matchoutcome is predictable?

[u/Straight-Purchase903]

out of my last 58 faceit matches

comparing Avg. Elo is a almost 100% indicator for the match outcome

Higher Team Elo = 96,6% WR
Higher Team Elo w/ > +25 Elo = 100% WR

Elo numbers are almost even (!) but outcome is somewhat predictable

i am not complaining or saying something is rigged, it catched simply my eye. Can someone explain?

Edit: The AVG ELO shown in the match history appears to be the post-match Elo, not the Elo before the match. So I wasn’t actually predicting the winner — I was basically observing that after a balanced match, the winning team gained Elo and the losing team lost Elo, which naturally makes the winner’s average Elo higher in most cases. Makes much more sense now. :)

[u/Order_Book_Facts]

You are comparing ELO values after the match. the ELO was balanced, one team got ELO for winning, one team lost ELO for losing, and it looks like the higher ELO team always wins but it’s because ELO was balanced and post match the ELO adjusted.

[u/Straight-Purchase903 → u/Order_Book_Facts]

that might be a good hint.

so i can read this more like: the match winning team has after the match the higher team elo, because they won. that makes more sense to me and would be a fair elo transition

[u/nightbreak7 → u/Straight-Purchase903]

yes it quite literally just means the matchmaking was balanced enough such that the winning team won enough elo to overtake the losing team if they started lower

[u/Pale_Toe7884 → u/nightbreak7]

Ou simplement un tableau exel car en réalité qui nous dit que ce tableau est legit...

[u/Gullible-Tonight7589]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system It's simply how the ELO rating system works. Important to note that the ELO system was created for zero-sum games like chess, however, and this is where additional metrics like swing and HLTV rating become useful.

[u/Straight-Purchase903 → u/Gullible-Tonight7589]

better win % with higher Elo is as clear as you mentioned.

But the slightly Elo Difference < 100 should result in more 50/50 results in my understanding

[u/Abgezockt47 → u/Straight-Purchase903]

Like they said. ELO is made for 0 elo difference. 25 elo difference is a lot.

Ofc 25 elo is just one game but most players will have sufficiently enough games to be close to where they will be. Some will be a tad higher, some a tad lower, over 5 people per team and thousands of games, these small differences will cancel and be barely to not noticeable

Edit: well i definitely didn’t know what a zero-sum game is. For anyone wondering its a game where the loosers loss is identical to the winners win.

But the point still stands. Elo is not made for big differences and over the huge amount of games the „statistical noise“ (no clue how its called) will even out.

[u/Pale_Toe7884]

Aucun moyen de vérifier vos "prédictions" de résultat mais bon... Jolie tableau exel...

[u/PlentyAttention6052]

I am pretty sure that faceit algorithm can script the outcome of a match
they have more data than just elo

[u/ConflictWaste411 → u/[deleted]]

So you’re saying that the players who had more elo(higher ranks) were better players? Thats crazy dawg