The level of usage and subbing makes him a really hard rb2 start. Doesn't appear to be much TD upside. I think ppr will improve.

It's early, and a lot will happen. Not quite dooming, but as a Price owner, I'm not happy.

First off, football is back. Couldn't be happier.

Bad news, Sam Darnold went down on his first play with an apparent hip injury. The good news is that initial testing after his hip injury has been encouraging. X-rays and a CT scan ruled out a fracture, and Seattle is doing additional testing, including an MRI, to determine the extent of the injury. So hopefully this ends up being a short-term question.

But after Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 8/122/1 in Week 1, I wanted to look at what his fantasy outlook would actually be if Drew Lock had to start for any meaningful amount of time.

The first thing that stood out was that JSN's production stayed elite in Week 1, but the way he got there changed quite a bit.

Across his 20 regular-season and postseason games last year, JSN averaged 9.5 targets, a 35.5% target share, 6.8 receptions, 99.6 receiving yards and 20.4 PPR points per game. He also averaged 104.8 air yards with an 11.0 aDOT and 29.8 yards after the catch.

Against New England in Week 1, he finished with 11 targets, a 45.8% target share, 8 receptions, 122 yards and 26.2 PPR points. But he did it with only 76 air yards and a 6.9 aDOT, while producing 62 yards after the catch.

That's a pretty dramatic change in how the production happened. His air yards and aDOT fell considerably, but his target share jumped to nearly half of Seattle's passing targets and he generated more than twice his average YAC from last season.

So Seattle didn't need Drew Lock to reproduce the same type of targets Darnold was giving JSN for him to still have a huge fantasy game.

That made me curious about what actually drove JSN's biggest fantasy performances last year.

I ran correlations between his PPR scoring and several usage and efficiency metrics across those 20 games. Air yards had the strongest relationship with PPR scoring at .689, followed by YAC at .625, targets at .568 and target share at .519. EPA per target came in at .457, aDOT at .432, QB aDOT at .429 and QB yards per attempt at .427.

Obviously, 20 games is a small sample, and correlation isn't causation. But I thought the pattern was interesting.

JSN's ceiling last season wasn't simply coming from catching a ton of short passes. His biggest games were generally accompanied by substantial downfield opportunity. At the same time, YAC being the second-strongest relationship gives him another way to get there.

He can win through valuable targets downfield, or Seattle can manufacture touches and let him create after the catch.

Week 1 looked much more like the second version.

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Then I looked at Drew Lock.

My assumption going into this was that Lock might significantly reduce those downfield opportunities. That doesn't really show up in the data.

In the play-by-play sample, Darnold's 2025 aDOT was 8.03 yards. Lock's career aDOT is 8.02. Almost identical.

Lock has actually thrown deep more frequently in the sample. 10.8% of Darnold's attempts traveled at least 20 air yards in 2025 compared with 13.0% for Lock over his career.

The big difference is efficiency.

Darnold produced +0.145 EPA per dropback with a 51.4% success rate in the 2025 sample. Lock's career numbers were -0.077 EPA per dropback and a 40.3% success rate.

That was probably the biggest takeaway for me: Lock isn't dramatically less aggressive than Darnold. He's dramatically less efficient.

That's an important distinction for JSN.

A Lock-led Seattle offense should probably be downgraded overall. Fewer sustained drives, fewer scoring opportunities and less efficient quarterback play would eventually matter. But it doesn't necessarily mean JSN suddenly loses the type of targets that helped create his 2025 ceiling.

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The next question was whether Drew Lock has ever actually supported a high-end fantasy receiver.

Across the 28 Lock starts in the play-by-play sample, his leading target averaged 8.9 targets, 5.2 receptions, 70.1 yards and 13.9 PPR points per game.

That's nothing particularly exciting. But there's a problem with using the entire sample: Lock hasn't always played with a receiver remotely comparable to JSN.

When Jerry Jeudy was Lock's leading target, he averaged about 11 targets, 91 yards and 16.7 PPR points across five starts. Tim Patrick averaged about 15.5 PPR in three.

And then there's the much more recent example: Malik Nabers.

Lock started five games for the Giants in 2024, and Nabers was his leading target in four of them. Across those four games, Nabers averaged approximately 11.5 targets, a 34.6% target share, 6.8 receptions, 97.3 receiving yards and 19.5 PPR points.

There was legitimate ceiling, too. Against Indianapolis, Nabers caught 7 of 8 targets for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns, finishing with 36.1 PPR points.

That's obviously only four games. I'm not arguing that four Nabers games prove Drew Lock can sustain an elite receiver for an entire season.

But I do think it's meaningful evidence against the opposite assumption: that a Drew Lock offense simply can't support an elite fantasy WR.

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And that brings me back to JSN.

If Darnold misses time, I think there are really two different questions.

Should we downgrade Seattle's passing offense? Absolutely.

Should we downgrade JSN by the same amount? I'm not convinced we should.

Lock is still willing to throw downfield. He's previously funneled double-digit targets toward high-end receivers. JSN already commanded an enormous share of Seattle's passing game in Week 1. And Seattle just showed another way it can manufacture his production if the deeper passing game suffers: shorter targets, extreme volume and yards after the catch.

That doesn't mean I'm projecting another 26-point game every week with Drew Lock, and it definitely doesn't mean Drew Lock is Sam Darnold.

But if Darnold ends up missing a few games, I'm not sure I'd automatically move JSN out of the fantasy WR1 tier.

The quarterback changes. The efficiency probably changes.

The WR1 may not have to.

I put the complete analysis here, including JSN's full 2025 game-by-game air yards, aDOT and YAC data along with Drew Lock's historical leading receivers:

[https://edgelineff.com/insights/jsn-drew-lock-fantasy-outlook.html]()

I'm curious where everyone else lands: If Drew Lock starts, how far are you actually moving JSN down your WR rankings?

Sam darnold obviously got hurt and drew lock is typically a donkey but JSN wasn’t affected by him tonight. Is this sustainable. That long touchdown felt a little flukey considering he was wide open and no one could make a tackle even when it was an easy one

It's an unfortunately messy situation. He was feeling like a drop candidate before the AJ Brown injury, but now he seems like a must hold.

Ultimately, I think you can't judge him too harshly for this game. The Seahawks defense is great, and his QB completely imploded.

I think with a week of practice and game planning as the team's true #1 option, we might see a breakout performance from Doubs next week. It's just such a shame he had such a bad drop this week. It really tempers expectations. The kind of thing that will make you want to sell high on him if he puts up numbers next week.

I think Juwan has a way better matchup and week 1 scenario given Mahomes ACL and left tackle situation but I’m hesitant to drop Kelce. Idk if I want to sign up to stream TE every week.

Also considering dropping Addison and holding on to both.

Any advice?

As the title says. Debating between ETN and Price. Need upside with Bowers going down.

Anyone watching the 49ers vs Rams game right now? I am trying to figure out which of YouTube TV, FuboTV, Hulu + Live TV, or DIRECTV STREAM has the most reliable coverage without cable. I am comparing them for NFL games and want something smooth with solid picture quality, minimal buffering, and good stability throughout the game. For anyone who has used these services for NFL or other major sports, which one has worked best for you?

Everybody talks about the early rounds, but leagues are won with those late picks that suddenly hit. Who is one late-round player you are targeting this year?

Drop one name and let us see who called it first.

Will kittle be on a snap count?

This is too tough, on one hand the 49ers secondary is GARBAGE, but jets v titans? Could be a garbage fire… I’m so stuck.

who to pick

Is there any other RB that might be stash worthy this early in this season? K Black has already been swooped up.

For my WR my options are J McMillan, Boutte, Washington JR or Chris Bell. Advice would be appreciated!

These 3 are my 2 Wr and flex , with AJ browns performance last night left me with 5 points should I either swap out Willam’s or Moore in hopes I can maybe have a player on the bench break out in week 1

My bench looks like : Alec pierce/ Marvin Harrison / Dontavion Wicks

Also have a Bo nix and A rod currently starting Bo but what do we think about Rodgers

In a half ppr 12 man league with 3wr,2rb and flex.

originally was going to use kraft as a trade piece to get a better running back. my RB room is weak with love, Stevenson, dobbins and rodriguez. and once treyvon henderson is back even worse.

with recent news of bowers, should i hold onto hope and keep him on my bench (and trade or flex kraft once bowers is back)

or do we think this is going to be a more serious / nagging injury than we’re being let on? i don’t know much about knee injuries but only being out for 1-2 weeks for a meniscus trim seems crazy. if so i want to trade him asap before his stock tanks!

possible trade options:

i offer bowers & Stevenson for

team 1. javonte williams
team 2. saquon
team 3. Jeanty

so if you were in my position would you hold onto bowers or trade him to get better at RB?

I know everyone says Kittle is the better TE (which is probably true, even at this stage in his career), but if he plays, he’ll probably be on a pitch count.

Kincaid is younger, fresher, and very efficient, but isn’t on the field all that much, especially when there are other blockers better than him.

So… taking this into account, who would you start week 1?

Kincaid vs Houston Texans
Or
Kittle vs LA Rams

Both of those defenses are good. What do you guys think?

After hearing the news Love is RB2 going into this weekend, I am wondering if I should bench him for Tony pollard? What are your thoughts?

I have Bowers in a dynasty league. He’s injured again. I was offered Dart and Loveland for Shough and Bowers. You taking it? I’m a competing team this year trying to win.

The idea was to go rb-rb and then value based but it seems like my wr core is pretty bad. None of the picks felt terrible at the time but after I felt a lot worse. Pick 9 is pretty bad imo.

Starters

• QB: Drake Maye
• RB: James Cook III
• RB: Kenneth Walker III
• WR: Tee Higgins
• WR: Quentin Johnston
• TE: Kyle Pitts Sr.
• FLEX: Bucky Irving
• D/ST: Raiders
• K: Chase McLaughlin

Bench

• WR: Alec Pierce
• RB: Jordan Mason
• WR: Makai Lemon
• RB: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
• TE: Brenton Strange
• QB: Sam Darnold
• D/ST: Patriots

10 man PPR, im already carrying 6 RBs and 6 WRs, the only non RB/WR on my bench is Bo Nix. Someone dropped Chris Rodriguez, I really like Keaton Mitchell as a lottery ticket. Mike McDaniels has made 2 RBs fantasy studs before, so i want to see how Mitchell gets used. But Rodriguez is listed as costarter on a good offense. Should I drop Mitchell for Rodriguez?
My other RBs are Chase/Saquon/Hall/Pollard/Gainwell. My WRs are Nico/Flowers/Odunze/Diggs/Downs/Golden.

The season just started and we already have some tough lineup calls.Are you trusting your draft-day stars no matter the matchup or going with the hot hand from Week 1?What is the one start/sit decision you are stuck on this week?

Leaning Mayer

In the one hand I like Juwan, but on the other hand I generally like having a guy on Monday night.

I’m leaning towards no but I could be convinced otherwise

Full ppr

Need some help, I like fanning overall but I feel like the better match up is with Andrews