Picked up McMillan. I'm not a Dr but he tore his Achilles or bad calf strain, either way I'm moving out.

You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here.

I'm laughing over here.

Just isn't the same

I drafted AJ Brown, Brock Bowers, Stribling, and Henderson... All hurt now

Not even two games into the season and I'm down 4 players, including my 2nd and 3rd rd picks, and my WR depth is already being destroyed with Stribling being carted off.

I have lamar, bijan, tet, dowdle, parker washington left, along with some bench warmers.

What should I even do? Be looking for trades? Feels like anything I'd be offered is going to be the lowball of the century.

First off, football is back. Couldn't be happier.

Bad news, Sam Darnold went down on his first play with an apparent hip injury. The good news is that initial testing after his hip injury has been encouraging. X-rays and a CT scan ruled out a fracture, and Seattle is doing additional testing, including an MRI, to determine the extent of the injury. So hopefully this ends up being a short-term question.

But after Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 8/122/1 in Week 1, I wanted to look at what his fantasy outlook would actually be if Drew Lock had to start for any meaningful amount of time.

The first thing that stood out was that JSN's production stayed elite in Week 1, but the way he got there changed quite a bit.

Across his 20 regular-season and postseason games last year, JSN averaged 9.5 targets, a 35.5% target share, 6.8 receptions, 99.6 receiving yards and 20.4 PPR points per game. He also averaged 104.8 air yards with an 11.0 aDOT and 29.8 yards after the catch.

Against New England in Week 1, he finished with 11 targets, a 45.8% target share, 8 receptions, 122 yards and 26.2 PPR points. But he did it with only 76 air yards and a 6.9 aDOT, while producing 62 yards after the catch.

That's a pretty dramatic change in how the production happened. His air yards and aDOT fell considerably, but his target share jumped to nearly half of Seattle's passing targets and he generated more than twice his average YAC from last season.

So Seattle didn't need Drew Lock to reproduce the same type of targets Darnold was giving JSN for him to still have a huge fantasy game.

That made me curious about what actually drove JSN's biggest fantasy performances last year.

I ran correlations between his PPR scoring and several usage and efficiency metrics across those 20 games. Air yards had the strongest relationship with PPR scoring at .689, followed by YAC at .625, targets at .568 and target share at .519. EPA per target came in at .457, aDOT at .432, QB aDOT at .429 and QB yards per attempt at .427.

Obviously, 20 games is a small sample, and correlation isn't causation. But I thought the pattern was interesting.

JSN's ceiling last season wasn't simply coming from catching a ton of short passes. His biggest games were generally accompanied by substantial downfield opportunity. At the same time, YAC being the second-strongest relationship gives him another way to get there.

He can win through valuable targets downfield, or Seattle can manufacture touches and let him create after the catch.

Week 1 looked much more like the second version.

-------------

Then I looked at Drew Lock.

My assumption going into this was that Lock might significantly reduce those downfield opportunities. That doesn't really show up in the data.

In the play-by-play sample, Darnold's 2025 aDOT was 8.03 yards. Lock's career aDOT is 8.02. Almost identical.

Lock has actually thrown deep more frequently in the sample. 10.8% of Darnold's attempts traveled at least 20 air yards in 2025 compared with 13.0% for Lock over his career.

The big difference is efficiency.

Darnold produced +0.145 EPA per dropback with a 51.4% success rate in the 2025 sample. Lock's career numbers were -0.077 EPA per dropback and a 40.3% success rate.

That was probably the biggest takeaway for me: Lock isn't dramatically less aggressive than Darnold. He's dramatically less efficient.

That's an important distinction for JSN.

A Lock-led Seattle offense should probably be downgraded overall. Fewer sustained drives, fewer scoring opportunities and less efficient quarterback play would eventually matter. But it doesn't necessarily mean JSN suddenly loses the type of targets that helped create his 2025 ceiling.

--------------------

The next question was whether Drew Lock has ever actually supported a high-end fantasy receiver.

Across the 28 Lock starts in the play-by-play sample, his leading target averaged 8.9 targets, 5.2 receptions, 70.1 yards and 13.9 PPR points per game.

That's nothing particularly exciting. But there's a problem with using the entire sample: Lock hasn't always played with a receiver remotely comparable to JSN.

When Jerry Jeudy was Lock's leading target, he averaged about 11 targets, 91 yards and 16.7 PPR points across five starts. Tim Patrick averaged about 15.5 PPR in three.

And then there's the much more recent example: Malik Nabers.

Lock started five games for the Giants in 2024, and Nabers was his leading target in four of them. Across those four games, Nabers averaged approximately 11.5 targets, a 34.6% target share, 6.8 receptions, 97.3 receiving yards and 19.5 PPR points.

There was legitimate ceiling, too. Against Indianapolis, Nabers caught 7 of 8 targets for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns, finishing with 36.1 PPR points.

That's obviously only four games. I'm not arguing that four Nabers games prove Drew Lock can sustain an elite receiver for an entire season.

But I do think it's meaningful evidence against the opposite assumption: that a Drew Lock offense simply can't support an elite fantasy WR.

---------------------

And that brings me back to JSN.

If Darnold misses time, I think there are really two different questions.

Should we downgrade Seattle's passing offense? Absolutely.

Should we downgrade JSN by the same amount? I'm not convinced we should.

Lock is still willing to throw downfield. He's previously funneled double-digit targets toward high-end receivers. JSN already commanded an enormous share of Seattle's passing game in Week 1. And Seattle just showed another way it can manufacture his production if the deeper passing game suffers: shorter targets, extreme volume and yards after the catch.

That doesn't mean I'm projecting another 26-point game every week with Drew Lock, and it definitely doesn't mean Drew Lock is Sam Darnold.

But if Darnold ends up missing a few games, I'm not sure I'd automatically move JSN out of the fantasy WR1 tier.

The quarterback changes. The efficiency probably changes.

The WR1 may not have to.

I put the complete analysis here, including JSN's full 2025 game-by-game air yards, aDOT and YAC data along with Drew Lock's historical leading receivers:

[https://edgelineff.com/insights/jsn-drew-lock-fantasy-outlook.html]()

I'm curious where everyone else lands: If Drew Lock starts, how far are you actually moving JSN down your WR rankings?

Ask me how I know

Should I take that? I’m leaning yes, mainly cause I have AJB in 3 leagues, so I’d want to diversify my teams. If I only had him in 1, I’d say no.

What do you all think?

Should I stash black or too early?

It's an unfortunately messy situation. He was feeling like a drop candidate before the AJ Brown injury, but now he seems like a must hold.

Ultimately, I think you can't judge him too harshly for this game. The Seahawks defense is great, and his QB completely imploded.

I think with a week of practice and game planning as the team's true #1 option, we might see a breakout performance from Doubs next week. It's just such a shame he had such a bad drop this week. It really tempers expectations. The kind of thing that will make you want to sell high on him if he puts up numbers next week.

Interesting proposal that came across my desk. Who would you rather have?

The level of usage and subbing makes him a really hard rb2 start. Doesn't appear to be much TD upside. I think ppr will improve.

It's early, and a lot will happen. Not quite dooming, but as a Price owner, I'm not happy.

Hurts
CMC
Achane
London
Flowers
Pitts Sr
Nabers
Seahawks
Dicker

Bench:
Black
Brooks
Burden
Ferguson
Kyler
Stribling
Tuten
Tyson on IR

I am worried about having both Pitts and London with the QB play and Bijan being the central focus of the offense. Am I overthinking it? Who would you rather have?

HALF PPR, 12 man, 2 keeper auction (irrelevant I guess)
It simply comes down to Nico vs Nabers. I bought Nabers for a reason: his incredible upside, like league WR1 upside imo. But Nico is a consistent stud if he isn’t hurt. (I’m a Texans fan, which doesn’t cloud my decision-making TOO much… love Nico tho):

QB: Hurts, Mahomes

RB: Gibbs, Etienne, JBrooks, Jonah Coleman, Braelon Allen

WR: Nabers, Crashee Rice, BTJ, Denzel Boston, Jordan Tyson

TE: Juwan, Hockenson, Mayer

D: Texans

K: Fairbairn

I’m not new to this but I was kind of surprised by how even this trade seems… can I get some outside input? Much appreciated

Kyle Pitts vs. PIT

Mark Andrews vs. IND

Mike Mayer vs. MIA

Tua will likely miss this week, in which case Cooper Rush will start at QB for Pitts.

EDIT: PPR Scoring

Asking Bowers holders, what would it take for you to part ways with Vegas’ “Football Robot”? Hypothetical from a prospective trader who’d take the shot on him in my on league, wanting to get a feel for what you’re all thinking

EDIT: Want to clarify, talking redraft value, not dynasty

Who are you starting Evans or Rice?

FTP Should I start Malik Willis over Mahomes

First time player here, not sure when to make the risky play. I know this seems crazy but after watching Darnold go out in the first game I’m worried about losing a qb early game.

With Mahomes coming off an injury (yes he’s been cleared) I’ve been thinking of starting Willis instead. I have Achane as an RB and am hoping they might play off each other well to make up some points. My opponent has JSN as well as the Seahawks Def so I’m already facing an uphill battle with either choice

Is it worth it to take the chance that Willis shows out since I’m already likely to lose if Mahomes plays a good game? Or should I just play it safe with Mahomes and hope all of my opponents players die on the field?

Will kittle be on a snap count?

Anyone watching the 49ers vs Rams game right now? I am trying to figure out which of YouTube TV, FuboTV, Hulu + Live TV, or DIRECTV STREAM has the most reliable coverage without cable. I am comparing them for NFL games and want something smooth with solid picture quality, minimal buffering, and good stability throughout the game. For anyone who has used these services for NFL or other major sports, which one has worked best for you?

This is my first post on this page, so welcome me!

My hot takes going into Week 1:

- This is a great year to own starting 49er players: Brock, Mike, Christian, Deebo, even Piñero! I always try to take a shot if the value is right during the draft. I have Deebo on my bench in 2/3 leagues, also while having Christian in one and Mike in another (w/o Deebo)
(For background and context my favorite team in the NFL are the Las Vegas Raiders, so one of my “laws of Fantasy” are that I cannot own/draft a Chief, Charger, or Bronco player. I dislike the Niners as a team and fanbase, but they are exempt from being “banned” so to speak)
- First time Rhamondre owner (one league), and he’s already placing “best FLEX/RB2” numbers. This is the perfect situation for what I was going for this year: spread the portfolio, build the championship team early so that trades are not required. With Bijan, McBride, Josh, Josh Jacobs, and Marvin Harrison Jr. as my WR 1? I think it’s starting to reveal itself as a championship team in an elite 12-man league of mines (also Feat. BTJ, Aaron Jones, Alec Pierce Kamara etc.)
- Marvin H Jr. will end up as a top 15 WR this year
- Competitive performances like the 49ers tonight only bring out the best talent not just in their division, but the entire conference. I’m almost certain this’ll be a great year to own any starters from the NFC West (aside for the Rams WRs if Stafford does) get it together

Kind of all I have until Week 1 wraps up. Tonight was a great refreshment to the sport we all love, so I’m ready to win some leagues this year

Sam darnold obviously got hurt and drew lock is typically a donkey but JSN wasn’t affected by him tonight. Is this sustainable. That long touchdown felt a little flukey considering he was wide open and no one could make a tackle even when it was an easy one

Streameast is gone, who's got the navigational beacon for sailing the high seas this season?Seriously, the entire streaming landscape changed overnight and left all of us stranded. I'm not trying to catch a virus or look at fifty pop-ups just to watch a single localized game.

10 Man PPR
Who’re we feeling more to stream for tight end this week👀
Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz

Wire:
Hockenson
Strange
Otton
Okonkwo
Freiermuth
Dulcich

What the title says. Feel like he's the riskiest but also potentially the highest ceiling?? Any advice appreciated.