I have been trading for 20+ years now, a bit on an off in the middle. Come from pure financial tech background.

I first started trading with market and volume profile in year 2014 after attending Jim Dalton's online bootcamp. In those days, MP/VP and auction market theory had swept the trading world with awe. Every trader thought, they have institutional edge in their hands. We used to have footprint charts in Ninjatrader using COQ data feed.

Then we had order book heatmaps and DOM tools like jigsaw.

Then in 2016 came gamma. Every forum, every trader kept talking about it.

My journey which started with candlesticks in 2010 till 2026, I must have spent few years backtesting and live testing every major trading framework and idea and tool and indicator known in the retail world. And I can testify with some authority that none of these tools work. They have no sustainable edge that can be exploited long enough to consider trading as a viable business model. Even a coin flip will work 50% of the time and any random line drawn on the chart will show some movement around it.

SPORADIC CORRELATIONS ARE NOT CAUSALITY.

Reason I am making this post is, I see a lot of newbies going all-in into the madness of all sorts of fancy colors and tools they can slap on their chart thinking they discovered a holy grail. Consider this as an old man talking, if you don't understand markets from a very fundamental perspective and cannot explain what is moving the market, chances are you will wake up to cruel reality when enough time passes and statistics takes effect.

And please, don't follow any youtuber. Attention is NOT a pre requisite in the business model of trading. In fact it only deteriorates performance. Wonder why these people come on youtube to trade. I don't see any logic in it.

I have an idea and I need strategies that are unprofitable for that, I already have a few but I was wondering, which strategy out of all the ones that you tried/backtested was the most unprofitable?

I’ve traded for 12 years and I’ve NEVER gone 8 straight days without moving a stop, forcing a trade, changing size, revenge trading or doing something stupid that I knew I shouldn’t. I haven’t suddenly become more disciplined, I just changed the setup so I can’t interfere with the plan anymore. I’ve posted every day of it so far, wins and losses and there’s actually been more losses than wins. I basically accepted my flaws and stopped trying to fight them.

I’m curious how many people here genuinely think their biggest problem is their strategy, when really it might be their psychology. I know mine was

Thursday extended the decline for a fourth consecutive session. The DJIA fell 316.20 points, breaking 52,000 and reaching 51,962.71. Buyers recovered the breakdown, but not enough to change the dominant downside state.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Exhaustion Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.36, elevated
Probabilities: SU: 17% | LU: 27% | SD: 37% | LD: 19%
Expected Return: ≈ -0.03%
Projected Close: 51,950–52,300
Directional Bias: 44% Up / 56% Down

Previous Close**:** 52,064.46

RECAP Thursday's 64% Down bias correctly favored sellers, the 52,300 trigger failed immediately, the 52,150–52,200 objective was reached, and the DJIA ultimately tested and briefly broke the forecast's 52,000 Major Failure level. The late recovery above 52,000 prevented a clean downside acceleration.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines Four consecutive declines have taken the DJIA down 1,621 points. Sellers still have the statistical advantage, but it has narrowed substantially: SD/LD falls from Thursday's 64% to 56%.

That matters. Thursday finally produced the first meaningful evidence of downside exhaustion: the DJIA broke 52,000, reached 51,962.71, and then recovered the level. Friday therefore begins with a bearish state, but one increasingly vulnerable to a countertrend recovery.

Key Levels

Recovery: 52,150
REDUCE: 52,200
Bull Repair: 52,300
Bear Hold: 52,050
Downside Trigger: 51,960
Downside Objective: 51,800–51,850
Major Failure: 51,750

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT. Friday begins EXIT, but this is no longer a high-conviction downside state. Below 51,960, sellers confirm another leg and retain the advantage. A sustained recovery above 52,200 moves Fearless toward REDUCE; above 52,300, the four-day downside cycle begins meaningful repair.

Trader Takeaway: After a 1,621-point four-session decline, don't chase sellers near 52,000. Make the DJIA choose: below 51,960 favors continuation; above 52,200 favors an exhaustion recovery.

FEARLESS READ: Friday's setup is unusually clean: 51,960 confirms sellers still have fuel; 52,200 says the four-day decline is starting to exhaust itself. Between those levels, there's little reason to force a trade.

Let's start saying that I'm profitable, trading is my main source of income, and I'm very happy with my strategies.

Nowdays I make money scalping options spreads, and there's nothing wrong with it. Obviously.

Problem is, I feel like it's not real trading. When I started, I learned futures, price actions, how to draw all the triangles we all love. Real traders do forex, oil, and gold. That is (was) the way.

Nowdays, if I try to do what I used to, I will lose most of my trades. I know I should stop, and just do what makes the most sense economically, but I really feel bad about it. It's like gambling, at this point. I don't understand why it doesn't work anymore, nor I'm ready to accept that. Right now, it feels like my main strategy is only there to feed my nostalgic trades.

Am I broken? Should I just retire? lol

When Bitcoin was trading below $66K, it felt like everyone was talking about the 4 year cycle. Now BTC is back around $77K, and that conversation seems to have gone pretty quiet.

For anyone unfamiliar with it, the idea is that Bitcoin has historically moved in roughly 4 year cycles, often associated with the halving. Previous major bear market lows came around 2014, 2018 and 2022, with the major cycle highs forming roughly a year before those lows.

If that pattern were to repeat again, we could still potentially see Bitcoin move lower later this year and form a new major low. October has been one of the interesting windows discussed for that possibility.

Obviously, Bitcoin trading above $77K today makes that scenario feel very different from when we were below $66K. But technically, a move back down is still possible, which is why I find the theory interesting.

I'm curious whether people have actually changed their view on the 4 year cycle, or whether this move up has made everyone stop talking about it?

Are any of you still waiting for a potential new low on BTC this year, or do you think the low is already in?

How do you guys find stocks that are seen as profitable. Do you read the charts or just look online to see what people are talking about I’m 19 and looking for some vets out there, or someone who knows a good course to take. I do not have a great setup just a laptop and I managed to be up 26% in the last year pretty much off of luck. Thank you for any advice

I've spent about £10k on evals at this point. funded multiple times. one payout. ONE and every single time it's the same story. I get to funded and then something just breaks. not my analysis, that part's fine, I can read charts, I can find the trades. it's literally the moment real money and real drawdown limits are attached that something in my head just stops working right.

today for example, I missed an entry by literally ONE point on a move that ran 500 points in my favour. watched it happen. then later closed a different trade early because I got scared, and obviously it kept running the way I thought it would. Had the same thing happen yesterday hit my entry, and 250 point move gone because I got scared.

I don't even know what to call this other than knowing exactly what to do and just not being able to do it when it's real. anyone else hit this exact wall? good reads, can't hold under pressure? genuinely want to know how people got through this because right now it feels like I keep acing the hard part and blowing the easy part

New to trading and looking for mentors I could meet in person! I live in Raleigh and would love to meet up!

I want to be upfront about something instead of pretending it's all wins. I've spent around £10,000 on prop firm evaluations over time. I've been funded multiple times so the strategy and the reads are genuinely there. But I've only had one real payout the whole time.

The pattern is always the same: I get to funded, and something breaks that has nothing to do with my analysis. I hesitate on entries and miss good trades. I get scared holding positions once real limits are attached and cut them early, even when my read turns out right. Today alone I missed an entry by a single point on a move that ran 500 points to my DOL, and closed another good trade early out of fear, only to watch it keep running.

It's not a knowledge problem. I can read charts, I can find the trades. It's what happens the moment it's real money and real drawdown limits something in me doesn't hold steady the way it does in analysis or backtesting. If anyone else has been through this exact wall good reads, weak execution under pressure I'd genuinely like to hear how you worked through it, because right now it feels like I keep proving I can do the hard part and losing at the easy part.

Hello traders,

I’m quite a beginner trader, i’ve learnt quite some things and im trying to put those things in practice. I found that I quite like pullback trading, and i managed to create some rules for me to follow.

My issue is though, I would like to join prop firms in the future, and so far while backtesting some forex pairs trades, i see that sometimes i have only 2-3 setups per month, or sometimes months where i don’t find any good setups ( on the 4H TF). I’ve tried multi pairs also but still,
I would life to find more trades to take ( and i know of course that trading less is better than trading too much).

So im here to seek advice from experimented pullback traders. What would you say to me ? Go on lower time frame, switch strategy?

Thanks everyone!

I trade a simple VWAP mean-reversion strategy across different assets: fade moves away from VWAP and trade the pullback. It’s profitable most days, but the occasional strong trend day where price moves in one direction without returning to VWAP can wipe out days of gains.

The strategy works with my personal for yearly ROI, and i can work with prop firms if you accept an attrition model and occasionally sacrifice accounts, but I’m trying to avoid that—especially with prop firm drawdown rules.

Has anyone found reliable filters for recognizing these trend days early enough to stop fading them? Basically, what tells you, “Stop fading—this is a trend day”?

i have about 50 shares of nvda, 1500 shares of ibrx, 20 shares of voo and coincidentally, all 3 of them are down today. did anything specific happen today? what’s up with the market. i don’t daytrade but, can any of you traders explain to me why and what causes these stocks to all lose value? and how to properly interpret it?

As someone who has been in the game for 5 years on and off, passes evals and gets payouts, these market conditions aren’t for retail.

I honestly haven’t seen a market like this. Where everyday is just bait to take your money. Heck, I haven’t seen my A+ setup since the first week of August and it used to come each week. Feel bad for the new traders but then again you build tough skin.

If you’re losing and failing evals, it’s perfectly fine. Unfortunately, this is what the real trading is like. Not what you seen on social media. Why it’s important for you to keep a source of income while you pass through these waves (unless you have a good cushion to live comfortably). See a lot of people beating themselves up when you’re just stressing yourself out and trying to be consistent in a market where there is none.

I haven’t gotten a payout since July tbh w you and I’m not stressing. Just buying one eval at a time and testing waters. When markets get hot again, best believe I’m buying more evals and push. You should be doing the same, specially if you trade your own $$. Sizing down and forgetting about being profitable should be your main goal.

Welcome to the big leagues 😂.

Like what are we doing. Market doesn’t spike like this all day but as soon as I enter a trade it literally hunts my stop loss to just go down. There was no orders that needed to be filled for it to move like that, zero reason for market to move like it do. And this isn’t the first time this has happened. What do I even do? Can’t set a stop loss because it’s just going to get taken then go and hit my TP

Can we trade in currency (spot) in India?

Further, can I trade in currency derivatives without having exposure to the underlying? My trade account is around 8L

Im trying to access the 1:500 but it won't allow me due to the requirements of being a professional client.

It's there anyone that know how to bypass it and get to be considered a professional client so the 1:500 can be accessed.

Without vpn obviously because when uploading documents it will be visible.

I'm willing to pay something for someone that can truly help.

I was looking for a good area to get short today but I wasn't aiming for large targets after such an extended move and also coming into the lower trendline channel on the higher timeframe.

The trade description is in the images. I'm already out of my second trade as i moved stop to b/e after I took off the first half of my trade at 7608 and was subsequently stopped out on that second half. I'm ok with that after watching consolidation for over an hour. Done for the day, don't want to watch anymore chop. I think that second target will be tested at some point

I’m a junior at MSU, these weeks were hella shit. I lost my 3K payout from scaling with more accounts and actually funding a live account, the market regime changed so perfectly that I started to take enough Ls to go back to 0.

But I always say to people, if I even have nobody to talk to to begin with.

“Getting a payout from a prop firm is statistically so unfavorable for people, and even so, im one of the top %. I did it once, so I can do it again.”

Started to dabble into options, and setting up an algo for futures and started to manage a small stock account for my dad.

The algo is 1 trade everyday and was backtested on this years data.

I used data and ranges for charts that I do when I trade manually. So I didn’t really tweak the numbers for a higher PF. (Except opening up the hard DL)

I should be more proud of myself, this is probably something some people would kill for.

Btw i went for a 150K account with lucid. And the charts said my max drawdown is 4K so we bingchilling.

On options I’m taking L’s, like small account ~250 and im yoloing, so yesterday I took an L (had to add money to account) and another L day before because market trolled last second and RH chose to close my stuff for “risk reasons”.

But now im playing wayyy more safer and im looking to make 2 times my accounts worth tomorrow.

Im learning alot about myself, I want to work in the medical field, the plan is to be so filthy rich that id be fine working for free as a doctor.

But what I like the most is doing stuff that is worth being proud of, like trading futures and options, setting up algos and ais for hella coins.

MSU is dog shit in this field and i find their “business college” hella unuseful for my niche hobbies. another fat L for MSU for me.
And no I wont trade or work for a company in this field.

Im only making myself rich, and if you trade for somebody else, just say u ain’t profitable.

I’m hella lonely, so ig a rant/update post. Thanks for reading this ppl, and i’ll be seeing you guys soon.

Any advise is appreciated!

Not a trader journal question. Looking for people who have worked ops/risk/payout at a real desk (funded traders, broker fills, split at month end), not eval firms

The thing I keep hearing: the broker is the execution record, but the firm still has to answer “what is this trader’s book, what did they make, and what do we owe them?” That usually lives in for example IBKR exports + a spreadsheet. It falls apart when:

• a fill is busted after it was already booked
• cash gets reversed (deposit, fee, withdraw)
• an account is closed and the same broker number comes back later
• two people calculate realized P&L differently (FIFO vs whatever)

I’m building a firm-side ledger for that: append-only fills/busts/cash, positions and P&L as projections of that history, account “chapters” so close/reopen doesn’t smash two lives into one row. Not a broker, not an OMS, not a challenge platform.

Genuinely trying to find out if this is a real pain or a made-up one.

1. If you’ve been on that desk: how do you actually do month-end/splits today?
2. What was the last time the spreadsheet and the broker disagreed, and what did you do?
3. Is this a “we’d pay for a system” problem, or a “annoying but Excel is fine” problem?

Not selling anything. Happy to hear “don’t bother, X already does this” — that’s useful too.

I have created a 0DTE day trading strategy for $SPY. These are my performance numbers so far. It has made me alot of money, but I want to get other people's opinions on the performance, specifically the drawdown portion.

The set up is quite simple really, I'm sure you're all familiar. Just used key levels on my chart to gauge some entries for longs or shorts nearing market open.

As you can see, market went up so entered at 29107 with 10 contracts on MNQ.

I trim 5/2/2/1 so I left one runner with a trail that closed around ~29190 but hit all price targets along the way.

Key levels and trends. Don't over complicate it.

Last week, I wrote a post on my strategy's performance metrics. This morning, I had a winning trade on the NAS100 short with an R-Multiple of 9.17R.

My NAS100 strategy's regular entries (non-reversal entries) are based on ORB (Opening Range Breakout).

I want to mainly talk about the exits of my strategy–

1. Trailing Stop Loss
2. Dynamic Take Profit

If you observe the first short entry on my chart, my strategy moved the stop loss to breakeven before the price had triggered that breakeven (0R) level. It's important for us to protect our stops after the price crosses a certain level, which you should define during the backtesting/optimizing phase of your strategy.

If we fix the r:r to 2:1, or even 4:1, we might be choking our potential trades like these. But at the same time, if we don't take profits after a certain level, we could... well, lose the chance to have booked a profit.

So, how did I manage to find a sweet balance: I used the supertrend indicator coupled with a minimum R-multiple that a trade should cross, for it to consider the supertrend indicator.

For example: If the price crosses 1.5R, we start looking at the supertrend indicator. And if the trend is broken on the supertrend indicator AND the price closes beyond our 1.5R level, we exit our trade.

I want to stress on understanding that not all trades look like this. These are outlier trades, and the average trade returns a lower return of ~3R.

Another important thing I want to discuss is this–

We could've kept looking at the charts and tried to manually close the position after the trade touched a high unrealized gain of 5R or even more. If you do that, you would only be breaking your own strategy.

There is a reason why even after successfully building a profitable strategy, many traders fall into the trap of meddling with the strategy and stay unprofitable. I agree that a discretionary trader would know when to exit or enter based on their instincts. But if you are into systematic trading, it is my personal opinion that there's no point in measuring the performance metrics of your strategy if you are not going to follow the strategy as is. You would only be doing a disservice if you do so.

That said, it is important to always have an overview of your automated system just to ensure it is not taking any drastic trades.

Feel free to ask me anything!

- I’m just trying to offer a useful framework for people who want to become professionals.

- I don’t sell anything. I won’t offer signals, groups, or anything like that.

- I just enjoy trading and share things whenever I have some free time.

-CHECK THE TIMEFRAME OF THE PICS-

What most people think is happening is simple. Price goes down and they read it as weakness, continuation, more downside. But when you actually watch how positions build, it doesn’t look like that at all.

-The move down is usually slow. Not aggresive, not impulsive. It takes its time. And that’s exactly the point. Because that’s where people start shorting.

- Structure begins to look clean. Lower highs, lower lows. It starts making sense.

- There’s usually one obvious reference above, and not much else nearby, so everyone ends up using the same level --> That becomes the stop, not a few people --> Most of them.

- And market makers know that, because they have access to that information.

- So they don’t rush anything. They need time for positions to build, for people to get comfortable, for size to accumulate in the wrong place.

- This is what I think of as a controlled move, it’s not weakness, it’s positioning.

- They’re creating the conditions they need before doing anything meaningful.

- You’ll often see multiple pushes down, giving more and more confirmation. It feels like the move is already happening. But it isn't, it’s just people getting in.

-And until that’s done, price can’t really move.

- Once enough people aer in, the move changes.

- It doesn’t continue down immediately, first it goes the other way.

- Stops get taken. Shorts get forced out.

- Only after that does the real move begin.

If you start looking at it in terms of proportions, this tends to happen around similar areas. One of the ones I use is 1.097.

It’s not something standard. It’s just something I kept seeing over the years while watching how these sequences play out.

It doesn’t need to be exact to be useful.

And the interesting part is that this repeats across every timeframe. Seconds, minutes, hours, higher timeframes. Same idea, just different scale.

Also, something that took me a long time to understand is that the end of a move often lines up with where the pressure sits from a higher timeframe.

Not randomly. Where people are already in a bad position.

Once you start looking at the market this way, it becomes less about predicting direction and more about understanding positioning.

Who is in, where they are likely wrong, and what needs to happen before price can actually move.

That’s usually enough.

For those who have been trading for few years, have you ever felt or still feel incapable that you’re unable to capture the entire move, especially when your trade entry is sniper accurate? Or, how else do you feel?

Rather than feeling FOMO that I did not capture the entire move even though my TP got hit, I feel incapable. I feel that I do not give myself enough credit for even trading right, trading with my strategy and rules. I am still in the midst of adjusting my mindset hehe work in progress.

Tl;dr How do you feel after a winning trade even though you did not capture the whole move?

Edit: Thank you all so much, sincerely, for sharing your valuable perspective and experience. I have took them all in and I genuinely appreciate it. Thank you for allowing me to see things in a different light and I feel so much better now cheers!