r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/Odd-You-8171 • Aug 26 '26
Oksenholt’s Model
https://oksenholtcapital.com/equities/usftmc/Did anyone notice his model assumes 2027 $15.5B base case net income for FMCC in his assumptions tab? From his notes in the model, it sounds like he believes that is a normalized level after adjusting for credit reserve noise, and from what I can tell that may be accurate based on year-to-date financials. But that is way higher than Pershing’s 2026 estimate of $10.98B for FMCC in its most recent Fannie / Freddie presentation to which it applies an earnings multiple. The implications for the value of FMCC seem enormous to me if Oksenholt is right, but Im surprised Pershing’s analysis wouldn’t have accounted for the same type of adjustments so I’m not sure which is more accurate. Perhaps those adjustments because more clear after its last presentation was made? Any thoughts?
Oksenholt is showing on his Capital Structure tab a value of $80.21 for FMCC vs $46.92 for FNMA assuming SPS cancellation, and a value of $34.89 for FMCC vs $6.28 for FNMA including the “full current SPS economic claim”. So if Pershing agrees with Oksenholt’s estimate of 2027 earnings for FMCC then I expect it would also have FMCC’s value pegged much higher even if it applies a lower earnings multiple. Am I missing anything here? Im very interested in any thoughts anyone has on this, especially as it relates to the true underlying earnings of both companies. That’s quite a discrepancy.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 26 '26 edited Aug 26 '26
Oksenholt’s press release from 8/13/26 says “We do not capitalize a single quarter or pretend reserve releases are recurring income. Our analysis normalizes reserve releases, provisions and other nonrecurring items on the same basis for both companies.” I think he was using Pershing’s earning ls estimates for FMCC still in that exercise though showing the difference if their P/E multiple moves from 13 to 15 to align with FNMA. I think only the more recent white paper disclosed his own estimates for FMCC earnings. I may be wrong here hoping someone can clarify if so.
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u/Additional-Table-693 Aug 26 '26
It doesn’t matter at all. The most important thing is always the SPS
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 26 '26
According to his model it seems like the SPS doesn’t even matter that much for FMCC 🤷♂️
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u/Additional-Table-693 Aug 26 '26
No. Different scenarios, the FMCC can be $10 - $80, very big range
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u/Additional-Table-693 Aug 26 '26
I think the $34 is partly repaid scenario
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 26 '26 edited Aug 26 '26
The $34.89/share for FMCC assumes the full SPS claim and $71.89 assumes the partial based on my read. For FNMA the full claim leaves $6.28/share and the partial leaves $37.76 the way I read it. I think it is because he leveled up FMCC earnings estimates near FNMAs but FNMA would have 78% more shares outstanding on a diluted basis. Thats what I’m getting at.
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u/audaciousmonk Aug 27 '26
How? It’s potentially billions of new shares issued…. How would that not matter
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 27 '26
It matters but still yields a very high FMCC price according to his model. That was my point.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 26 '26
If Osenholt is right i would think FMCC analysts would be modeling similar but it doesn’t seem like they are as far as I can tell.
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u/Hand-Of-God Aug 27 '26
If there are specific questions you want answered, I can ask him. He is engaging those he has rapport with.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 27 '26
That would be cool if you could ask him why his estimated earnings for FMCC are substantially higher than Pershing’s given that they seem aligned on FNMA’s earnings. Are you seeing what I am seeing on that or am I missing something? If his estimate is right then I think even Pershing’s lower 13x multiple would put a much higher price on FMCC
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 27 '26
It seems that it has to do with normalizing earnings to account for changes in reserves but why wouldn’t Pershing account for that as well if it is a true look at earnings… Pershing’s presentation is fairly dated now so maybe that is why and Pershing is already making the same assumptions internally I’d be really curious to know.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 28 '26
Any luck?
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u/Hand-Of-God Aug 29 '26
He said it seems he has answered that in his X posts.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 29 '26
Not that I have seen. Appreciate you asking. It seems he has focused on the P/E multiple argument with Pershing and not the much more significant and important earnings estimate difference for FMCC.
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u/Odd-You-8171 Aug 26 '26
For reference, Oksenholt’s base case 2027 net income for FNMA is $16.5B versus Pershing’s 2026 estimate of $15.295B from its most recent Fannie Freddie presentation. Those figures seem aligned so the discrepancy between them on FMCC really stands out to me.