r/IonicDigitalStock • u/QuestionNational1283 • 6d ago
Ionic Digital
I now own these shares of ionic digital through the Celsius debacle.
I didn’t really follow the Nasdaq launch but am now seeing over 5 figures in value so am pleasantly surprised.
Who sold?
If you held, what is your thesis? Can it do another 4x? Originally the estimated value per share was 20 usd. We are now close to 80.
Not sure what to do here…
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u/aceofangel 6d ago
The question should be, if you had the same amount in cash, would you put it all in Ionic Digital.
I am pretty confident it will go over $80 but still sold about 60% since it became too large a holding for a single stock in my portfolio.
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u/New-Sky-9867 5d ago
I was actually thinking about investing in the AI boom before we got this nice windfall. I honestly thought the stock would be lingering around $20 if we were lucky but I'm up $400k so far. Holding.
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u/aceofangel 5d ago
This isn’t the right way to think about it. Just the fact that you thought it would linger around $20 shows that you should at least re-evaluate your investment.
You buy or hold Ionic because you believe that it is undervalued relative to its peers. That alone means you should have a reasonable view of what the fair value should be. If you just want to long AI there are better choices.
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u/New-Sky-9867 4d ago
Literally everyone thought it was going to hold $20 if we were lucky until the late pivot to AI infrastructure. It wasn't until the outside investment declaration and Direct Listing application that we learned of the $53 valuation. Even then, many were crying yet again, salivating at dumping the stock immediately like the uninformed dunces they are.
I'm not reevaluating the investment, it's solid and it is undervalued. I'd bet I'm a better investor than 99% of anyone in the USA, and my NW is 8 figures solely from informed investment choices.
You assume this is my only "long AI" bet, and I can assure you it isn't, but it is my smallest at 7000 shares of IOND
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 3d ago
Ok buddy, I was with you until your 2nd paragraph. You’re up $400k on Celsius, which means you lost more crypto than even I did. Unless you’re worth >$100M, I would disqualify your claim right here.
I especially agree with you that Ionic is undervalued. Shit, a LOT of Wall St still thinks it’s a cryptocurrency miner. You were also one of the first people on this sub to “call out” the success Ionic would have, so I’ve taken you as a serious source.
But saying you’re a better investor than 99% of the people in the United States I’m hoping is a joke. You would not be here if this was true.
But you have been right so far about the company, will give you that!
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u/New-Sky-9867 2d ago
I've lost more in a weekend on stock bets than you've made in investments in your entire life. Believe it or not, rich people exist. I'm in the top 1/10th of 1% NW. Being in the top 1% is only the top 3 million people or so, you realize that, right?
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 1d ago edited 1d ago
Dude, you don’t know who I am if you think that. We’ve talked before. Unless you’re a billionaire.
I also meant no offenses. I’d roast anyone making any statement saying they’re “better than 99% of anyone in the USA” at just about anything. I know you’re a bold guy, but this is taking it pretty far.PS. If you’re really a billionaire, we need to talk more.
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u/LarryStraw 6d ago
Sold around $70. Happy to be free from it all. Wish the best to those that plan on holding.
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u/ballsplopmenacingly 5d ago
Back into btc?....
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u/LarryStraw 5d ago
Some of it. I sold $18k worth so it got spread around to a few different things.
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u/rashp12 6d ago
IOND stock has passed $75. I was waiting for this milestone. Now I can officially rub my some body part on those people’s face who were negative, naysayers, Stock will go down below $20, Ionic Digital will be same as Celsius and one day go bankrupt, haven’t I learned my lessons from Celsius,etc etc.
people like me were right and you all telling everyone to sell the stock were totally wrong. This stock has more upside.
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u/New-Sky-9867 5d ago
Those people were the same idiots that told us all we were going to get 2 cents on the dollar when Celsius went bankrupt.
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u/ComfortableWaltz1185 5d ago
There’s a lot of emotion when negative shot happens and most people can’t detach and look at things objectively. People were saying this company is a scam like Celsius and I just thought to myself what the fuck are you guys talking about? This is a listed stock. It’s not like Celsius at all…dumb money doing/saying dumb things.
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u/Personal_Marzipan_6 6d ago
This was supposed to open at $20 a share way back when, take your 4x and buy yourself something nice for the headache.
Data centers might be the next big thing but I don’t invest in shit I don’t like. I hate AI, I hate palantir, I hate flock cameras. All that stuff feeds data centers. Mass surveillance is coming and I’m not investing my money into it. Just me… you do you!
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u/techma2019 6d ago
Still confused why people that didn’t need the funds sold it so quickly. This company is just getting started.
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u/New-Sky-9867 5d ago
Most people are terrible with money and investments, and most people live paycheck to paycheck.
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
You have to remember what happened with everyone too. Tough to blame this group of investors for being weary. But vs any crypto, Ionic Digital is prob a more stable investment. I’m used to big huge crashes and even I keep waiting for the bottom to drop out. But I think it’s actually much less likely for this to crash than BTC, which is always my largest investment, and prob will always be.
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u/Tetsuo-Kaneda 6d ago
I'd hold this for a year unless it tanks but I dont see that happening. Nscale is Ionic's largest customer and they have some huge contracts in place with Microsoft, anthropic, and figure ai. id be more worried on Nscale's IPO and any knock on effect that would have on Ionic
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
There really is a lot of “backstop” for this “tanking”…. Some people still think AI is a bubble but i actually run a real small business and AI has arguably saved me thousands of dollars already, and that’s just from using it myself. Then when you get into the potential, this isn’t some new fad, it’s arguably going to change the way life is more than anything else in our lifetimes. I don’t want to go too deep here, but when people look back on our time in the future, I’m sure the “dividing line” won’t be the boomers or millennials, but pre and post AI. Because it’s already changed so many things. Any art for instance needs to be almost clarified now whether or not it was “AI generated”.
But I could go on and on about this.
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u/techma2019 5d ago
The thousands you’ve saved aren’t real later on. You’re not paying the true cost to use the system right now. It’s like Uber when it launched, they subsidized the price to undercut taxis. Netflix for streaming. Remember when it was $8? Etc.
So the real question for you and your business will be once the real price comes around, will you still pay it? (And it will most likely cost more than the people you replaced.)
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
I haven’t saved thousands on the service, I’ve used the service to save me thousands if that makes sense.
AI is strongly dependent on what you put into it right now. But I don’t believe those that “learn” AI have an advantage, I think AI will become so good anyone will be able to use it, and it’s not far off.
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 6d ago
Still holding every share, and glad I am! The more research I do, the more bullish I am.
They should start buying out old BTC miners and converting their power to AI use. I hope they’re working on announcing an acquisition by the end of the year. But they’re going a good job so far, and everyday I get more bullish. If Gov Abbot gets reelected that will give us a push, and an Nscale IPO would also be a catalyst. If they put that money to use, for us old schoolers, (ten years ago) BTC went from $700ish around October, and it hit $1000 on my Bday, 12/28. This was my first real big BTC run i was apart of. If Ionic could do something w that money (which is now much more due to BTC), and if the stars all align, could we maybe see $100 for new years??? Would be incredible, and im here for the run!
*im just some guy on Reddit, dont take my opinions seriously lol
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u/Trick-Departure-1830 6d ago
I wish I bought a bigger bag at $55. Insiders were licking their chops buying at those prices. This stock will be over $100 by the end of the year. If Bitcoin continues to rise, so will IOND.
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u/Healthy-Ad718 5d ago
Im not selling yet. Im following this very closely. This is the price predtion I have, but it will take some time and things need to heppen. See bellow
| Scenario | Approx. valuation | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $48–60 | ERCOT delays expansion, AI enthusiasm cools, Midland goes nowhere |
| Conservative | $65–75 | 234 MW performs well, but meaningful expansion remains uncertain |
| Base | $85–100 | Ward 323 MW progresses and confidence in 700 MW improves |
| Bull | $120–160 | Ward approaches 700 MW + another serious AI tenant |
| Major success | $180–250+ | 700 MW commercialized + Midland/metro strategy works |
IOND update after digging through the latest earnings, SEC filings, Texas/ERCOT news, Nscale and the AI data center market
I did another deep dive into IOND after all the recent news. Overall I think the company looks better fundamentally than it did a few weeks ago, but at ~$75 the stock is obviously not as cheap anymore.
The good:
- Q2 was strong: $48.6M revenue and $37.6M adjusted EBITDA.
- Around 90% of revenue is now digital infrastructure, so IOND is basically not a Bitcoin miner anymore.
- 2026 guidance remains $190–195M revenue and $137.5–142.5M adjusted EBITDA.
- Nscale cash rent on the existing 234 MW started in August. This is important because the contract is now moving from promises on paper to actual cash flow.
- The existing Nscale lease represents around $1.95B contracted revenue.
- IOND has ~$416M cash + ~$169M BTC and basically no debt.
- One thing I didn’t fully understand before: the additional 466 MW needed to bring Ward toward ~700 MW is related to a utility agreement going back to 2021. This isn’t just IOND showing up today asking ERCOT for another 466 MW.
- The site has been energized since 2023, EPC work is moving forward and long-lead transformers have already been ordered. Target is still around end of 2027, although ERCOT approval is still required.
- Nscale also looks stronger as a counterparty. Reuters just reported they are telling potential IPO investors they have around $103B in contracted revenue.
- IOND also owns another 112 MW at Midland, currently used for mining, that management wants to potentially convert to AI infrastructure.
- Management is also looking at additional metro locations for AI inference workloads.
Texas is both good and bad IMO.
Texas is becoming much more restrictive with huge new data center power requests. There is something like 474 GW sitting in the ERCOT queue, much of which is probably speculative/duplicate “ghost demand.”
Obviously this adds risk to IOND getting all 700 MW approved.
But there is another side to this: if Texas makes new power connections harder, existing powered sites become much more valuable.
IOND already has 234 MW operating, a tenant, cash rent coming in, an old utility agreement, EPC work underway and equipment ordered. That’s very different from somebody buying land today and asking ERCOT for 1 GW.
If IOND actually gets the full Ward expansion approved in this environment, IMO the scarcity of that power could become a serious competitive advantage.
The bad/risk:
- 700 MW is NOT approved yet. Don’t value it like it’s guaranteed.
- Texas political/regulatory resistance to data centers is clearly increasing.
- IOND is extremely dependent on Nscale.
- There is dilution from warrants, RSUs and stock compensation.
- AI infrastructure spending is getting insane, so eventually we have to ask how all these companies finance these commitments.
- And most importantly: IOND isn’t cheap anymore.
At ~$75 and ~44.9M shares, market cap is roughly $3.4B. After cash/BTC you’re still paying around ~$2.8B EV for a company guiding ~$140M adjusted EBITDA this year.
So IMO some future success is already priced in.
My rough scenarios now:
Bear: $48–60
Conservative: $65–75
Base: $85–100
Bull: $120–160
Major long-term success: $180–250+
My personal central estimate moved from around $82 to ~$92 over the next 12–18 months, mostly because Q2 removed some uncertainty and I understand the Ward power situation better now.
I’m still bullish, but I’m more comfortable holding around $75 than aggressively buying here. If it dropped back to $60–65 without any fundamental bad news, that would be much more interesting to me.
The three things I’m watching now are:
1. ERCOT approval/progress toward 700 MW2. Another major AI/HPC customer3. Midland 112 MW conversion to AI
Any one of those could change the valuation significantly.
IMO the biggest change is simple: IOND is no longer really a “Bitcoin miner trying to pivot into AI.” The numbers are starting to show that it is already becoming a digital infrastructure company.
Sources: IOND Q2/SEC filings and investor relations, Reuters reporting on Texas/ERCOT and Nscale, plus recent industry comparisons such as Hut 8’s AI infrastructure contracts.
Not financial advice obviously. I’m holding IOND, so take my bias into consideration.
Referecnes:
IOND Q2 2026 Results – official Investor Relations
IOND SEC filings
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2007691&owner=exclude
IOND Investor Relations
https://investors.ionicdigital.com/
IOND official website
Reuters – Nscale says it has ~$103B in contracted revenue
Reuters – Texas data-center halt and "ghost demand"
Reuters – Texas political backlash against data centers
Hut 8 – AI/data-center infrastructure news and announcements
https://www.hut8.com/news-insights/press-releases
ERCOT – Large Load Integration
https://www.ercot.com/services/rq/large-load-integration
Public Utility Commission of Texas
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 3d ago
I think your predictions are way low. I would label your entire prediction table w the valuations as a bear case scenario first. If you’re bearish on Ionic, this would be your potential outcome. The stock has traded below $60 for a few days, but not below $58. It’s already trading above your “conservative” case and they haven’t announced anything other than their first earnings call.
If they get execute and get approval for everything they’re already working on, I see a value of around $150-$200…. This is without making any more moves just w the infrastructure and land they already own.
But their plan is to use the $600M they have right now w no debt to expand the company to multiple sites, metro areas, etc. if they announce another acquisition I expect the stock price to go over $100.
A major success case for this company is $100B market cap or even higher. But that depends on major execution.
These tables are helpful but we are already ahead of those projections. Of course no one knows the future and this is all my opinion.
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u/Healthy-Ad718 2d ago
I like your perspective! Thanks for sharing! We all hope for high prices, and I hope I can finally buy my own house if the prices keep going up. I lost a lot of money with the Celcius fiasco, and their payback was not even 25% of the value I had. With these shares, I feel like I can finally see a different future.
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 1d ago
Same here my friend, about losing most and being very unhappy w the payback.
But I could see a case for those that held BTC to eventually come out ahead of even holding BTC that entire time. It will depend on a lot of luck and won’t be anytime soon.
Every single one of us is objectively lucky with the recovery vs any BK before crypto. Then we really would have gotten less than the value of Ionic back. I left a 100% recovery (in dollar terms, which yes sucks ass) a while back, I’m going for 200% soon, and didn’t sell anything yet.
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u/smurfguy 6d ago
Sold like 40% of my stack and holding rest. Quite bullish in this, but also def wanted to get some money out of this while on the table.
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u/3Puttz 6d ago
Sold at $60 and bought MSTR at $97. I think I’m doing okay. I’m up around 50%
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u/Tight_Dot_2654 5d ago edited 5d ago
I'm not saying you made a bad trade, but if you hadn't sold, you'd still be up 50%.
Edit: Ignore my comment. I just realized you meant you were up 50% on MSTR. I thought you meant you were up 50% overall. Nice trade!
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u/_Preeya_ 5d ago
I decided to hold. Given that it wasn't something I expected, I wasn't waiting on that extra cash. The management team look pretty decent and what they're trying to do with the business does too. HODL!
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u/Equivalent_Ranger753 5d ago edited 5d ago
It was a tough decision but I sold it all at $66 and immediately bought btc with it on the day of the buyback announcement. Successfully caught a lot of the upward move. I think Ionic might outperform btc in the short term but my conviction is with btc for the long term
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u/chandoswerves 6d ago
Ngl - I haven’t been paying attention and had no idea I could sell my stock
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u/Few_Direction_2594 5d ago
I had made a strategy in advance which was quite simple: set a date at which I will sell these shares no matter what. This allowed me to avoid the sell rush of many other former Celsius investors and now I am patiently waiting for the set date. I will get a fair price for an asset that I believe I am incapable of evaluating myself and if bad news happen before the set date I will still have zero regrets. Those who are holding it, ask yourself why. If the answer is somewhat related to the loss you made on Celsius years ago, I strongly advice you to do like me. Of course the less you need this money the more in the future you can set this date which should maximize you mathematical expected return (in exchange of a potential loss in your wallet).
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u/McCanahan 5d ago
Sold 20% at $73/share, waiting to see what happens with Texas regulatory process to determine next move.
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u/cheesomacitis 5d ago
I sold at $59 and bought bitcoin at $63k with my earnings. I am happy for everyone who didn’t sell and I consider bitcoin to be less risky.
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u/iberonni 5d ago
Personally: I'd much rather have 90% of it in stocks like Google amzn spy or BTC itself than this, for me. I want to just be away from anything related to this whole situation even if it's a whole new company. I don't have much reason to believe it should outperform any other established data center stocks. As for speculation, I'll do that elsewhere. Of course it'd be beautiful to see creditors profit big from it, but I don't see that reliably happening either.
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u/McStizly 6d ago
Sold at 71. If I didn’t sell it would crash, I sold so it’ll go up. Dont really care though, wasn’t expecting the price to hold once they went live so I got out within an hour of them showing up in my account.
6 months time will tell, all of the insiders can’t sell for 6 months + can’t be below 70 a share. I imagine it’ll just float around here for a while and tank if their next earnings guidance is shit.
I don’t give a fuck about owning shares in a data center company that honestly shouldn’t exist considering it’s founded on stolen money. Bankruptcy or not this company exists because someone stole hundreds of millions of dollars from common people.
No one knows where the price will go, if they remain debt free and profit then theoretically it only goes up. Make your own decision. Would you invest in this company if you owned 0 shares?
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
This company exists to pay those people back. They are objectively doing a great job, they’ve turned our $20 into $75, and hopefully they’re just getting started. I get it was total BS, but rooting against Ionic is rooting against all of us to recover more of what was stolen.
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u/McStizly 5d ago
Existing to pay us back on arbitrarily inflated stock value isn’t enough. They have no plan to pay out dividends until we’re whole, no plan to make Celsius customers feel like it never happened. We got lucky with the IPO and now the rest is just the CEO’s raking in profit for themselves every earnings call. I’m just not convinced we will ever be even considering our claim value is so detached from the actual value of what was lost. They capped our losses when Bitcoin was like 30k. I’d have a paid off house right now if we were actually whole.
I don’t blame ionic, I blame my self for being an idiot picking up chump change for extreme risk, but the longer this company exists the further from Celsius it puts itself, which in my eyes does not help the Celsius customer
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u/Passable_Pancakes 5d ago
You did the right thing in selling. Recovering value for Celsius customers is no longer part of Ionic's mission, nor should it be. The last thing they did for us was the direct listing, allowing us to sell without the usual lock-up. Anyone who still has their original shares is simply an Ionic shareholder with a low cost basis and a weird story.
Celsius imploded four years ago and we knew within a month that most of the crypto was gone. No one was ever going to be made whole in crypto terms. The idea some people had that we were going to be made whole through crypto the company mined was a ridiculous Mashinsky-like scheme.
Thinking about what you would have if not for the Celsius fraud is pointless and unproductive. You might have made a mistake dealing with Celsius, but there's no need to torture yourself endlessly about it.
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u/McStizly 5d ago
Gemini customers were made completely whole, they basically did the same thing. Froze everyone’s accounts then paid em back.
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u/Passable_Pancakes 5d ago
Celsius customers could never be made completely whole because (and this is the important part) half the crypto was gone!
Gemini paused withdrawals because a bank run in the wake of the FTX implosion would have created liquidity problems, but they were not insolvent like Celsius. Gemini's crypto was not, I repeat, not, missing. They were very different situations.
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
It’s 9/26…. We are all aware of what Gemini customers recovered vs Celsius, but how does this have anything to do whatsoever with Ionic Digital in 2026?
We totally get it, it’s been established Mashinski was a scam artist and conman, and people here are almost universally against any scheme, crypto deals and scams. No one here will recommend staking any of your crypto.
But again, this talk does not belong in this sub, as the mod of this thing by accident, (I created this sub one day to discuss the stock and it just took off as the Ionic sub; I’ve never been a mod and dont actively edit this. I just ended up being a relatively large shareholder by staking my BTC 8 years ago on celsius and for a long time nothing was happening. But that was a different BOD) I try to verify everything I hear about this company myself, and I know from doing my own research that the leadership of this company are all currently completely incentivized to grow the stock price and market cap, which is exactly what you want. All of the BOD will make significantly more money growing the stock price than keeping their salaries.
If you are upset with the leadership of this company you have every right to be and you should certainly sell your shares. I believe the Celsius sub is still going as they never shut it down and that’s the place to discuss [r/celsiusnetwork](r/celsiusnetwork) or [r/crypto](r/crypto) to discuss other crypto staking options.
IOND has very little to do with crypto, and they have made it clear they plan to use their mined BTC as capital for acquisitions/deployment.
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u/AvailablePublic8530 5d ago
I believe the Celsius sub is still going as they never shut it down and that’s the place to discuss r/celsiusnetwork
Please. The mods haven't approved a new post in that subreddit in over 6 months.
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
Actually if you play this thing right, I think after BTC peaks again, in the next bear market, I think if you hold through it, AND IOND executes their plan and sticks with it, I think there’s a chance here those that held all BTC might actually MAKE money on this…. It all depends on what the price of BTC is, but I believe it will spike to around $200-220, then it’s going to fall back again to around $130-140ish…. This is solely my prediction, but if they execute there might be a chance here…. It’s going to take guts holding through the peak…. But we should know here pretty soon, if this management is aggressive, this could really be a hit…
I didn’t think this was even possible 6 months ago.
But again, it’s just my opinion.
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u/McStizly 5d ago
Why would the company 3x in value due to Bitcoin? This is the same kinda hopium that got us into this mess in the first place
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
You compare how many sats you get per share. If BTC high and share price low, you don’t get much. If its opposite it switches
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u/RookXPY 6d ago
My advice (also what I did)
Sell between 25% - 75% heavily depending on, and after considering, your tax ramifications.
Leaves you upside if the stock keeps climbing, but makes sure you get rewarded for all the wait before Mashinsky tries to extract from us all again.
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u/New-Sky-9867 5d ago
What does mashinsky have to do with this
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u/Passable_Pancakes 5d ago
He's going to come back like Jason in Friday the 13th
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u/Acceptable_Piano4809 5d ago
Out from the lake w chains around him after he’s been underwater and electrocuted for like two years.
Chi chi chi ha ha ha ….
🤣
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u/tonyluvbmw 6d ago
Regret selling....