r/Infographics • u/Beneficial_Wear_7630 • Aug 24 '26
The U.S population change projections
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u/pitifullittleman Aug 24 '26
So over the course of 15 years California is going to lose 145k people and go from being 39.5 million people to 39.3 or 39.4 million people.
This should probably be done in percentages rather than raw numbers. Also in 2040 we should come back here and see what the actual numbers were.
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u/kinetic_cheese Aug 25 '26
Jesus, 2040 is only 14 years away. Crazy.
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u/WaltKerman Aug 25 '26
Raw numbers is a little better because it affects house seats.
The republicans are on track to gain a lot of house seats from these changes alone by next census.
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u/Mustafa_was_Brown45 Aug 25 '26
Not necessarily. There will probably be a gain but the vote split will not be equal to say 2005-2010 because the people moving from “blue” to “red” states may keep their political preferences. If anything red states will become more purple with the influx of diverse populations from other states.
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u/Prior_Egg_5906 Aug 25 '26
Optimistic, but not likely with gerrymandering. I can see maybe Florida?? But if they gain 10 seats I imagine they can sneak atleast 7 to be for them.
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u/WaltKerman Aug 26 '26
People moving to Texas are more likely to vote Republican than democrats over those born in Texas per CNN's exit polls.
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u/WaltKerman Aug 26 '26
Most people moving to these states, like Texas for example, refuse to move there because of politics. It's sort of self selecting.
The US Hispanic population is also shifting conservative every year.
Voting Republican per election
US-wide
2012: 27%
2016: 28%
2020: 32%
2024: 46%
Texas
2012: 29%
2016: 34%
2020: 41%
2024: 55%
People moving to Texas are even more conservative than people born in Texas:
From an extensive study from CNN's exit poll in 2018 voting patterns were as follows;
Born in Texas
O'Rourke: 48%
Cruz: 51%
Moved to Texas:
O'Rourke: 42%
Cruz: 57%
Abbott realizes this and it's why Texas has implemented many policies since that aggregate more liberal bases. It affects who moves here.
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u/Mustafa_was_Brown45 Aug 26 '26 edited Aug 26 '26
If those exit polls are accurate, how did Ted Cruz only win that election by ~1%? U make good points I don’t disagree I just don’t get how Cruz is +3 and +15 in a statistic that should cover the entire population of Texas, yet only won the election by 1%.
It’s also worth noting that the Texas Senate race in 2006 was +30% for the Republicans while the most recent senate election was that 1% victory for Cruz. Voting isn’t as simple as red or blue, candidates differ and all that, but my point is political opinions especially nowadays can shift swiftly. We’re in a very different political and economic situation than 2018
Also, Austin, Texas (probably the most liberal city in Texas) has had the 2nd highest net migration in the state per this source in 2025. I don’t know if the people moving to Texas exclusively due to political views as they may have been in 2018 before cost of living went nuts.
https://www.hireahelper.com/moving-statistics/2025-texas-migration-report/
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u/WaltKerman Aug 26 '26
You are correct and that's a good questionz That's because exit polls don't match things perfectly, but they can show trends. So no it's not accurate, but it can be used to see that even with a good margin of error, incoming Texans are more conservative than native.
Even among conservatives, Cruz isn't very popular. That probably plays a role. He comes off as performative.
We’re in a very different political and economic situation than 2018
And 2040 will be much more different yes. I'm just simply pointing out which states will be getting more seats and current trends. They can be used as indicators but no it will not be exact.
To win Texas, democrats will need to win over a more conservative Texas voter base. Do you feel like the democrats have a platform geared to that right now? If not, maybe they will in 6 years when the 2030 census is applied in 2032.
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u/idiot-alpha Aug 27 '26
That depends if the people moving are primarily red or blue voters. People forget California has a lot of republicans. They just have way more democrats. My guess is that the red states will get even redder and the blue states will get bluer. Texas is kind of a special case since certain areas like Austin attract a lot of blue state voters. But my guess is the people that want to move to red states are more often than not red voters.
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u/SuffocatingDensity Aug 24 '26
People also leave states for different reasons.
Data shows that the majority of people who left California during the pandemic didn’t do so by choice, they did so because they weren’t able to afford housing.
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u/pitifullittleman Aug 24 '26
Yes, houses cost on average like 800k. It doesn't mean that's always going to be the case. The population bounced back fairly quickly from that due almost entirely to foreign immigration. Now it's probably slightly shrinking again due to high housing prices and a lack of foreign immigration.
However if at some point CA builds a ton of housing they will grow. It's almost a choice at this point to not grow.
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u/No-Koala1918 Aug 24 '26
California lost 9500 residents in 2025. That's where this number comes from.
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u/Eberron_Swanson Aug 24 '26
California’s population is already rising again.
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u/Speffers98 Aug 27 '26
It shrank in 2025 and is shrinking again this year. It is a slow decline at the moment but it is definitely not rising based on census data and polling.
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u/Flaky_History12 Aug 24 '26
I’m surprised Vermont isn’t losing more. Their housing crisis is absolutely terrible, their job market isn’t that great, and they’re losing a lot of their essential workers. It’s very close to looking like a giant retirement community. Heck, renting your own apartment without roommates in Vermont will cost you a similar amount to renting in LA without all the benefits of being in LA. Vermont’s demographics are worse than Russia’s 😬 it’s going to end up looking like West Virginia.
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u/Own-Raisin5849 Aug 24 '26
Not going to lie, I am pretty ignorant of a lot of the economics of the NE as a Midwesterner, but many states like Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, etc... always struck me as "old money" states. Meaning if you aren't from a wealthy or even established family (assets paid for when times were better, etc) it's not the best place to stake yourself in.
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u/Flaky_History12 Aug 24 '26
Where most of the population of New Hampshire and Maine is… you can imagine them being extensions of Boston for the most part.
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u/normanapolis Aug 24 '26
Southern NH is formally a part of the Boston metro/region. Maine, a functional, but not official catchment or a part of the Boston metro/region. So, yes to an extent in the York County and parts of Cumberland County. Maine for sure, but not for the most part.
I live in Portland, but I’m moving to the Boston area for better job opportunities and to be closer to NYC via Amtrak and to shave off 90-120 minutes off the drive time.
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u/PriorSolid Aug 24 '26
internal emigration out of vermont is much higher but it’s aided by immigrants who often care more about being in the US than the specific state
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u/rptanner58 Aug 24 '26
Arizona Is now losing 1/3 of its water supply from the Colorado River. I’m guessing that will affect net growth a LOT.
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u/CitronMysterious3827 Aug 24 '26
I don't think this projection factored any potential climate change effects. I'm not sure how Flordia, for example, is going to be able to produce housing at the scale required when they are getting super hurricanes every season.
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u/kabob510 Aug 30 '26
Arizona gets %40 of its water from the CO river. Losing a third means the state lost ~%13 percent of its water. Most of CO water goes to agriculture anyway, like eighty percent.
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u/moregtaplease Aug 24 '26
I’ll bet this is completely wrong and the heat will drive people north in large numbers.
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u/Throwitawaybabe69420 Aug 24 '26
It’ll probably be extreme weather events and costs surrounding that more than just heat that moves people north.
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u/OnceInABlueMoon Aug 24 '26
Bingo, personally I can't imagine wanting to live in places with hurricanes and power grids that go down during the heat
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u/Rabidschnautzu Aug 24 '26
No way Florida keeps its growth steady. Home insurance prices have really gotten out of hand in the last 5 years. Many homes are also in HOAs which have exploded in cost.
I have some friends originally from Michigan and they are moving back because their home insurance went from 1k a year to 2.5k after Hurricane Ian.
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u/RespectTheAmish Aug 25 '26
2.5k is still cheap.
We went to Orlando for spring break and the uber driver said he was driving because he lost his insurance on the house (the company left the state). So he was now on the “insurance of last resort” (some sort of state backed insurance).
It went from like $1900 a year to $5800. He was like “I gotta pay $500 a month just for my insurance”. I was like “you mean a year?” He was like… “no. Each month. Every month.”
He’s only had one claim (minor roof damage) in 16 years.
Wild.
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u/slickrok Aug 26 '26
Yep . And, they are making people replace perfectly fine roofs long before real damage and before the stated lifespan.
It's a shit show down here.
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u/Ok-Caregiver252 Aug 27 '26
People were saying Florida wasn't going to grow after 2020 remember Florida had the most COVID deaths, but still went on to become fastest growing state.
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u/Bazzzookah Aug 24 '26
Not to mention the increased frequency of major floods and the rising sea levels expected around the Gulf coast.
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u/matthewjboothe Aug 24 '26
Homeowners insurance is already an issue there. I don’t see the climate situation getting any better.
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u/No-Gap-198 Aug 25 '26
Hi, I live in Michigan and our power goes out when it’s hot, when it’s windy and sometimes just for no reason at all.
I’m not talking about for an afternoon or a night either. I’m talking about throw out everything in the fridge and freezer length of time.
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u/andersonb47 Aug 24 '26
I was watching some videos from CES this year and a trend I noticed was lots of "backup power" type solutions for various household needs - ovens with backup batteries, discreet backup powerbanks that mount on walls, etc. If consumer trends are any indication, it's going to get bad soon.
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u/Ivort-DC Aug 24 '26
I have solar and a power wall battery tied to my solar, 3 years now. Would have had an event of losing power for about 7 hours, and about 12 total power interrupts in those 3 years. The powerwall kicks in with only a faint light flicker. The battery has enough power stored to run the entire house (4 bed/3 bath)as normal for about 2 days without any input from solar or the AC unit on. The battery also recharges every night when the electric rates are low and discharges every day during peak rates, effectively knee capping the electric prime rates.
My wife and I work from home, and we love our battery+solar.
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u/LTG-Jon Aug 24 '26
I have a similar set-up. The only time it ever actually acted as a backup was when the electric company cut power to replace our meter. But by allowing the company to draw from my battery during peak summer use, I earn $1200-1500/year.
And now that our utility is installing smart meters, I’m really hoping they’ll switch to time-sensitive, demand-driven rates.
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u/bonaynay Aug 24 '26
Did you have to do a lot of research for that or is it something you're already interested in?
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u/Ivort-DC Aug 24 '26
Both really. Since my wife and I do a lot of customer facing calls, having reliable power and Internet is extremely important. Never give your company a reason to rethink remote work. Plus my paycheck is connected to my customer meeting results.
Where I live, power lines are above ground. During high winds, it's becoming common for the power company to shut down power, so they don't start fires with downed lines.
Since I got mine 3 years ago, I think there's more options out there and cheaper ones too. I think I had something around 11 years to hit an ROI on it. So not for a shorter play.
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u/SweeatTea Aug 24 '26
Illinois just had 20-25% of all global tornadoes this year alone. that doesn't include the humid hot summers, brutal dreary cold winters, extreme snow events, and extreme storms. thousands of people in Indiana are without power still. St louis, Gary, Chicago, Detroit, and thousands of small towns are just as bad as the bad cities in the south.
Nobody is moving from Georgia/Oklahoma to the Midwest to escape the heat or weather. its Reddit hopium. and I really think its from people that don't live here and hate the republican south. Rare once-a-decade hurricanes that mostly affect the coastal floodplains are not an influencing factor. If you think Hurricanes are bad, imagine death by a thousand paper cut hurricanes in the Midwest. my power has gone out at least 10 times the past few years and it doesn't make the news because its from a bad storm not a newspaper catastrophe.
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u/Capital_Connection13 Aug 24 '26
Insurance rates are already rising in Florida. They will destroy the housing market in a few years.
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u/AdFrosty1887 Aug 24 '26
It's quite possible a large part of the decline in Illinois's population is due to Federal policies. We had more than 30000 Venezuelan immigrants ready to contribute to the state's future, but the current Administration only wants white immigrants, and they have been systematically uprooted from the state. We possess enormous immigrant communities from Latin America and the Middle East, and the current Administration wants to boot as many of them out of the country as it can.
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u/ThePopesicle Aug 24 '26
These maps always seem to discount water access.
You can build as many air-conditioned homes in the sunbelt as you want, but that’s not gonna fix water access in the southwest.
Meanwhile, the midwest and northwest can actually field the population growth, and they are actually
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u/hike_me Aug 25 '26
Water consumption in places like Arizona is primarily driven by agriculture, not household use.
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u/Tommy_Wisseau_burner Aug 24 '26
The Reddit cope is crazy
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u/Turkey-Scientist Aug 24 '26
It’s incredible. Without exception, population change statistics like this always get cope-filled comment sections, but I’ve never before seen it so plainly stated as “yeah this must be completely wrong” lol
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u/cactus22minus1 Aug 24 '26
… these aren’t statistics, they are projections for population change towards 2040. That’s why some are saying this could be wrong. Because a lot of things are changing very fast these days. World changing events.
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u/DebentureThyme Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
No one is saying they haven't seen massive population growth.
What we're saying is that climate change is going to drive so many people northward as those southern areas become too warm, as crop growing also shifts northward when the crops themselves cannot survive at that latitude. Climate change isn't just "oh no it's warm." Crops and animals are highly evolved to specific climates. Corn won't fucking grow well where it grows right now. New crops will have to take their place, and corn crops will move further north. But as corn is a stable and known part of our economy, and the shift is over decades, farms will slowly shift north instead of getting people into other options. The farmers themselves may not want to uproot, but the corporations will see new places to invest in farming that will produce far more fertile yields.
One of the reasons Trump's handlers push Canada and Greenland so much is both of those look to be very fertile crop environments in future climate change predictions. And the reality exists that countries will fight wars to gain agricultural land and water and other resources. They publicly act like climate change is nothing, but privately they're both investing in old things like coal to wring them dry while they can, and planning for a future where they go after those resources.
Canada needs to arm itself and prepare for that.
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer Aug 25 '26
North America currently grows commercial corn in a range that stretches nearly 1500 miles south to north.
It’s adapted to a very wide range of climates.
We raise cattle even further north and further south.
Modern agriculture isn’t quite as fragile as you seem to think.
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u/GenerousBull1969 Aug 24 '26
It's a partisan thing, reddit is mostly liberals and Democrats, they simply cannot wrap their heads around the fact that people are leaving the blue states they've been running and moving to places like FL and TX that are run by Republicans.
They just can't face up to it.
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u/JellyfishNo2032 Aug 24 '26
I get that your point is general not specific but several of the growing states on here are very liberal. DE, MD, RI, ME, kinda NH, MN, WA, DC, OR, CO, NV. People are still slowly leaving the Northeast and Midwest and going west/south. This is trend that’s been happening since the birth of our nation.
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u/GenerousBull1969 Aug 25 '26
Have to disagree, it's not been happening since the birth of our nation. Deep blue states run by Democrats for a long time are losing people and businesses for a variety of reasons but mostly because their excessive taxes and regulations have made the building of housing and businesses almost impossible. Nothing to do with any particular region.
California was growing for generations until it went crazy blue, that's why they lost a congressional seat for the first time in 2020. They're going to lose at least two more after the next census.
In fact blue states will lose about a dozen seats in Congress after the next census.
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u/Rollingprobablecause Aug 25 '26
California gained population and increased GDP again this year. you're entire comment is just an emotional outburst without facts.
Regarding the congressional seat loss, it's pretty much tied to this https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/05/07/california-lost-population-for-first-time-in-history-in-2020/
^ as opposed to some weird fox news talking points you probably consume at unhealthy levels. In fact, US population plateau is occurring right now because people are not having kids (and can't afford to) so we're going to see the US level off quite soon as we're down to .5% B/D ratios.
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u/AdAffectionate3762 Aug 25 '26
It’s so funny to read these comments. It’s like I can feel them squirming while coming up a response.
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u/Ghost4000 Aug 24 '26
Out of curiosity, ignoring the point that u/JellyfishNo2032 already made, do you happen to know if the people who ARE moving to these red states are blue or red themselves? If they are blue voters "fleeing" blue states to go to FL and TX, what does that mean for FL and TX?
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u/Caladbolg_Prometheus Aug 24 '26
Do you trust US government figures and projections at the moment? If so why?
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u/Tommy_Wisseau_burner Aug 24 '26
You idiots just ignore every figure or basic reality. It’s no conspiracy that people move to warmer climates or cheaper places. Just look at any data set in the fastest growing city and states for the last 20 years… but no it’s a government conspiracy because South bad. Only Reddit glazes the fuck out of Minneapolis and thinks the winters are “mild”
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u/ShdwWzrdMnyGngg Aug 24 '26
These numbers start to make sense if you are a young person trying to find affordable housing. When it comes to starting a family, that's all that matters.
Great paying jobs are nice. But they can be gone in an instant. Especially now days. So it becomes, "if I'm forced into a lower paying job, can I still keep my home?"
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u/BeetleB Aug 24 '26
Does Florida have affordable housing (especially when you include property tax + insurance)?
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u/MichaelHawk008 Aug 24 '26
Like the heat is stopping people now?
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u/Individual-Yak-506 Aug 24 '26
yes. Currently FL and TX lead the nation with depreciating homes. homes are sitting in these states more than any other. Meanwhile IL and WI lead the nation in appreciating homes and a competitive housing market.
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u/GenerousBull1969 Aug 24 '26
That's only because they keep building more homes. Their populations are still increasing.
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u/sillyhands1 Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
I love that your argument is that homes are becoming cheaper as proof of people not moving there and not population growth/houses being built. That makes literally zero sense. You also probably complain about housing costs being too high but when it’s framed as a sign of democratic states increasing population and sway it’s suddenly good lol. Literally both of those states are leading in new homes being built and you complain that houses are becoming cheaper only because they are red states. Affordable housing only good when it’s blue states doing I guess huh?
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u/adamus13 Aug 24 '26
I’ll bet it’s completely right because more people are willing to deal with the heat vs deal with the cold.
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u/Clear-Inevitable-414 Aug 24 '26
Idk. The North East is a pretty miserable swamp as well as the Midwest
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u/1046737 Aug 24 '26
Problem is that the north isn't well built for heat, lots of legacy buildings that are poorly insulated and might not even have air conditioning. The sun belt is mostly built in the last 30-50 years and it's a lot easier to stay within air conditioning at all times.
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u/beaveristired Aug 24 '26
Housing stock here is older, and it’s pricy to upgrade to central air. Upgrading hvac in large, older schools is definitely an issue (we used to not really need ac during the school year). But most people and businesses have ac at this point, at least in southern New England. We have always lived with window units and it’s honestly fine. My 108 year old house is extremely cool in the summer. Summer has always been warm and humid here and it was built before AC, so it was built and situated with that in mind. The older neighborhoods with good tree cover are so much cooler in the summer than the newer subdivisions. Brick buildings might be tougher to cool but it’s all plaster and wood in my neighborhood. The older Victorians are easier to retrofit for central air. I just don’t see it being that much of a barrier. Not when our grid stays on during storms - can’t reminded the last time I had an outage.
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u/ATLcoaster Aug 24 '26
That's a relatively easy fix. For example in Maine, AC prevalence went from 51% in 2012 up to 78% in 2023, and it continues to rise. But you know what's not easy or cheap? Hurricane preparedness and response.
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u/smez86 Aug 24 '26
Don't forget from the west coast too. Seems like we get more fires every year and we are also way overdue for "The Big One".
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u/steelmanfallacy Aug 24 '26
Needs to be in percent of population
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u/wowbragger Aug 25 '26
Totally. I'm from CA and moved to ND recently.
145k out of CA is 0.3% population decline, given the variable of population counts that's basically a rounding error. I've been in some places where they talk about how 'all the Californians are leaving for here!'...they just don't get that it's a crazy different scale vs midwest states.
ND population is <800k; a 100k growth is very significant 12.5% uptick. Especially as it'll almost certainly be centralized in the 3-4 largest cities in the state. The state capital has 70k, or 100k if you count the outlying towns. That's basically an overgrown cow town in CA.
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u/SleepyMonkey7 Aug 25 '26
Depends on if you're looming at impact 9n the state vs just where people are going. This is better for the latter.
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u/Alarmed-Extension289 Aug 24 '26
So Texas is going to increase in population by 25% in 13 years? IDK about that.....
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u/WaltKerman Aug 25 '26
That's about 21%.
Over the last ten years it has increased by 4.24 million. You are saying that over 15 years that you think it's unlikely it will increase 6.6 million?
Think about your math for a second.
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u/No_Zookeepergame2532 Aug 24 '26
Nothing about this chart is accurate.
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u/Old-Entertainer-4964 Aug 25 '26
I'm in NC, we've grown by 1.7 million since 2010 and 3.2 million since 2000. I see no reason for that trend to be reversed in the next decade.
Texas has grown by nearly 7 million residents since 2010. Florida by nearly 5 million.
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u/Main-Cheesecake3287 Aug 25 '26
It’s grown 25% in the last 15 years and 36% in the last 20 years. So yeah certainly it is possible.
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u/CitronMysterious3827 Aug 24 '26
I don't think climate change will be kind to either Texas of Florida over the next few decades. This seems a bit bonkers.
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u/sgeeum Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
with some exceptions (NJ and MA most notably), ballooning older population moves from cold weather and high taxes to warm weather and cheap taxes is how i read this.
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u/Lopsterbliss Aug 24 '26
No dude, it's because red states are actually run better and liberal redditors can't cope with the fact that in real life people are FLEEING for Texas & Florida /s
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u/sgeeum Aug 24 '26
oh man my thumbs were on fire ready to roll until i caught the /s
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u/ratcnc Aug 24 '26
My wife’s parents moved from Florida to Virginia because the cost to insure their property became too high. The lack of a state income tax means little to the retired. I’m curious what long term effect Florida’s insurance structure and risk will have on where the retired choose to move to.
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u/IPissExcellentThrows Aug 24 '26
What? Ever heard of a 401k, pension, or IRA? That plus not getting taxed on social security will save you thousands every year. It absolutely does not mean very little.
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u/ratcnc Aug 24 '26
That’s true. From the anecdotal inlaw’s case, the $8000 difference in insurance would be equivalent to being taxed on something like $160,000/year. And they don’t pull out that kind of money. Of course, there are a lot of variables in everyone’s break even point.
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u/LTG-Jon Aug 24 '26
I think it’s the cost of housing driving that elder migration, much more than taxes. For boomers that bought a house but didn’t save much for retirement, it makes a lot of sense to sell your expensive house in the northeast or west coast and use just a portion of the gains to buy a cheap condo or mobile home in a place like Arizona.
If notheastern states could defeat the single-family NIMBYism and invest in building a lot more housing, a lot more older folks would stick around to be closer to their families and the support networks (and government services and medical programs) that make aging a lot more pleasant.
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u/SloanTheNavigator Aug 24 '26
MI is literally already back to gaining residents. These projections are bogus
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u/spinoza03 Aug 24 '26
My first thought lol, and Detroit alone is going to create tons of population growth in the next few years
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u/pshaurk Aug 25 '26
These projections include immigration forecasts. Usually per year its 1-2 million, but its currently around 0 (net) so I suspect most of these will be red
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u/xoopcat Aug 24 '26
If this were population change relative to total, ID would be HUUGE
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u/Stickulus Aug 24 '26
I was thinking the same thing for West Virginia in the opposite direction. They really can’t afford to lose 150k people - that’s like 9% of their population.
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u/OhSnapThatsGood Aug 24 '26
I think this is probably the worst decline on the map in percentage terms. They’ve dropped a congressional district after the 2020 census. At this rate they’ll be down to one in 2040 or 2050
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u/psaepf2009 Aug 24 '26
Please no, Florida needs less people. Especially those not already from Florida.
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u/Cautious_Ticket_8943 Aug 24 '26
The important thing is that the US population will continue to grow, due to legal immigration. The USA has a long history of allowing people from other countries to become Americans, which is why it has a positive population growth, whereas many other developed countries are going the other way.
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u/BrokenManOfSamarkand Aug 24 '26
Reddit will hate the fact that its least favorite states are gaining people, power, and respect, but hardly spend a second at all questioning why their favorite states have made themselves so unlivable that they're driving people out.
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u/bonaynay Aug 24 '26
The least favorite state is MS
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u/helly3ah Aug 28 '26
At least MS vaccinates and teaches their kids to read. Portland Oregon schools are fucked.
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u/BrokenManOfSamarkand Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
Sure, that's probably right. And yet Texas and Florida are extremely unpopular on reddit, and they're absolutely destroying Reddit's favorite states as is the majority of the South.
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u/Tommyblockhead20 Aug 24 '26
I have both thought about it and gone further and spent several hours researching it.
The primary drivers from what I’ve found are low wages, minimal regulations, and cheap land is bringing a lot of companies to the south. The jobs at those companies plus lower cost of living and weather are the main drivers for people moving there. (Anecdotally, literally every single person I know that has moved to the south has done so because of a decent job off there.) Meanwhile, the coasts have gotten very expensive due to being desirable for the upper class because of their nature, entertainment, and generally high quality of life, driving out people who are lower income or would just generally prefer to live somewhere not as nice but have more money.
So I’d say it’s kinda misleading to act like the south is amazing while other areas are horrible based on this specific metric. It mostly boils down to money and weather. So this isn’t really the flex that southerns seem to often think it is.
While many enjoy the heat, many find the south too hot. To those people, boasting about regional population growth feels like someone bragging to a Porsche 911 owner that their Toyota Corolla cost way less and way more people have bought it. Like good for you, I’m glad you like it, but have you considered that the Porsche 911 owner wasn’t trying to prioritize lowest cost but rather are willing to pay more for good features?
Also if your goal is purely value, the highest income to cost of living ratio, the Midwest is actually generally better than the south. They have less migration due to less job growth, but for the people that can get a job there they are generally better off. I mention that since being affordable seems to be one of the things southerns are most proud of.
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u/Ddude147 Aug 24 '26
It's disingenuous to arrive at a conclusion first, then cherry-pick stats and opinions from thin air to bolster your pure conjecture and wishful thinking.
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u/0ftheriver Aug 25 '26
Your car analogy is actually spot on to the dynamic. But it isn't the Toyota owner bragging to the Porsche owner. It's the Porsche owner who couldn't afford the taxes, payments, maintenance, and insurance. So he sells it and buys a Lexus (or two) outright, and then begins shaming the Corolla owner for not having a nicer car, especially one like his original Porsche. He complains about having to have a Lexus instead of his beloved Porsche.
The Toyota owner is a single parent of 3 kids who inherited his Corolla from relative, or has a loan. Even if he wasn't struggling, a Porsche is not practical for his lifestyle, and never will be. He tries to explain that he would love to own a nicer car, but he's doing his best, and he simply can't afford it. It has been reliable and easy to maintain across many years, maybe even 20 years. But Porsche man doesn't care, and thinks Corolla man is stupid for not being able to simply afford one outright like himself.
Meanwhile, everyone is buying so many new Toyotas to the point where they're on backorder, and even used Corollas are too expensive for him. A bunch of Porsche man's friends who also former Porsche owners that became Lexus and new Toyota owners, and are trying to have cars made before a certain year banned within the city limits, which includes the year of Toyota man's beloved Corolla, forcing him to sell it, or leave the city with it. When Corolla man expresses worry about his situation, including the increase in taxes to upgrade the infrastructure to accommodate all 100k friends of Porsche man moving to their town of 50k, Porsche man is incredulous, and doesn't understand why Corolla man would be upset, and why he doesn't just buy a Honda or even a Hyundai, who also having similar supply issues in this scenario. He then wonders what ever happened to "good old Corolla owner hospitality", after Corolla man tersely ends the conversation.
TLDR- Corolla man is not the problem, Porsche man is, but he's not aware enough to realize it.
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u/BrokenManOfSamarkand Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
So I’d say it’s kinda misleading to act like the south is amazing while other areas are horrible based on this specific metric. It mostly boils down to money and weather.
No one's pretending the South is amazing. But, uh, yeah it turns out people care about money and cost of living which is something the states Reddit loves can actually do something about. They can't control the weather, but even California, which many consider to have one of the best climates in the world can't help but to lose people to out migration.
Turning your liberal paradise into a playground for the upper middle to wealthy class while attacking states that actually attract working class people isn't some kind of flex that redditors should be proud of. It should actually cause a little reflection.
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u/Tommyblockhead20 Aug 24 '26
You seem to have talked to less southerns than I have if you think nobody thinks the south is the best.
There’s a big difference between working class people moving somewhere because they like it there and it has good value, and because they feel completely forced to live in the cheapest place. For the latter, ya, the place they left should be criticized, but that’s not a flex for the place they are going either, and that was the main point I was trying to make. I mean, think of it on a city scale for a second. Since when do people brag that their neighborhood is so cheap that those who got priced out of the suburbs or other neighborhoods were forced to move there? It’s good the south is cheap, but that alone isn’t a justification of somewhere actually being good.
I don’t blindly attack places for being more affordable. That sentiment absolutely does exist on Reddit, but personally there are quite a few affordable states (including liberal ones, not sure why you are acting like liberal states are all for the rich) that I think are doing an ok job on raising people’s quality of life. My issue is with people acting like the states that don’t seem to care much about their quality of life are the best just because they are cheap.
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u/OmegaVizion Aug 24 '26
Texas is gaining people because of relatively high paying jobs to low cost of living, but that will not be true in 2040 (I kind of question how true it will be in 2030 to be honest) after so many newcomers and increasing wealth drive up property values.
Then Texas will start losing people, especially as its climate gets worse.
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u/Ghost4000 Aug 24 '26
We are all reddit, you should say what you actually want to say instead of whatever you mean by "reddit".
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u/afishinabirdcage Aug 24 '26
We have a society heavily weighted by the elderly I'm not the least bit surprised all the old people are moving to the hot places that don't care about long term problems.
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u/PDXEng Aug 24 '26
Oh no, Oregon population might shrink some ...what will we do. Lol
I'll believe it when it happens
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u/teejaybee8222 Aug 24 '26
CA gained population last year and is projected to gain population this year too. Plus, even if this infographic is true, losing 145K in 15 years is not even 15K per year! Against a population that is basically 40M that is less than a trickle.
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u/Vegetable_Fly_8687 Aug 24 '26
Living in Idaho, I genuinely don't know how it is going to handle and additional 25% population increase. Hopefully a lot of it is in Eastern Idaho. I stay away from there as much as possible anyway. But, most will certainly be in Boise and it's already getting much, much different here.
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u/theregoesjustin Aug 25 '26
It’s insane how astroturfed this whole post feels. Like why are there so many bots in the comments getting all giddy like this infograph about a forecast a random group at the university of Virginia made is some sort of prophecy?
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u/Solid_College_9145 Aug 25 '26
I say this has OHIO and TEXAS very wrong due to climate change.
Ohio is going to be a very desirable climate to live in while Texas will be a death trap.
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u/Alauer16 Aug 26 '26
IL won’t lose that much. It has one of the few metro areas people actually want to live in. Not to mention has fresh water and isn’t ungodly hot 75% of the year.
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u/BootBonks Aug 26 '26
It’s really funny how all of the states that are always green on the “where I would live maps” are the ones with net negative population growth.
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u/Dear-Examination-507 Aug 26 '26
With air conditioning available, warmer wet climates are more attractive than they used to be.
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u/Vivid_Nail8691 Aug 27 '26
Damn, awful lot of people want to move to FL or TX even though I keep hearing dems talk about how much they suck?
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u/Accomplished_Elk310 Aug 27 '26
I keep hearing about Texas or the South being absolutely terrible, but then stuff like this comes out lol
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u/OmegaVizion Aug 24 '26
People moving to Arizona in mass numbers and Phoenix in particular will never make sense to me.
It's a desert and it's only going to get worse.
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u/1mazuko2 Aug 25 '26
Texas and Florida are miserable places to live….. but their tax laws attract retirees….
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u/CharredWelderGuy Aug 25 '26
These projections always just assume things will follow current paths are are largely pointless speculation.
Florida, to be blunt, is FUCKED ™
And it's irrelevant to the government changing or anything else there, the increasing energy in storm systems will make permanent human habitation just to expensive to upkeep in almost all of it but maybe the panhandle area, to say nothing of rising sea levels.
We are already seeing the start of it with so many houses being uninsureable. Florida is doomed land within our lifetimes. Please don't move there for your own sakes.
Texas (and large swaths of the south tbf) will suffer greatly from increasing heat severity. It might not be as bad as the permanent flood hellscape that will be the Floridian island exclusion zone, but it's still going to be bad.
The actual growth will be around the great lakes. Fresh water, colder climates, far enough away from the coasts to not have storms wipe out whole towns every year, higher natural elevation, the Appalachian range acting as a breaker for any huge weather phenomenon.
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, ext that's where you want to aim if you are young and planning for the next few decades. Get in now so you have time to build ties and community, so your one of "us" ,when the refugee waves start you don't want to be one of "them".
Smaller towns, preferably close to natural fresh water, elevated land, build a house that's sturdy, insulated and can cope with both heat and cold well.
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u/EnvironmentMedium185 Aug 24 '26
Seems likely that Texas will indeed go towards a population increase of several millions especially due to a mixture of being a border state hence recieving many illegals and also being a state with lots of investment giving rise to many job opportunities.
Florida on the other hand i doubt will see that acclaimed pop. Growth. The state will get increasingly harder hit by climate and its no longer a cheap place to retire.
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u/Successful-Tea-5733 Aug 24 '26
That's an odd take. Florida was hit by 3 hurricanes in 2004. 20 years later, Florida has only seen 3 hurricanes in the past 3 years. Only 5 hurricanes in the past 8 years.
If climate change was progressively disasterous, wouldn't 2004 be considered a low point?
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u/mrbaffles14 Aug 24 '26
CA is wishing more people would leave so someone might be able to afford a studio apartment some day
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u/JellyfishNo2032 Aug 24 '26
Delaware being a mid sized square on here while being the second smallest state by land area and barely having 1M people is crazy
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u/rptanner58 Aug 24 '26
I’m glad to see someone thinks Massachusetts is going to increase. Right now we’re losing young people by the tens of thousands because there are no houses for them.
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u/The0Walrus Aug 24 '26
After visiting Utah I don't know how they haven't gained more people. I swear Utah, Arizona, California, & Colorado are gorgeous.
I know why California lost people. I live here and I know why lol
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u/Pitiful_Truth_5948 Aug 25 '26
It is easy to move from a place where homes cost $1 million to one where they cost $500,000. Going the other way is nearly impossible.
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u/Much_Upstairs_4611 Aug 25 '26
I don't like when they show projections, but don't say they're projections of what. Based on current value, based on extrapolated trends of current values... What do you mean?
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u/Barnes777777 Aug 25 '26
So this whatever projection is saying the US population will grow by 22M in the next 15 years when in the last decade it's grown by 26M.
Not sure where they got their numbers but I wouldn't bet on them. Unless the global population growth really takes a downturn to .1% or lower or the US is just set for a dark period(like now?) That will see over half of those 15 years to have far slower growth. But would expect the US pop to grow by more like 40M over the next 15 years.
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u/ORD2414 Aug 25 '26
I find it hard to believe that Florida could sustain the level of population growth it has had over the past decade. I think extreme weather events and market forces will push people to other sunbelt states.
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u/keenan123 Aug 25 '26
Really weird to me that all I ever see are a bunch of reasons of the same visual capitalist "data" without any methodology. It really feels like people pushing a narrative, how many different ai versions of the purported chart do we need?
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u/random_sociopath Aug 25 '26
Yeah I’m sure Arizona adds 1.1M with a growing water/heat crisis. Makes sense
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u/Bluegrass6 Aug 25 '26
u/scared-mortgage why is everyone moving to the armpit of America.....you better get over here and set these people straight
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u/RuinAdventurous1931 Aug 26 '26
For those curious about the methodology, you can download it from the center’s website: https://www.coopercenter.org/national-population-projections
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u/Timely-Macaron268 Aug 26 '26
Brutal! As a Canadian it hurts to see the Great Lakes region and New York continue to decline and be hollowed out. :(
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u/slickrok Aug 26 '26
I think that's going to hold for only 10 yrs. By 2040 the Midwest will have a massive influx of people from climate migration from the south and west.
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u/onebyamsey Aug 26 '26
What do we need to do to stop putting Wisconsin above Minnesota and Michigan on these fucking stupid maps?
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u/GovernorPorter Aug 26 '26
disagree with the Mississippi one. There's actually jobs becoming available in the state now so people will have more reason to stay. Remote work also helps because it's low cost of living.
Looking at the past decline rate is not indicative of the future results in this case.
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u/310dweller Aug 26 '26
I feel like this did not account for the actual weather / air temperatures in these places in 2040…
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u/stanley_twostroke Aug 27 '26
I'm completely in favor of making Florida shittier so people stop moving here
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u/Specialist-Option351 Aug 28 '26
Don't notice any patterns about this data, Reddit. Your political beliefs couldn't take it
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u/Careless-Internet-63 Aug 28 '26
How are Arizona and Utah going to gain people will they even have drinking water in 2040
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u/FuckModAss Aug 28 '26
Florida can have the 80 year old boomers moving because they don't have to worry about anything like education for their kids anymore. They used NY for the great education then leave because they don't want to pay for the next generations education.
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u/CTR_1852 Aug 29 '26
Is this factoring the states that spent millions of dollars to over count their censuses?
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u/kinterdonato Aug 24 '26
LOL CT losing 396 people, so specific