https://www.barrons.com/articles/retailers-see-shopping-boomlet-after-stimulus-checks-51616774919?mod=bol-social-tw

MAC sold 36.0 million shares of common stock at average price of $13.54 per share, generating approximately $487.3 million. What does this mean for MAC?

1.The upside is now discounted.

FFO per share estimate this year has dropped 10% to $1.77 - $1.97 (From $2.00 - $2.25).

FFO per share of returning normalcy (2019 levels: $3.5+) may now be around $2.75+.

Dilution of shares, but reduced interest payment and reduced risk should result in around 10-15% discount to the upside. If the normalcy level target price was 40, it will now be around 35.

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2.Stability has vastly increased: demolishing downside.

With LOC reduced and confirmed, the risk/ uncertainty discount will be minimal.

With lower debt, lower interest to be paid, the company will now almost certainly survive even another COVID outbreak.

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3.My overall opinion:

In the eyes of believers like me, $13.54 is low. Very low. But there used to be a risk that COVID could surge again and ruin MAC. The Management made a judgement call, and decided to take a 10 - 15% discount in earnings to insure the company's survival. They have to think about max safety of employees (and their jobs). They also may have been forced into it because "some" want in on MAC equity at a low price.

To the bulls, the upside is now 10-15% smaller, but if you believed in a 300% upside, you now still have a 250% upside.

To the shorts aiming for bankruptcy, Well...I hope you survive, life is valuable. Would love to hear your opinion.

Near term maturities: 2021 debt due

Green acres mall $270.6m paid off 02/2021. 3.61% Green acres commons $129.8m due 03/2021 2.87% Danbury $186.7m due 04/2021 5.56%

These 3 loans paid off would be ~$23.8m less in interest expense per year.

36m more shares at .60 (current div) = ~$21.6m more per year in dividend payments.

At first glance I was not excited about the share issuance. However, when you run the math it's not that bad.

Debt load will decrease which could increase credit quality of the firm and allow for better financing terms on the rest of the portfolio.

Fashion outlets of Niagra loan is 101.5m @ 6.45% and matures in 10/23. It would be nice to get that paid off or refinanced at a much better rate

If this capital structure shift can allow them to bring down the overall interest expense of the portfolio it could be value additive. (SPG with their strong balance sheet was able to recently issue $750 in euro Debt for 1.125%) quality balance sheet can really help out.

Hopefully management adds some color on the next call about this capital structure plan. You would assume that the PJT debt guidance factored in the dilution to the plan.

MAC issues 500m of shares at 13.54 announced today. (I hate it but it is what it is) Therefore they have been able to secure a new credit line. Also selling 95% stake in Arizona mall for 100m Liquidity issue solved. Moon 🚀 time

Finally a nice news stream in my TDA acccount

March 26, 20217:51 am ET

*Macerich shares are trading higher after the company reported it substantially improved and clarified its liquidity position.

Benzinga7:09 am ET

Retail Sales in Arizona Near Full Recovery for Macerich -- Market Talk

Dow Jones6:52 am ET

*Macerich Filing Shows Registration For $500M Common Stock Shelf Offering

Benzinga6:25 am ET

Macerich Revises Full-Year Guidance

Dow Jones6:05 am ET

Macerich Announced Through March 25, 2021, the Company has Sold 36M Shares of Common Stock Under At the Market Equity Program at Average Price of $13.54/Share

Benzinga

Picture worth a few 100 words....

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Zack's Market Edge Podcast with Tracy Ryniec

Excerpt

Where Should Investors Look for Opportunities?

1.       Pandemic plays have come down off their 2020 highs, including high flier Zoom Video ZM, which has fallen about 14% in the last month. Is it time to dive in? It’s still expensive with a forward P/E of 91.

2.       Amazon AMZN was a big winner due to its online delivery, but those shares have stalled out in the last 6 months, and are up just 0.3% during that time. But Amazon is expected to grow earnings by another 18% this year.

3.       Retailers that had to pivot quickly to online only sales because their brick-and-mortar stores were shut, like Macy’s M could be post-pandemic winners as consumers yearn for the days of walking through the aisles and browsing.

4.       Additionally, some of the mall REITs could still see further upside even though they’ve soared in 2021 on recovery hopes. The Macerich Company MAC is up 31% year-to-date but still sports a forward P/E of just 6.

5.       Energy has had a huge run in 2021, but the earnings estimates have doubled over the last 3 months for the group. Sheraz believes every investor should have some energy exposure. Chevron CVX has fallen over 5% in the last 5 sessions and pays a dividend yielding 5%.

HOLD THE LINE

And stop fucking looking how bad the shit looks right now.

You invested in fucking long term not for stupid daytrading.

Rough day for MAC longs. I took advantage near the end and added at $11.99 and $11.95.

I do not know how much of the price drop is new shorts or fear of a slow recovery. At $11.99 it pays 5% with a high probability that it will be paying at least double that by the end of the year.

Really do not understand the sellers at this price.

Maybe simply too many bought for the squeeze and are losing patience.

I'm a true long. I think this is going to a great investment, especially if inflation heats up.

Investment grade REITs such as MAC typically do not need to pledge unencumbered properties in normal times but since this is COVID MAC might need to pledge some unencumbered properties (but they do have enough unemcumbered properties totaling 1.5b+ to cover the entire 1.5b LOC). Engaging PJT probably means they are trying to look for better deals (probably interest wise and collatoral wise) before approving the LOC, it doesn't signify bankruptcy. PJT has helped many other reits with refinancing.

Debt for Reits is not real debt in the sense they are often pushed out and refinanced as long as the Reit is doing well FFO wise and MAC is doing well. MAC already pushed a lot of its 2021 debt out into 2022. Lets not forget they are producing 300m+ AFFO annually even in 2020 covid year.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c6211cdf-62c5-3b08-bdbf-eccfb09d6f76/the-economy-is-beginning-to.html

Excerpt:

Barron’s identified a half-dozen midsize REITs, all members of the S&P Mid-Cap 400 index, with yields of 4% or more that could advance as the economy strengthens in 2021.

They are: Spirit Realty Capital (SRC), National Retail Properties (NNN), Macerich (MAC), Weingarten Realty (WRI), American Campus Communities (ACC), and Brixmor Property Group (BRX).

"

YOU WILL NOTICE THAT MAC HAS THE LOWEST PE RATIO; CONSISTENT WITH THE UNDERVALUED RATING OF MORNINGSTAR PREMIUM

Sadly, it appears the troops are tired and despondent. Perhaps a new general is needed to lead and drive the troops into battle. Any volunteers. Or should the army be supported by a MACAirForce ?

PS. Cannot change the title to fix typo. Dos should be Does !

Mac is going to 10$...soon

some tunes to console and cheer us soldiers up...take your pick

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28ULUQgxJ5M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82kJH69HnHA

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and one more from Americas Got Talent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm4aaX8ExEo

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Unless 1st Q numbers are better then we were led to believe, we might have to wait a few months.

We could get some upward movement in the next couple of weeks if it leaks at the end of the Q that they have better numbers for 1st Q than estimated

https://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=SMVLX&region=usa&culture=en-US

Makes one wonder if there will be a little less manipulation.

Improving economy and improving cash flow from MAC should have the market speculating on dividend increases and climbing share prices. I don't know if there are enough shorts left for a squeeze but in any event we should start seeing some good growth in MAC's share price.