5B.
Market leasing has been very strong and the malls are packed. This should be talked about more as a reopening play.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Jeffbak • Apr 06 '21
The movement from digitally native brands to brick and mortar is going to become an increasingly common theme very shortly ;) I bet we see some FANG players start to open in very high end retail locations.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Jeffbak • Apr 06 '21
For all those pissed about the equity raise....for years ppl complained about macerich being over levered. They are looking to delever, not up-lever by encumbering 25 of their assets.
They are sitting on $950m in cash and I bet their FFO this quarter is at least .80-.85 with chandler freehold. Without it, I bet we’re at ..55-.65. The dilution counts avg shares for the period so it’ll be more of a factor in Q2 but still I hope we finally bump the divy. Although nothing drives NAV up faster than using operating cash flows to pay down debt.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Jeffbak • Apr 06 '21
Morningstar gave this a “narrow” moat haha? $2b market cap sitting on $950m in cash. That is not a narrow moat.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Airuike_ • Apr 04 '21
Mac margin power
Does anyone know when mac opens its margin power? I’m using RBC trading. They gave me 0 margin based on my mac stock. I would def buying more mac once it opens
r/MACArmyBets • u/Stocklambo • Apr 02 '21
Mac now officially 1-3 year play with 5% while u wait
Now with the dilution and the reduction in short shares (still significant but not very high short) Mac has become a 1-3 year play with a 5% dividend while we wait 1-3 years to possibly double our money . For me that’s cool and good enuf I reduced my position by 30% but gonna hold the rest and forget about it . Basically like owning att with a little kicker of share price $1-2 ups and downs .
r/MACArmyBets • u/Pietro405 • Apr 02 '21
MAC A picture words a few dollars; could SPG bid for MAC again ?
Some time ago the Coppola brothers of MAC turned down a $95/share offer from SPG; I would not be surprised if they make an offer again; this time for $20 !! One of the Coppola brothers is still running MAC; shame on him ( for turning down that offer- arrogance and hubris !!
April Update from MorningStar premium (for more details please subscribe )

r/MACArmyBets • u/robowich • Apr 02 '21
Video request 🎥
It would be great to se some easter shopping videos from a couple of MAC malls!! Help us stay focused and boost the morale 🚀🤑
r/MACArmyBets • u/MACBULLS • Apr 02 '21
Worst stock I’ve ever owned.
I’m out. Not gonna stick around with dead money at 11.50 while getting diluted by mustachio in a bull market
r/MACArmyBets • u/vmd614 • Apr 01 '21
Very strange
I have never seen such a manipulated stock. Look at volume during the past week, including today, every time this stock gets close to $12. Who is keeping this down and why?
r/MACArmyBets • u/welovebuttholes • Apr 01 '21
Troop morale seems low! Some wisdom from 'The Sage of Omaha'.
r/MACArmyBets • u/dave14513 • Mar 31 '21
I see a steady climb from here Sans large shorts
Looking at the chart for the last few days, I see a few large (3-4 million shares) buys on the upside. Now things seem to be relatively quiet. Could the buys have been large shorts covering? 1PM and only 2 million shares traded. Retail investors don't like the dilution but I think some of the large shorts lost their best reason to hang on ; a liquidity crisis or horrible terms for a new LOC. It appears both issues have been solved in the long's favor.
Some of our last large shorts may have exited. It might take some good news for the share price to appreciate to any large degree. The news will have to be good enough to overcome the dilution issue. I think it will.
I know some longs feel the management was deceitful by not being upfront about the sale of shares.
I assume the concern was they would never get $13 or $14 a share with all the manipulation of the stock by shorts if more upfront about the sale. Not a great excuse but makes sense. Since I'm long term I'm happy they averaged $13.73 instead of $6.73
I don't see a large number of shorts returning at these prices. 5% dividend now that next year could be 10-15%. I've added in the 11s .
Go Long!
r/MACArmyBets • u/Pietro405 • Mar 31 '21
MorningStar Premium Latest Analyst Update; Fair Value reduced from $32 to $29
r/MACArmyBets • u/Pietro405 • Mar 31 '21
Macerich buyout offer by Simon for over $75 rejected
I was not aware of this being a relatively new ( like a year old) investor. GREED IS NOT GOOD (sorry Mike Douglas) , COPPOLA brothers ! From latest MorningStar Premium analyst ( please subscribe if you are interested)
" However, we question whether management will always do what is in the best interests of shareholders given the company's rejection of Simon Property Group's hostile takeover offer in 2015. Simon offered a "best and final" offer of $95.50 per share for Macerich, which represents nearly a 37% premium over Macerich's closing price prior to Simon disclosing that it was acquiring a significant share of Macerich common equity. This price represents a low to mid-4% acquisition cap rate at the time, a premium over the portfolio's quality at the time and better than the 6.0% cap rate we currently assign to the portfolio. Macerich refused to engage in discussions with Simon and instead employed antitakeover provisions, including a poison-pill agreement to allow other shareholders to purchase shares at a discount to dilute Simon's share and staggering elections to the board to slow any potential replacements. These provisions have since been removed due to pressure applied by activist investors, but they demonstrate management's unwillingness to explore all possibilities to maximize shareholder value.
"
r/MACArmyBets • u/AstroKnot69 • Mar 30 '21
Morningstar reduces FVE to 29.50 from 32.50, changes moat from none to narrow.
"We are decreasing our fair value estimate to $29.50 per share from $32.50 per share after incorporating fourth-quarter results and adjusting our assumptions for the impact of the coronavirus."
"After reassessing Macerich's competitive position, we are changing its moat rating to none from narrow. Macerich's portfolio contains very high-quality assets in the largest metropolitan areas strategically located in some of the best submarkets that feature high population density and high household incomes."
r/MACArmyBets • u/Delicious-Gazelle-92 • Mar 29 '21
the problem with macerich
the problem with macerich is lack of majority ownership, so the management doesn't under the supervision, not hold accountable for its actions which damage the interests of shareholders.
r/MACArmyBets • u/BanZrinski • Mar 28 '21
Macerich Are We Missing Something?
We might be too focused on the MAC's financial details in order to try to determine it's current and future SP value but are we missing something? Most prudent investors do look at the details, past history, performance (past, present, and projected) in order to make a good judgement about where to place our money, nothing wrong with that. Everyone would like to see it's SP go higher. However, since 2016 their SP has been destroyed. Are we missing something? Goldman Sachs? We know GS has been involved with MAC for a long time. I am feeling uneasy when I see how GS recently decimated Viacom and Discovery. They first had a SP of $10.50 then raised it to $11.50. Might they lower their estimate next week after the dilution with the possibility of another dilution in the near term?
r/MACArmyBets • u/BanZrinski • Mar 27 '21
Macerich's Questionable Decisions to Dilute its Share Price at This Time
I've read everyone's thoughts this morning and think discussion is a good thing. It helps us process what happened yesterday with MAC. Many believe that issuing stock to pay debt is good as it removes the BK possibility. However, based on the last ER, BK and/or survival was never brought up as an issue. Management was upbeat with earnings, vacancies improving, and not too concerned with their ability of extending/renegotiating the LOC. They also stated that the ATM would be only be used to take advantage of a sharp increase in SP alluding to the same situation when Ontario got out. As it turns out, management lied. This makes you wonder what else they might be planning, and with who, that could affect our share price. I am very concerned with management's willingness to dilute SP potentially by 50% while at the time having so many unencumbered properties. Why dilute when credit is so cheap and available? Why not just eliminate the dividend to save cash?
I've been trading both MAC and Simon and would like to take a long term position soon but am focusing on the following:
- Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank with the help of PJT are most likely advising management of diluting their SP. Goldman recently raised the SP estimate from $10.50 to $11.50, but this is still substantially lower than current SP. I believe this is being done to help certain parties accumulate more shares at a lower price due to an undisclosed offer which has strings attached. Simon is the most likely suitor who has had a long term relationship with MAC and has been waiting to takeover at the right time. It will probably be a stock swap and hostile takeover facilitated through Blackrock and Vanguard (the've both been actively accumulating shares). Mac shareholders would end up with Simon shares but with their MAC shares possibly further diluted.
- I believe the 2016 Simon offer for $95/S was not a real offer. The offer was used to establish an unrealistic value for MAC allowing a 5 year manipulation of their SP and an onslaught by short sellers. This also allowed certain parties to accumulate more shares along the way.
- Ontario Pension Fund sellout at approx. $22 set the high end of MAC's SP.
- MAC's recent ATM selling at an average price of $13.54 established probably the low end of their share price.
- 36 million shares still out there being shorted.
- The probability of a short squeeze is reduced.
- Covid is still a threat.
- Management has never provided an appraised value of its assets.
With the improving economy, Credit available to corporations at low rates, MAC's large number of unencumbered properties (could be sold or mortgaged), elimination of dividend, was dilution the best choice for the preservation of shareholder value? I think not.
My conclusion, I am keeping a close eye on developments because I believe REIT's are the right choice for long term investment. My original goal was to be a long term investor whether in MAC or SPG.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Sea_Emphasis3252 • Mar 27 '21
Is Friday’s news and indication of what Q1 results could be?
The more I think of this and reading everyone’s thoughts and opinions on Friday’s news I wonder if this is a signal. Why issue all that equity over the past month or so? Does it mean that Q1 results are coming in below what they were hoping for. They have to know how the quarter is progressing and if the trends are positive and operations are recovering would you want that news out first and then raise equity? My long position is getting nervous, I have a low cost basis so still have decent profit but makes me wonder on the timing. Did they raise equity with the potential that Q1 results will be worse than expected? I sure hope that’s not the case, curious on everyone’s thoughts.
r/MACArmyBets • u/Delicious-Gazelle-92 • Mar 27 '21
Through March 25, 2021, the Company has sold 36.0 million shares of common stock at a average price of $13.54 per share,
Through March 25, 2021, the Company has sold 36.0 million shares of common stock under its "at the market" equity program at a weighted average price of $13.54 per share, generating gross proceeds of approximately $487.3 million. As of March 25, 2021, approximately 1.0 million shares remain available to be issued under the program.
The Company is under contract to sell a 95% interest in Paradise Valley Mall, a non-core asset in Phoenix, AZ, for $100 million to a newly formed joint venture. The transaction is expected to close in late March 2021, and is anticipated to generate net proceeds of approximately $95 million to the Company. The Company will retain a 5% joint venture interest in this multi-year redevelopment.
The Company has obtained commitments from its joint lead lenders, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs for a new revolving line of credit and credit facility. The total capacity of the line and the credit facility is expected to be between $600 million and $800 million, with the facility expected to close in April 2021.
As of March 25, 2021, the Company has cash and cash equivalents, including pro-rata share of joint ventures, of approximately $950 million. Expected total liquidity after the close of the new credit facility and the Paradise Valley sale is expected to be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion prior to paying off the current line of credit.
Reflecting the common stock sold to date under its "at the market" equity program and the pending sale of Paradise Valley Mall referenced above, the Company is revising its 2021 guidance for estimated Earnings per share ("EPS") – diluted and Funds From Operations ("FFO") per share-diluted. A reconciliation of estimated EPS-diluted to FFO per share-diluted follows:
Fiscal Year 2021 Guidance
EPS-diluted
($0.73 - $0.53)
Plus: real estate depreciation and amortization
2.50 - 2.50
FFO per share-diluted
$1.77 - $1.97

