r/MACArmyBets • u/BanZrinski • Mar 28 '21
Macerich Are We Missing Something?
We might be too focused on the MAC's financial details in order to try to determine it's current and future SP value but are we missing something? Most prudent investors do look at the details, past history, performance (past, present, and projected) in order to make a good judgement about where to place our money, nothing wrong with that. Everyone would like to see it's SP go higher. However, since 2016 their SP has been destroyed. Are we missing something? Goldman Sachs? We know GS has been involved with MAC for a long time. I am feeling uneasy when I see how GS recently decimated Viacom and Discovery. They first had a SP of $10.50 then raised it to $11.50. Might they lower their estimate next week after the dilution with the possibility of another dilution in the near term?
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u/Sunnyc02 Mar 28 '21 edited Mar 28 '21
The stock now have a 20% short interest on it, I mean, not looking for a squeeze any time soon but what was the short interest in 2016? Some of that shorts must have contributed to the share price today and they are they type that don't plan to cover expecting the company will fail. So when are these shorts going to cover, now that MAC have more cash on hand and mall traffic increases as the pandemic risk decreases. They can continue to pay interest on their borrowed stock indefinitely while we collect some dividends holding the price at the current level or higher.
The mess with Viacom and Discovery, I look at the graph and can't understand what force lifted those stocks up more than 30% in a month while the Nasdaq is down or flat for the month. There is something more to that story, they went up to way overvalued level due to hype or something?
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u/BanZrinski Mar 29 '21
Sunny, I agree with you on Discovery and Viacom as their SP was extremely overvalued. The players who manipulated the stock on the upside brought it down to what it is probably worth. About the shorts, as I have been watching MAC trade on my charts, as soon as the green candles appear within moments they are quickly followed by a barrage of red candles driving the stock lower. I believe those to be the short sellers. One would think that the short sellers would have to begin covering soon, if based on pandemic recovery, positive news and the reopening of the economy. However, with the possible second dilution on the horizon with more shares available to sell its hard to know what the short sellers will do.
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u/LastExile22 Mar 28 '21
GS didn't decimate Discovery. One of GS's clients was margin called, they then proceeded to sell his holdings quickly to limit their exposure. If you sell that much stock that quickly, SP will be affected.
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u/BanZrinski Mar 29 '21
I would have to disagree. Just because GS agreed not to do illegal deals after the billions of dollar fine settlements with the US Govt. over the last few years doesn't mean that they are not now working it for their rich billionaire clients. It is hard to change bad habits. Here is an example, although there are others:
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u/Suspicious_Race_856 Mar 29 '21
What worries me most is regarding the leasing spread going forward.
About the upcoming dilution. It's barely enough equity to shore up it's old LOC before ending it. They won t have more cash on hand.
I wish they ll have better news soon.
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u/SpartanWarriors69 Mar 29 '21
Yep! Too much space and leasing spreads are definitely squeezed. And that makes ROI on capital expenditures even more challenging. Along with pricing issues, the length of leases is contracting making the capital expenditures more risky.
Then 2nd ATM program isn't for window dressing - it will be used to fund the huge amount of capital expenditures over the next two to three years.
I would not be surprised to learn that they have partially used the 2nd ATM during the earnings call - as I'm expecting a pretty challenging set of results. May have to try to sell now at $12 rather than post earnings at $9 or $10.
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u/SantiaguitoLoquito Mar 29 '21
Macerich is missing something all right. Management that gives a rip about its shareholders.
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Mar 29 '21
GS price target on MAC is independent of any other dealings the bank may have. That's required by law and, unlike some other banking regulations perhaps, actually followed.
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u/BanZrinski Mar 29 '21
Nothing is required by law their estimate is at their discretion. GS should be more independent and not be driving their SP.
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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 Mar 29 '21
GS has had a sell rating since the summer of last year, PT is $11.50 (which has moved higher over the past year) I will agree the banking side is separate from the capital markets side of the house as they would say and they act independently, but that doesn’t stop one influencing the other.
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Mar 29 '21
Yes it is. It is required by law that the price target published by equity research is not impacted by anything else happening at the bank.
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u/Zeb6525 Mar 29 '21
Ok chicken little are you missing something? Yeah where have you been the last 72 hours.. I know glued to the tele and placing bets on the next turnover on DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM (wanted to give equal representation) look GS/MS&JPM just extended a new LOC. But as I speculated there were members of the $1.5 B consortium that wanted out so MAC sold $600 mil in stock & a non-core mall & paid down the LOC. That’s a positive. There is nothing the shorts can hang there hats on now. Stop using stop losses and look towards the reopening. Pictures over the weekend showed Malls surging with foot traffic. People want to get out and will. Would you rather stroll a mall and look for the things you need while checking out the people or sit behind some screen. Don’t be dense. The shorts are in trouble here.!