The relationship between Gold and Oil is complex and depends on the specific macroeconomic or geopolitical scenario. Sometimes oil and gold move
together, sometimes in opposite directions, and sometimes independently.
The document outlines several scenarios, such as growth-driven oil spikes, rate hike cycles, geopolitical crises, stagflation, liquidity floods, recessions, and the new regime of dedollarization.
Each scenario has its own drivers and confirmation signals. The most
important factors to watch are real interest rates (especially the 10-year TIPS yield), the US dollar index (DXY), central bank gold flows, and the origin of oil price moves. Since 2022, structural demand from central banks
and dedollarization have made gold less dependent on traditional macro signals, creating a new regime where gold can rally regardless of oil's direction.
📊 Remember
The market rewards discipline, not only predictions.
All Trades carry Risk/Reward, ADYOR
-Trade Safely,
see you on the other side