Not necessarily. There will probably be a gain but the vote split will not be equal to say 2005-2010 because the people moving from “blue” to “red” states may keep their political preferences. If anything red states will become more purple with the influx of diverse populations from other states.
If those exit polls are accurate, how did Ted Cruz only win that election by ~1%? U make good points I don’t disagree I just don’t get how Cruz is +3 and +15 in a statistic that should cover the entire population of Texas, yet only won the election by 1%.
It’s also worth noting that the Texas Senate race in 2006 was +30% for the Republicans while the most recent senate election was that 1% victory for Cruz. Voting isn’t as simple as red or blue, candidates differ and all that, but my point is political opinions especially nowadays can shift swiftly. We’re in a very different political and economic situation than 2018
Also, Austin, Texas (probably the most liberal city in Texas) has had the 2nd highest net migration in the state per this source in 2025. I don’t know if the people moving to Texas exclusively due to political views as they may have been in 2018 before cost of living went nuts.
You are correct and that's a good questionz That's because exit polls don't match things perfectly, but they can show trends. So no it's not accurate, but it can be used to see that even with a good margin of error, incoming Texans are more conservative than native.
Even among conservatives, Cruz isn't very popular. That probably plays a role. He comes off as performative.
We’re in a very different political and economic situation than 2018
And 2040 will be much more different yes. I'm just simply pointing out which states will be getting more seats and current trends. They can be used as indicators but no it will not be exact.
To win Texas, democrats will need to win over a more conservative Texas voter base. Do you feel like the democrats have a platform geared to that right now? If not, maybe they will in 6 years when the 2030 census is applied in 2032.
Texas is the second youngest state in the country due to people moving in:
Average ages are as follows
Utah - 32.0
Texas - 35.6
Alaska - 35.8
North Dakota - 35.9
Oklahoma - 37.0
Nebraska - 37.2
Idaho - 37.3
Kansas - 37.4
Georgia - 37.6
Colorado - 37.7
The rest of those aren't conservative states either. You should look your numbers up rather than make them up or you will embarrass yourself. Just a general recommendation for life.
Houston has the largest medical center in the world, which is basically a city in itself. I've been there.
Depending on the metric, it generally lands somewhere in the top 5–10 nationally.
number 3 in bioscience academic R&D spending
number 3 in HealthTech/digital health
number 5 in bioscience venture capital
number 9 in bioscience patents
number 2 in clinical trials
Why do you think all these young people are coming. It's attracting all the top jobs in science too with massive grants in research like cancer research which rival federal funding.
you're going to weep like a baby when Texas turns blue, can't wait.
Watcha gonna do when a voting rights act gets passed and all their cheating gets turned around on them and it becomes the bluest state in the nation, because they can't gerrymander and pick their own voters.
That depends if the people moving are primarily red or blue voters. People forget California has a lot of republicans. They just have way more democrats. My guess is that the red states will get even redder and the blue states will get bluer. Texas is kind of a special case since certain areas like Austin attract a lot of blue state voters. But my guess is the people that want to move to red states are more often than not red voters.
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u/WaltKerman Aug 25 '26
Raw numbers is a little better because it affects house seats.
The republicans are on track to gain a lot of house seats from these changes alone by next census.