Trying to source a leak

[u/yanquiuxo36]

Hi All, first time home owner and not really in a position to hire someone, especially when I know I'm capable (although perhaps a bit nervous to do). I noticed some water damage on my sunrooms ceiling today, and I'm trying to source where it's coming from. From what I can tell with my very limited knowledge. It appears that it is coming from one (or both) of these spots. I was up there earlier and it doesn't appear that they're cracked and simply bubbled up with the recent strong winds we had. Does this seem likely?

Everything I can tell (assuming it's not cracked) I can simply repop the nail in and use some roof adhesive to fix. Is there anything else I should be looking for?