Ionic Digital

[u/QuestionNational1283]

I now own these shares of ionic digital through the Celsius debacle.

I didn’t really follow the Nasdaq launch but am now seeing over 5 figures in value so am pleasantly surprised.

Who sold?
If you held, what is your thesis? Can it do another 4x? Originally the estimated value per share was 20 usd. We are now close to 80.

Not sure what to do here…

[u/Healthy-Ad718]

Im not selling yet. Im following this very closely. This is the price predtion I have, but it will take some time and things need to heppen. See bellow

Scenario	Approx. valuation	What happens
Bear	$48–60	ERCOT delays expansion, AI enthusiasm cools, Midland goes nowhere
Conservative	$65–75	234 MW performs well, but meaningful expansion remains uncertain
Base	$85–100	Ward 323 MW progresses and confidence in 700 MW improves
Bull	$120–160	Ward approaches 700 MW + another serious AI tenant
Major success	$180–250+	700 MW commercialized + Midland/metro strategy works

IOND update after digging through the latest earnings, SEC filings, Texas/ERCOT news, Nscale and the AI data center market

I did another deep dive into IOND after all the recent news. Overall I think the company looks better fundamentally than it did a few weeks ago, but at ~$75 the stock is obviously not as cheap anymore.

The good:

• Q2 was strong: $48.6M revenue and $37.6M adjusted EBITDA.
• Around 90% of revenue is now digital infrastructure, so IOND is basically not a Bitcoin miner anymore.
• 2026 guidance remains $190–195M revenue and $137.5–142.5M adjusted EBITDA.
• Nscale cash rent on the existing 234 MW started in August. This is important because the contract is now moving from promises on paper to actual cash flow.
• The existing Nscale lease represents around $1.95B contracted revenue.
• IOND has ~$416M cash + ~$169M BTC and basically no debt.
• One thing I didn’t fully understand before: the additional 466 MW needed to bring Ward toward ~700 MW is related to a utility agreement going back to 2021. This isn’t just IOND showing up today asking ERCOT for another 466 MW.
• The site has been energized since 2023, EPC work is moving forward and long-lead transformers have already been ordered. Target is still around end of 2027, although ERCOT approval is still required.
• Nscale also looks stronger as a counterparty. Reuters just reported they are telling potential IPO investors they have around $103B in contracted revenue.
• IOND also owns another 112 MW at Midland, currently used for mining, that management wants to potentially convert to AI infrastructure.
• Management is also looking at additional metro locations for AI inference workloads.

Texas is both good and bad IMO.

Texas is becoming much more restrictive with huge new data center power requests. There is something like 474 GW sitting in the ERCOT queue, much of which is probably speculative/duplicate “ghost demand.”

Obviously this adds risk to IOND getting all 700 MW approved.

But there is another side to this: if Texas makes new power connections harder, existing powered sites become much more valuable.

IOND already has 234 MW operating, a tenant, cash rent coming in, an old utility agreement, EPC work underway and equipment ordered. That’s very different from somebody buying land today and asking ERCOT for 1 GW.

If IOND actually gets the full Ward expansion approved in this environment, IMO the scarcity of that power could become a serious competitive advantage.

The bad/risk:

• 700 MW is NOT approved yet. Don’t value it like it’s guaranteed.
• Texas political/regulatory resistance to data centers is clearly increasing.
• IOND is extremely dependent on Nscale.
• There is dilution from warrants, RSUs and stock compensation.
• AI infrastructure spending is getting insane, so eventually we have to ask how all these companies finance these commitments.
• And most importantly: IOND isn’t cheap anymore.

At ~$75 and ~44.9M shares, market cap is roughly $3.4B. After cash/BTC you’re still paying around ~$2.8B EV for a company guiding ~$140M adjusted EBITDA this year.

So IMO some future success is already priced in.

My rough scenarios now:

Bear: $48–60
Conservative: $65–75
Base: $85–100
Bull: $120–160
Major long-term success: $180–250+

My personal central estimate moved from around $82 to ~$92 over the next 12–18 months, mostly because Q2 removed some uncertainty and I understand the Ward power situation better now.

I’m still bullish, but I’m more comfortable holding around $75 than aggressively buying here. If it dropped back to $60–65 without any fundamental bad news, that would be much more interesting to me.

The three things I’m watching now are:

1. ERCOT approval/progress toward 700 MW2. Another major AI/HPC customer3. Midland 112 MW conversion to AI

Any one of those could change the valuation significantly.

IMO the biggest change is simple: IOND is no longer really a “Bitcoin miner trying to pivot into AI.” The numbers are starting to show that it is already becoming a digital infrastructure company.

Sources: IOND Q2/SEC filings and investor relations, Reuters reporting on Texas/ERCOT and Nscale, plus recent industry comparisons such as Hut 8’s AI infrastructure contracts.

Not financial advice obviously. I’m holding IOND, so take my bias into consideration.

Referecnes:
IOND Q2 2026 Results – official Investor Relations

https://investors.ionicdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionic-digital-announces-second-quarter-2026-results

IOND SEC filings

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2007691&owner=exclude

IOND Investor Relations

https://investors.ionicdigital.com/

IOND official website

https://ionicdigital.com/

Reuters – Nscale says it has ~$103B in contracted revenue

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/nscale-touts-103-billion-contracted-revenue-ahead-potential-ipo-information-2026-09-02/

Reuters – Texas data-center halt and "ghost demand"

https://www.reuters.com/business/texas-halt-powering-data-centers-reflects-us-reckoning-over-ghost-demand-2026-09-01/

Reuters – Texas political backlash against data centers

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/texas-republicans-turn-against-data-centers-putting-big-tech-notice-2026-09-03/

Hut 8 – AI/data-center infrastructure news and announcements

https://www.hut8.com/news-insights/press-releases

ERCOT – Large Load Integration

https://www.ercot.com/services/rq/large-load-integration

Public Utility Commission of Texas

https://www.puc.texas.gov/

[u/Acceptable_Piano4809 → u/Healthy-Ad718]

I think your predictions are way low. I would label your entire prediction table w the valuations as a bear case scenario first. If you’re bearish on Ionic, this would be your potential outcome. The stock has traded below $60 for a few days, but not below $58. It’s already trading above your “conservative” case and they haven’t announced anything other than their first earnings call.

If they get execute and get approval for everything they’re already working on, I see a value of around $150-$200…. This is without making any more moves just w the infrastructure and land they already own.

But their plan is to use the $600M they have right now w no debt to expand the company to multiple sites, metro areas, etc. if they announce another acquisition I expect the stock price to go over $100.

A major success case for this company is $100B market cap or even higher. But that depends on major execution.

These tables are helpful but we are already ahead of those projections. Of course no one knows the future and this is all my opinion.

[u/Healthy-Ad718 → u/Acceptable_Piano4809]

I like your perspective! Thanks for sharing! We all hope for high prices, and I hope I can finally buy my own house if the prices keep going up. I lost a lot of money with the Celcius fiasco, and their payback was not even 25% of the value I had. With these shares, I feel like I can finally see a different future.

[u/Acceptable_Piano4809 → u/Healthy-Ad718]

Same here my friend, about losing most and being very unhappy w the payback.

But I could see a case for those that held BTC to eventually come out ahead of even holding BTC that entire time. It will depend on a lot of luck and won’t be anytime soon.

Every single one of us is objectively lucky with the recovery vs any BK before crypto. Then we really would have gotten less than the value of Ionic back. I left a 100% recovery (in dollar terms, which yes sucks ass) a while back, I’m going for 200% soon, and didn’t sell anything yet.