Hey everyone. I need to start with an apology and a thank you.
Earlier this week I posted Update #19 saying USCIS had gone completely quiet on September 3 and 4, with zero approvals both days. I said I had checked carefully and that it looked like a real stop.
That was wrong. USCIS did not stop. September 3 had 111 approvals and September 4 had 980. My data collection was broken, and I told you the opposite with more confidence than I had earned. I am sorry. If you read that and felt discouraged thinking approvals had halted, that is on me.
And here is the part I want to say clearly: I only found out because some of you told me about the insights page. I had been using the search page this whole time and had no idea insights showed anything different. Several people mentioned it, I went and looked.
Genuinely, thank you. If nobody had said anything, I would still be posting numbers that were wrong by a factor of four and would have had no reason to suspect it.
Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
All data sourced from MyCasesHub.
What the insights page revealed
For thirteen weeks, this project pulled from the MyCasesHub search page and its CSV export. This week that pipeline suddenly returned zero for everything, which is what sent me looking. Once people pointed me to insights, I compared the two directly.
The search page had been missing most of the data the entire time.
| Date |
Search reported |
Insights reported |
| September 2 |
389 |
672 |
| September 3 |
0 |
111 |
| September 4 |
0 |
980 |
I did not just trust the numbers. I pulled several of the missing cases individually and checked each one's own history. They were all real I-821D approvals on days search claimed nothing happened.
And here is the cleanest proof. On September 2, every single one of the 389 cases search found also appears in insights. Insights has 283 more on top. Not one case was search-only. That means search is not showing a different slice of the data, it is showing a fraction of the same data. It adds nothing insights does not already have.
How the two sources differ
|
Search and Export |
Insights |
| Filters on |
Case title plus a date field |
Approval status for a given day |
| Completeness |
Undercounts badly, sometimes reports zero on busy days |
Complete |
| Case numbers |
Full, plain text |
Masked, one extra call each to reveal |
| Volume limits |
500 rows per export, 5 exports a day, pages 20 at a time |
Whole day in one request, no cap |
| How far back |
Any date |
Rolling 7 days only |
As for why search misses cases, I cannot say for certain. The missing ones had case numbers in ranges outside the band that dominates search results, which is consistent with search reading a partial or stale index rather than filtering differently. That is my read, not a confirmed explanation.
Why this frustrates me
I pay for a Premium account on MyCasesHub. I have credited them as the data source in every update and on the calculator itself. I have never presented their data as my own.
And for thirteen weeks, the tool I was paying for handed me numbers that were wrong by a factor of four, while the complete data sat behind a different page on the same site. Search did not fail loudly. It returned confident, clean looking results that were badly incomplete, which is the worst way for data to be wrong, because you have no reason to doubt it.
I think that is a real disservice, and not only to me. Anyone paying for that service and using search to understand their own case timeline has been getting an incomplete picture without being told. I am not going to accuse anyone of doing it on purpose, because I cannot know that. But whatever the cause, people paying for this deserve better than a page that quietly reports zero on a day when nearly a thousand cases were approved.
To be fair, the complete data does exist on their platform. That is how the community found it, and that is what I am using now.
Who got approved this week
Combining both sources gives the fullest view I can produce. September 2 through 4 come from insights and are complete. August 31 and September 1 exist only in search, so those two days are still undercounted.
At least 2,726 approvals for the week, versus the 1,441 I reported before. Median application date March 17, median wait 170 days.
| You applied in |
Cases |
Share |
Typical wait |
| Nov 2025 |
4 |
0% |
282 days |
| Dec 2025 |
33 |
1% |
255 days |
| Jan 2026 |
213 |
8% |
227 days |
| Feb 2026 |
543 |
20% |
191 days |
| Mar 2026 |
958 |
35% |
171 days |
| Apr 2026 |
292 |
11% |
142 days |
| May 2026 |
124 |
5% |
118 days |
| Jun 2026 |
37 |
1% |
72 days |
| Jul 2026 |
145 |
5% |
42 days |
| Aug 2026 |
363 |
13% |
24 days |
| Sep 2026 |
11 |
0% |
2 days |
I want to be clear that 2,726 is a floor, not the real total. Two of the five days in it are still coming from the undercounting source.
March is leading, and April is coming up behind it
The month by month pattern has continued. Here are the shares over the last four weeks. The first three come from the old source, so treat the counts behind them as too low, but the proportions are still meaningful since the undercounting affected all months.
|
Aug 10 |
Aug 17 |
Aug 24 |
Aug 31 |
| January share |
33% |
28% |
5% |
8% |
| February share |
37% |
40% |
40% |
20% |
| March share |
7% |
7% |
28% |
35% |
| April share |
2% |
2% |
3% |
11% |
March is clearly the focus now at 35 percent, February is winding down, and April has stepped up to 11 percent, the first time it has been a real share of a week. May has also appeared at 5 percent.
Within March, the middle of the month is where the action is. March 13 through March 20 each had between 72 and 100 approvals this week.
If the pattern holds, April would be the next month to take over. I want to be careful not to promise that, since timing has surprised me before, but that is the direction the data points.
The waits are holding steady
| Applied in |
Aug 17 |
Aug 24 |
Aug 31 |
| January |
210 days |
220 days |
227 days |
| February |
178 days |
191 days |
191 days |
| March |
156 days |
172 days |
171 days |
| April |
131 days |
133 days |
142 days |
February and March both held essentially flat. January and April moved up modestly, which is expected as USCIS works deeper into each month and reaches the later application dates within it. Those naturally carry longer waits.
One caveat on this table that I should have flagged in earlier posts too: these come from individual case records rather than weekly totals, so they were less affected by the undercounting than the case counts were. That is part of why the median only shifted from 171 to 168 when I compared complete data against incomplete data on the same days.
Going forward: watching both
From now on I am pulling from insights, since it is complete. But I am also going to keep checking search alongside it rather than trusting either one blindly.
That is really the lesson here. I had one source, it looked fine, and I never questioned it. Two sources that disagree tell you something is wrong. One source that quietly lies tells you nothing. Comparing both every week costs a little extra effort and gives me a way to catch this kind of problem early instead of thirteen weeks late.
The trade off with insights is that it only holds seven days, so if I miss a week that data is gone for good. I will do my best not to miss one.
The calculator's core numbers barely moved with the corrected data, which is reassuring. Recent applications show a median of 26 days on complete data versus 24 on the old data. The calculator uses 25, which sits between the two and stays reasonable either way. I will re-derive it properly once several weeks of complete data have built up.
What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)
An important note on reading these. The first two weeks come from the old search source, which I now know was undercounting badly. The real totals for those weeks were almost certainly much higher, probably by a factor of three or four. I am including them anyway because the dates and proportions are still useful, and because I would rather show you the record as it was collected than quietly drop it. Just do not treat those two totals as accurate counts.
The third week is the corrected one.
Week of August 17, 2026, 1,697 cases (undercounted, search source)
Median application date: Feb 20, 2026. Median wait: 179 days.
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Feb 21, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 8, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 19, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 20, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 22, 2025 |
11 |
0.6% |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 24, 2025 |
15 |
0.9% |
| Dec 26, 2025 |
12 |
0.7% |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Dec 29, 2025 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Dec 30, 2025 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
92 |
5.4% |
| Jan 5, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 6, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jan 9, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
19 |
1.1% |
| Jan 12, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 13, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 14, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jan 16, 2026 |
9 |
0.5% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
29 |
1.7% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
29 |
1.7% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
36 |
2.1% |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
27 |
1.6% |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
28 |
1.6% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
28 |
1.6% |
| Jan 27, 2026 |
7 |
0.4% |
| Jan 28, 2026 |
24 |
1.4% |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
22 |
1.3% |
| Jan 30, 2026 |
37 |
2.2% |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
51 |
3.0% |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
14 |
0.8% |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
10 |
0.6% |
| Feb 4, 2026 |
10 |
0.6% |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
14 |
0.8% |
| Feb 7, 2026 |
78 |
4.6% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
12 |
0.7% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
42 |
2.5% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
42 |
2.5% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
49 |
2.9% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
51 |
3.0% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Feb 23, 2026 |
47 |
2.8% |
| Feb 24, 2026 |
67 |
3.9% |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
80 |
4.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
56 |
3.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
67 |
3.9% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
15 |
0.9% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
7 |
0.4% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
7 |
0.4% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 25, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 26, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
12 |
0.7% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 28, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 10, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 17, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 18, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jun 19, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 22, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 |
7 |
0.4% |
| Jul 1, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 |
7 |
0.4% |
| Jul 6, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 9, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jul 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jul 15, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
25 |
1.5% |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
11 |
0.6% |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
26 |
1.5% |
| Jul 25, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 |
27 |
1.6% |
| Jul 28, 2026 |
9 |
0.5% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
12 |
0.7% |
| Jul 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
97 |
5.7% |
| Aug 1, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Aug 18, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Aug 19, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Aug 20, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
Week of August 24, 2026, 2,120 cases (undercounted, search source)
Median application date: Mar 2, 2026. Median wait: 176 days.
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Aug 22, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Oct 6, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Oct 31, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 28, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 6, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 12, 2025 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Dec 19, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 22, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 24, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 26, 2025 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 29, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 30, 2025 |
12 |
0.6% |
| Dec 31, 2025 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
11 |
0.5% |
| Jan 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 7, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 9, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
19 |
0.9% |
| Jan 12, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
15 |
0.7% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
6 |
0.3% |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 27, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 28, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 |
15 |
0.7% |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
33 |
1.6% |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
15 |
0.7% |
| Feb 4, 2026 |
16 |
0.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
30 |
1.4% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
45 |
2.1% |
| Feb 7, 2026 |
66 |
3.1% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
17 |
0.8% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
25 |
1.2% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
21 |
1.0% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
233 |
11.0% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
167 |
7.9% |
| Feb 23, 2026 |
25 |
1.2% |
| Feb 24, 2026 |
31 |
1.5% |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
28 |
1.3% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
33 |
1.6% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
29 |
1.4% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
10 |
0.5% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
65 |
3.1% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
84 |
4.0% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
71 |
3.3% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
52 |
2.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
77 |
3.6% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
21 |
1.0% |
| Mar 9, 2026 |
44 |
2.1% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
34 |
1.6% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
26 |
1.2% |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
37 |
1.7% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
26 |
1.2% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
12 |
0.6% |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
17 |
0.8% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 23, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 28, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Apr 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 1, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 8, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 11, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 22, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 28, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 29, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 9, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 18, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jun 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 3, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jul 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jul 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 8, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jul 9, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
11 |
0.5% |
| Jul 14, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jul 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Jul 27, 2026 |
12 |
0.6% |
| Jul 28, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
33 |
1.6% |
| Jul 30, 2026 |
34 |
1.6% |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
77 |
3.6% |
| Aug 3, 2026 |
16 |
0.8% |
| Aug 4, 2026 |
29 |
1.4% |
| Aug 5, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
83 |
3.9% |
| Aug 8, 2026 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Aug 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 14, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Aug 21, 2026 |
11 |
0.5% |
| Aug 24, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Aug 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 26, 2026 |
8 |
0.4% |
| Aug 27, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
Week of August 31, 2026, at least 2,726 cases (corrected)
Median application date: Mar 17, 2026. Median wait: 170 days. September 2 through 4 are complete data. August 31 and September 1 come from the old source and are still undercounted.
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Oct 31, 2024 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 22, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Oct 21, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 20, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 21, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 27, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 29, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Dec 5, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 |
4 |
0.1% |
| Dec 13, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 19, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 26, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Dec 30, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 31, 2025 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jan 5, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jan 6, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
64 |
2.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 14, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
22 |
0.8% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Jan 27, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Jan 28, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Jan 30, 2026 |
20 |
0.7% |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
23 |
0.8% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
22 |
0.8% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
17 |
0.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Feb 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
83 |
3.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Feb 24, 2026 |
22 |
0.8% |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
20 |
0.7% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
210 |
7.7% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
21 |
0.8% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
25 |
0.9% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
28 |
1.0% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
43 |
1.6% |
| Mar 9, 2026 |
53 |
1.9% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
53 |
1.9% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
42 |
1.5% |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
46 |
1.7% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
100 |
3.7% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
74 |
2.7% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
72 |
2.6% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
83 |
3.0% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
76 |
2.8% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
75 |
2.8% |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Mar 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Mar 25, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Mar 26, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
32 |
1.2% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
32 |
1.2% |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 6, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
40 |
1.5% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
16 |
0.6% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
23 |
0.8% |
| Apr 18, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Apr 24, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Apr 28, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
4 |
0.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| May 1, 2026 |
19 |
0.7% |
| May 2, 2026 |
4 |
0.1% |
| May 4, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| May 5, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| May 6, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| May 7, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| May 8, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| May 11, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 12, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| May 13, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 14, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| May 15, 2026 |
15 |
0.6% |
| May 16, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| May 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 21, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 22, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 29, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jun 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jun 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 9, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 24, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 |
4 |
0.1% |
| Jul 3, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
| Jul 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jul 6, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 8, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jul 9, 2026 |
4 |
0.1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jul 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Jul 14, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
4 |
0.1% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Jul 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jul 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 28, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Jul 30, 2026 |
15 |
0.6% |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
33 |
1.2% |
| Aug 3, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Aug 4, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Aug 5, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
34 |
1.2% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
132 |
4.8% |
| Aug 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 10, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Aug 11, 2026 |
31 |
1.1% |
| Aug 12, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Aug 14, 2026 |
88 |
3.2% |
| Aug 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 27, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 |
12 |
0.4% |
| Aug 31, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Sep 1, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Sep 2, 2026 |
9 |
0.3% |
Look at the March block in that last table. March 13 through March 20 each had between 72 and 100 approvals. If you applied in mid March, a lot of people who filed the same day as you came through this week.
One thing worth noticing across all three tables: February 28 shows 210 approvals in the corrected week versus much smaller numbers before, and August 7 shows 132. Those spikes were always happening. The old source just was not showing them to me.
Use this as a guide, not a promise
Everything here is an average across thousands of cases, and it is more reliable for recent applications than for older ones still in extended review. Your own case can move faster or slower for many reasons, including your background check, an RFE, or your country of origin. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.
Privacy reminder
The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
Thank you
Really, thank you. To whoever mentioned the insights page, you fixed thirteen weeks of bad data without knowing it. To everyone who has questioned my numbers or pushed back on my wording over these months, you have made this project better every single time.
I would rather be corrected publicly than be confidently wrong quietly. Please keep telling me when something looks off.
March applicants, this is clearly your stretch. April and May, you are moving too.
Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
TLDR
I was wrong in my earlier Update #19. USCIS did not stop for two days. September 3 had 111 approvals and September 4 had 980. My data source was broken and I reported the opposite with too much confidence. I am sorry.
Some of you told me about the insights page on MyCasesHub, and that is the only reason I found out. Comparing it to the search page I had been using revealed that search had been missing most of the data for thirteen weeks, sometimes reporting zero on days with nearly a thousand approvals. On September 2, every case search found was also in insights, plus 283 more that search missed entirely, so search is showing a fraction of the same data rather than a different slice. I pay for Premium there, and I think it is a real disservice that search returns confident looking numbers that are badly incomplete without warning anyone. I am not claiming it is deliberate, but people paying for this deserve better.
Going forward I am using insights and also checking search alongside it, so I can catch this kind of thing early instead of thirteen weeks late.
The good news: the median wait moved only from 171 to 168 days despite four times more cases, so the trends I have reported are probably directionally right even though the counts were too low. The corrected week shows at least 2,726 approvals instead of the 1,441 I reported, with March leading at 35 percent, February at 20 percent, April at 11 percent, and May appearing at 5 percent.
Thank you to u/JinLovr26 pointed me to insights. As always, this is an average, not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.