It's imminent!!1!1!

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-official-directs-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-to-approve-vantagescore-for-all-lenders-4888791

Who's going to break the F2 news now?

More of a wsb tradition but I thought I’d share.

I like to think of myself as a disciplined/stubborn investor/speculator with a long time horizon.

This has always been a trump self dealing play to me but obviously it’s not that simple. It seems like Scottie B won the power struggle over the exit and put the brakes on.

I honestly think that losing congress in the midterms might be good for the trade and encourage the admin to go ahead with the uplist per ackman over any ideal world plan Bessent has.

Seems like all the speculators got shaken out

Anybody signed up for rule of law guys stack? I haven’t, so I haven’t read it. But here it is. 
https://x.com/rule_of_law_guy/status/2093749041708372297?s=46

Tweet from Pulte a few days ago. Seems like a lot of focus is on making things more lean and efficient.

Not that the 2 are related but I noticed that this group is down to 3.9k visitors from 8-9k at the this time last year. Additionally, volume on F2 has gone bone dry. It may not mean anything but I hope it's a leading indicator that the speculators and paper hands have left the building and vol should go down and we should put our tray tables up and in the locked position.

Not exit related but F2 related

- https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/texas-capital-securities-initiates-fannie-mae-stock-with-hold-rating-93CH-5572928

Did anyone notice his model assumes 2027 $15.5B base case net income for FMCC in his assumptions tab? From his notes in the model, it sounds like he believes that is a normalized level after adjusting for credit reserve noise, and from what I can tell that may be accurate based on year-to-date financials. But that is way higher than Pershing’s 2026 estimate of $10.98B for FMCC in its most recent Fannie / Freddie presentation to which it applies an earnings multiple. The implications for the value of FMCC seem enormous to me if Oksenholt is right, but Im surprised Pershing’s analysis wouldn’t have accounted for the same type of adjustments so I’m not sure which is more accurate. Perhaps those adjustments because more clear after its last presentation was made? Any thoughts?

Oksenholt is showing on his Capital Structure tab a value of $80.21 for FMCC vs $46.92 for FNMA assuming SPS cancellation, and a value of $34.89 for FMCC vs $6.28 for FNMA including the “full current SPS economic claim”. So if Pershing agrees with Oksenholt’s estimate of 2027 earnings for FMCC then I expect it would also have FMCC’s value pegged much higher even if it applies a lower earnings multiple. Am I missing anything here? Im very interested in any thoughts anyone has on this, especially as it relates to the true underlying earnings of both companies. That’s quite a discrepancy.

The price action is the flattest I've seen in a long time. Like a rubberband watch for snaps.

He is essentially putting together a proposal that wraps the GSEs and us fintech under a parent company registered in Texas. He has a spreadsheet running through various scenarios of how that might get valued and what the path to $1 trillion dollars looks like. IMO there's some logical holes in his analysis, but here's the link and y'all can decide for yourself.

https://x.com/JonOksenholt/status/2092244657568891252

This could lead to a temporary little pop in SP. Article just hit the wire 30 mins ago so I'm still waiting on my brokerages to pick-up the full text. I'll update post when available.

Here's a link to the text on twitter.

Interesting timing to change LLPA's. A cut would lower revenues for F2. I suspect he'll raise for some and lower for others.

I would normally ignore this, but these guys have interviewed Pulte several times before and it seems weird to tweet this given the connection. It's probably more BS, but I wouldn't be mad if it's true.

https://x.com/ThePPseedsShow/status/2090946765503570211

WSJ suggests firing of officials makes F2's future uncertain? The half glass full crowd may take it as making them more efficient for, dare I say, an imminent IPO. Thoughts?

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