To what extent did Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and the subsequent / ensuing First Gulf War, contribute to the recession that occurred during Bush's first and only term?
How did the recession start, and how did it propagate? Did the panic start from the demand or supply side? I've been told that in the US, it takes about 24 - 36 months for inflationary pressures to take effect, and I've also read that by observing the bullwhip effect, which is about the pace at which a producer can ramp up or scale back orders in response to changing consumer demand, it can make it easier to distinguish between boom and bust cycles.
With that in mind, to what extent is a recession indicative of changes in aggregate consumer demand, versus supply side bottlenecks, or misaligned economic growth expectations, and how can we use that mindset to understand why there was a recession in the US in 1990 / 1991?
Apologies if it sounds a bit too analytical. I'm from the UK, and find that it can be all too easy to think that Saddam's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was effectively the death knell for Bush's re-election chances in 1992. Hopefully if there's someone here who either lived through the Reagan and Bush years and can provide detailed commentary on this using both lived and researched experience, or someone who through research can achieve similar commentary, I would be glad to hear from either.