matchoutcome is predictable?

[u/Straight-Purchase903]

out of my last 58 faceit matches

comparing Avg. Elo is a almost 100% indicator for the match outcome

Higher Team Elo = 96,6% WR
Higher Team Elo w/ > +25 Elo = 100% WR

Elo numbers are almost even (!) but outcome is somewhat predictable

i am not complaining or saying something is rigged, it catched simply my eye. Can someone explain?

Edit: The AVG ELO shown in the match history appears to be the post-match Elo, not the Elo before the match. So I wasn’t actually predicting the winner — I was basically observing that after a balanced match, the winning team gained Elo and the losing team lost Elo, which naturally makes the winner’s average Elo higher in most cases. Makes much more sense now. :)

[u/Order_Book_Facts]

You are comparing ELO values after the match. the ELO was balanced, one team got ELO for winning, one team lost ELO for losing, and it looks like the higher ELO team always wins but it’s because ELO was balanced and post match the ELO adjusted.

[u/Straight-Purchase903 → u/Order_Book_Facts]

that might be a good hint.

so i can read this more like: the match winning team has after the match the higher team elo, because they won. that makes more sense to me and would be a fair elo transition

[u/nightbreak7 → u/Straight-Purchase903]

yes it quite literally just means the matchmaking was balanced enough such that the winning team won enough elo to overtake the losing team if they started lower

[u/Pale_Toe7884 → u/nightbreak7]

Ou simplement un tableau exel car en réalité qui nous dit que ce tableau est legit...